Flip

128k OW admissions for Moana 2, if it follows IO2 it will end at 652k admits. Its more likely it settles ~600k, with the possibility to pass Deadpool 3 for #2 of 2024 if it can reach 612k admissions

Mufasa Previews (T-16) 15 showtimes/94 tix sold (+4) .28x Moana 2 (T-16) [3.86m] .78x Inside Out 2 (T-16) [10.14m] probably heading for 4.5-5.5m in previews

Kraven Previews (T-9) 7 showtimes/37 tix sold (+10) .20x Venom 3 (T-9) [1.62m] .30x Alien: Romulus (T-9) [1.95m] 2.18x Borderlands (T-9) [2.83m] pretty good day, rising against all comps. Of course it only did so because numbers were dismal to begin with, but if you ignore that it’s not too bad.

Social reactions seem mixed-positive from what I’ve seen on Twitter. Main problem seems to be an unengaging story. I’m a bit surprised that there aren’t too many complaints about the animation (one review that called it “by-the-numbers” also called the animation “gorgeous” and “stunning”). A common praise was that the battle scenes were done well.

Michael is going to feast on a largely empty October

Both LOTR show count and tix sold are low for my theaters. this could possibly miss $10m especially considering Kraven has PLFs. However, at AMC Lincoln SQ and AMC Empire sales are marginally better. Nothing crazy, but not as horrible as they look elsewhere

Almost Guaranteed (>90%): Michael, Elio Maybe (>50%): PTA event film, Sinners, F1 Probably not (<35%): Mickey 17, ABBL, Running Man

Wildwood is based off a novel

Not sure if biopics are “original” but if they are Michael is guaranteed. I also think the Kendrick Lamar & Trey Parker movie is one to watch. We know so little about it right now, but it’s got potential.

Nothing I’d say has a good chance (>60%). I’m not sure if F1 counts as original but if it does I think it could possibly do $100m but it would require IMO a different release date; it’s going to get swamped where it currently is. Sinners unfortunately seems like the movie to tap out at $80-90m. PTA event film I’d say will probably get there if it gets strong reception since there’s no other blockbuster in August. Mickey 17 seems like a weird and divisive movie and there isn’t a big enough Boong Jong Ho/pattinson/cinephile crowd to get it over the hump.

345k on Monday for Moana 2.

probably heading for 2.5m admits

Since 2011: 1. TLK (2019): 20.537.945 (if you want to count it) 2. Incredibles 2: 10.615.273 3. Mario: 10.537.759 4. Finding Dory: 10.238.270 5. Frozen 2: 9.727.620 6. Frozen: 9.533.969 7. Inside Out 2: 9.155.556 8. ATSV: 8.189.810 9. Toy Story 4: 8.030.294 2010 and earlier the data is in weeks not weekends, but it's likely the Simpsons movie, Shrek 3, and Toy Story 3 would make it onto this list. 2024 is also FSS, while the other years are TFSS. Nevertheless Moana 2 should be #2 on the list. IMO BTSV can pass all of these movies except TLK 2019. link: http://www.insidekino.de/BO/AUS2024.htm

Kraven Previews (T-10) 4 showtimes/27 tix sold .16x Venom 3 (T-10) [1.30m] .25x Alien: Romulus (T-10) [1.63m] 1.8x Borderlands (T-10) [2.34m] Not sure why it is only showing in 1 out of the 3 theaters I track (I expect showtimes to increase substantially). Maybe LOTR is getting more screens as Warner Bros' big holiday play. I'll likely keep tracking this since it will be easy since #'s are so low.

Mufasa Friday Day One (T-18) 14 days of sales 19 showtimes/55 tix sold (+29) Missed Moana 2 Wednesday (T-18) [???] 1.77x The Wild Robot Friday (T-18) [18.14m] If I comped today's number with Moana T-19, it would spit out a comp of 15.84m which is in line with my expectations.