Cheddar Please

So much for Top Gun taking a hit in the face of direct competition, $700 million should be secure if it keeps this up

Frozen had a limited release on it's opening weekend, so you have to take it's 12th weekend if adjusting for wide openings

Do you really think it'll drop that hard? that's a 35% drop from Monday, and I doubt Bullet Train will have nearly as great of an impact on this movie as Thor or JWD, especially given that it's already lost all of its PLFs and large screens.

Numbers for TG?

So I've been lurking/inactive for about a week now because unlike some people, BO numbers aren't the entirety of my existence, but what I can say is that the real tragedy of the past week has been Top Gun probably missing 700m

Deadline just confirmed this number with actuals

4.8m (tentative) to 4.71m? Technically if the estimates hold it's an increase, even if I expect them to go down

The fact that TGM is flat from last tuesday would suggest more of the former imo

That sounds great, but I feel like it's gonna end up lower. I've been let down too many times before by early estimates Edit: I forgot about AMC Tuesdays being a thing again. Looks like 2019's Tuesday bumps will suddenly materialize again out of seemingly nowhere from now on

Here's a fun fact, TGM has officially passed I2 launch aligned, and will pass TA this Wednesday: TA: $573.69m TGM: $571.48m I2: $553.53m This makes $650m an absolute lock, as TA did $623m despite making less than half of TGM's dallies at this point in it's run Here's how it tracks against other $600m contenders: TLJ: $604.81m JW: $612.6m IW: $644.17m BP: $633.18m Currently it's post OW total is tracking between Avatar and BP, BP's post OW total was $498m, Avatar's was $672m. If this continues (somewhat optimistic), its looking at a $585m post OW total, which would yield a final DOM haul of $711. Range currently looks to be $675-715m

He's dead jim

I was meaning to say that, it would be a MASSIVE red flag if Disney starts to with hold their BO returns after D+ releases. Such a move would just be absolutely despicable, and I doubt that BO tracking would ever recover from it

Might start to put my $700m hopes & dreams in the danger zone tho

This is probably the second most bulletproof franchise behind only the MCU (Toy Story ironically just lost said status)

updates on tuesday figures

Is this figure conservative as well

Which isn't out of the question, given the barren schedule from July - September

I mean currently the discussion is whether it can hit $700m or simply have to "settle" for mid $600m

My current projections for TGM: 5/29 126,707,459 126,707,459 6/02 78,896,552 205,604,011 6/05 90,037,011 295,641,022 -28.94% 6/09 47,702,914 343,343,936 -39.54% 6/12 51,855,344 395,199,280 -42.41% 6/16 26,968,265 422,167,545 -43.47% 6/19 44,655,075 466,822,620 -13.89% 6/23 24,400,204 491,222,824 -9.52% 6/26 30,500,000 521,722,824 -31.70% 7/01 16,277,176 538,000,000 -33.29% 7/03 27,000,000 565,000,000 -11.48% 7/07 15,000,000 580,000,000 -7.85% 7/10 15,000,000 595,000,000 -44.44% 7/14 8,000,000 603,000,000 -46.67% 7/17 11,000,000 614,000,000 -26.67% 7/21 6,000,000 620,000,000 -25.00% 7/24 8,000,000 628,000,000 -27.27% 7/28 4,500,000 632,500,000 -25.00% 7/31 6,000,000 638,500,000 -25.00% 8/04 3,500,000 642,000,000 -22.22% ~680,000,000 Note, I have these as base estimates. Assuming the movie can even slightly overperform these figures, $700m should be achievable

Now the question is which film will have the better legs, TGM or Elvis?

Did The Numbers really just add $176 to TGM's total so they could put it as #1

Neck and Neck!

Where we thinking this finishing? 2 films finishing just short of 1B would be pretty irritating ngl

The thing is, I feel like basically every Toy Story film since 2 has had the hurdle of having to justify it's existence in order to succeed at the box office. TS3 and TS4 made it look easy, but that's only because they were truly excellent films. On the other hand, Lightyear, clearly had nothing to justify itself beyond a corporate extension of a franchise that was clearly done, hence the precipitous drop in interest once the reviews came out. (Also Disney conditioning people to wait for D+ didn't help)