Cheddar Please
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Posts posted by Cheddar Please
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6 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:
Better hold than JW on the same day for DPW 👀
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9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:
*side note: Empire has been crazy accurate in his Deadpool projections. He called $200M OW months ago and said likely $100M second weekend last week.
Tbf he always goes very optimistic on his predictions so is projections are only extremely accurate if the movie is blowing up
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4 minutes ago, divesyn said:
Based on the avg trade underestimation for big event movies lately, I predict the actuals will be quite a bit higher...
Spoiler99.8M
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2 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
Yes , only Iron Man , The First Avengers , Black Panther and GOTG 3 have better holds in second weekend ( without previews)
BP: 176M > 111M (-37%)
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2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:
If it can stay above $1M on Monday that would mean Tuesday would also be a consecutive day over $1M which would move it to a T7 with Ghostbusters, Back to the Future, and Shrek 2 with 54 days.
Wednesday would also likely be above 1M due to the Apple Pay promotion
Assuming Sunday stays even with Friday, extrapolating from last Monday's drop would give a figure of 1.11M, so as long as Thursday can hold within 10% of Monday it would make it to 59 days above 1M, tying Finding Nemo and placing only 2 days behind TPM (which opened on a Wednesday) -
Also for context, counting only true FSS OW makes Deadpool's drop this week look even more impressive:
JW: 190M > 106M (-44.3%)
A1: 188M > 103M (-45.3%)DPW: 173M > 95M (-45.1%)
TLK: 168M > 72M (-57.2%)
I2: 164M > 80M (-51.2%)-
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With this weekend looking to be 95+ I think it's a safe bet to say that 600M is locked and loaded, heck with strong summer weekdays I'd argue that The Avengers post-OW gross of 415M is practically the baseline at this point.
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PG rating isn't all great though, mostly because it leads to very family skewed audience, which means much lower ticket avg due to an abundance of kids tickets, like IO2 would've basically a 700M grosser if it had a more normal ticket price avg
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58 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:
Over
It'd be really funny if JW IO2 and DPW all ended up within 5M of each other, especially if IO2 were to kick JW out of the Top 10 and itself immediately get kicked out by DPW
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:
This looks likely. 29 is possible.
29M would make the chances of a 100M weekend very likely
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5 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
If it does $28M FRI, here is the potential second weekend using the Second Weekend/Friday multiplier of other summer MCU movies
Ant-Man 1: $96.17M
Ant-Man 2: $96.64M
Thor 4: $94.75M
GOTG 1: $95.81M
That's what I'm getting from this too, 28
M Friday would definitely imply high 90M range, 100M we probably only be possible if it jumped up to ~29.5M and that's assuming it has basically identical IM as IO2 from Friday
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25 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Can DM4 get to 400M DOM?
Unlikely since it's still ~13m behind DM2, which finished at 368M, despite having gained on it very slowly. I think the best case for DM4 for at this point would be matching DM2/Minions 2. There definitely appears to be a hard cap on the series potential gross at this point
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$1M CLUB: WEDNESDAY
— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) August 1, 2024
1. D&W ($19M)
2. TWISTERS ($4.2M)
3. DM4 ($2.8M)
4. IO2 ($1.5M)
5. LONGLEGS ($1M)-
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12 minutes ago, Nero said:
666 yes or no 😈😈
Passion of the Christ 2 😉
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5 minutes ago, MattW said:
If IO2 holds even from here on out with toy story 4 it'll end at 651.6m, but over the last week it has lost about $2m to TS4. I have it penciled in at 648m which is a 4.2x multi
Toy Story 4 declined precipitously from its eighth week onwards so that's not exactly a fair comparison to make
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9 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:
Wow 27-28 range Tuesday, unbelievable, incredible
Huh?
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13 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:
Sure? Like 575 and 625 or something are also pretty realistically not going to be missed
I'd say around SMB is realistically the modal outcome but also the lower end of the projected range
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49 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Fuck it why not 100M+
Currently it's playing like an MCU Phase 3 movie, aka decent but not amazing trend, also July is when weekend jumps tend to be the weakest relative to the week, come back to me if Thursday ends up being over 20m
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1 minute ago, Ryan C said:
I'm actually willing to bet that the drop will be lower than 60%.
Even though the right comps for Deadpool and Wolverine would be the July MCU movies, almost all of them had a reason why they dropped as large as they did beyond just opening in the summer.
Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp had strong competition the week after (War for the Planet of the Apes and Skyscraper) that also took away most if not all of their PLF screens. They both had strong word-of-mouth to recover afterwards, but I'm sure their second weekend drops would've been smaller if they didn't lose PLFs so quickly.
It's easy to understand why Thor: Love and Thunder had a massive second weekend drop (despite not losing its PLFs), so that just leaves the first Ant-Man and Spider-Man: Far From Home. The former fell 56% and the latter fell 51% (though that one opened on a Tuesday).
Considering that Deadpool and Wolverine's word-of-mouth is very strong and it won't be losing any PLFs this weekend, I'm pretty confident that it won't drop any more than 60%. It probably won't achieve $100M in its second weekend (I would love to be surprised), but anything between $90M-$95M is still really damn good.
Regardless, Deadpool and Wolverine is for sure passing $500M domestically and $1B worldwide. I'm sorry but that's pretty f***ing awesome if you ask me!
my comparison for this movie currently falls between IW (2.63x) and TLK (2.83x), given that this movie seems to be trending right between those two comps rn we would be looking at a 55-60% drop this weekend, so about 85-95m, probably trending towards the higher end of that range given its decent Tuesday hold
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9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
There's also Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) which dropped 61.6% on second weekend, but had 2.86x legs, which would give DPW a $604M DOM total.
Speaking of which, Lion King 2019 had some pretty blegh legs for a kids/family movie during peak summer. With better WOM like Aladdin, it would've made $700M for around 72-73M admissions.
The funny thing is that TLK and I2 were pacing almost identically throughout the first 2 weeks. It was only when I2 hit July 4th weekend that it pulled ahead and didn't look baack
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7 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Expect DPW to have the same. If it increases significantly like 7-10% ish+ . Then we probably cooking.
Seeing 18-19m Thursday for now.
Personally I'm seeing DPW doing about 90% JW, so I'd say 18m Thursday and ~90m weekend rn
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Just now, Liiviig 1998 said:
Barbie Monday was 26M and that had 93m weekend . so would keep expectations in check.
Barbie was affected by severe spillover due to Oppenheimer hogging half the screens, so it's not a great comp here, but at the same time MCU films pretty much all have strong spillover effect on Monday so I'm not expecting any notable holds in the coming few days UNLESS Tuesday happens to be up from today
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24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Yeah basically this. It will leg to a boring $625M which is no billie or even $800-900M standard which we were looking for these films in 2019.
That said, if it start legging toward say $700M+, that might get interesting, chances of which are low right now.
So it looks like DPW is on track to basically duplicate I2 overall gross DOM and OS huh
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8 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:
So Inside Out 2 will end up nearly $156 million for second week.
This means the 3rd week for IO2, which also includes July 4 holiday boost, should be around $90-100+ million depending on the third weekend.
Ideally, it should do 100m third week (63m weekend/37m weekdays) assuming DM4 doesn't hit too hard, and even if it does, July 4th stands a chance at temporarily blunting its impact
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Weekday Numbers [Aug 05 - Aug 08, 2024] | Wednesday | 9.87M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 2.64M TWISTERS | 1.83M DESPICABLE ME IV
in Numbers and Data
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really? I was expecting the same drop as JW