danziger

Yeah according to the-numbers it's lost $7m OS in the last two weeks. They also have Titanic $33m below BOM's number. BOM is falling apart too in other ways but we know it's way more accurate in these cases because their numbers have consistently aligned with what other credible outlets have reported.

Yeah the-numbers OS numbers have been going haywire at least since February. They used to have a weekly worldwide chart that updated for Avatar better than BOM. Screen Daily, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, all these sites are shells of what they used to be. BOM has only been updating on Mondays. This last week went from $1,629,261,577 to $1,630,416,209

Actuals increased $700k. Haven't seen a weekend number reported yet, but the week overall made $6.2m, as the total last week after actuals was $1,619,500,248 and it's now $1,625,718,655 (was at $1,625,000 with estimates yesterday). Previous week made $7.7m, so only a 19.5% drop. Week before that was $9.7m. So estimating a ratio based on the weekend data @kayumanggihas been posting, the 14th OS weekend probably made about $3.8m. Screen Daily didn't include Avatar in its world weekend top 10, which is weird since it certainly made enough to be there even just going off estimates.

14th weekend increased 10% with actuals, continuing to have a far higher PTA than other movies that are in way more theaters. 4th highest PTA among movies in 200+ theaters, 11% higher than the previous two weekends. On its 14th weekend exactly a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home's PTA was $550 lower than Avatar 2's, but it was in 1400 more theaters.

And with Titanic (21x for its original release) I think Cameron has the best multiplier for any $12+m opener. E.T. ($11.8m OW) had a 30x multiplier but its theater count increased 60% after opening weekend and the home video market was only in its infancy, so Titanic's multiplier is more impressive and the greatest of all time imo.

IIRC Avatar's 9.73 domestic multiplier (from opening weekend) was the best ever for any $30m+ opener. I hadn't checked to see whether that record still stands, but skimming through BOM's OW rankings, looks like it does (I didn't double-check so someone please correct me if I'm wrong). Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, with $36.2m OW & $351.7m post-OW, came extremely close and was constrained by opening on a Wednesday. @MikeQhas already posted a list showing Avatar: The Way of Water ranks 3rd all-time among $70+m openers. Once it exceeds 5.02, it will pass The Phantom Menace (though it also opened on a Wednesday) and rank 4th among $50+m openers. Astonishing given it is way harder to have a 5x multiplier now, especially for a $134m opener even in December.

Yeah but we know Avatar is much more popular in China and Russia, so it was never a fair comparison anyway. And as international markets continue growing and box office gets distributed more equitably across the world, Avatar's advantage will only increase.

Yeah, I'm not even a Marvel fan but will root for The Marvels just for that reason.

All-Time weekends:

First I appreciate the data you bring to these discussions, you clearly have great knowledge of the business, and this post isn't about shaming anyone's wrong predictions. I'm wrong all the time and have lower standing than anyone since I never even predicted anything for Avatar 2. Only posting this as a reminder of how massively the goalposts have shifted since OW. Ok, so you compared Avatar 2's multiplier from OWeek to Sherlock 2's without noting that even adjusting for CPI inflation, S2's OWeek was way smaller ($77.3m vs. A2's $197.7m), and then in the very next sentence you said "Make of those legs what you will." As @Dale Cooperpointed out, LOTR 1 would've been a much fairer (albeit still very flawed) comparison. By your own standard from four weeks ago, when you said "“but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January" and "let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward," Avatar 2's legs have achieved "truly rarified air": "IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)" You said that when the "benefit of holidays and the open field" was known. You thought A2 would be "topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago." That equals $530m (2.68x), which it passed yesterday on the precipice of having probably a top 5 all-time 5th weekend.

Like you said earlier this week, we can just look at what people here were projecting after Avatar's OW, that alone tells us its legs have been phenomenal and way beyond most expectations. It just had the 2nd-best 4th weekend of all-time. No worries about the doomsayers, in the long run they only make the Avatar franchise seem even more impressive than it is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_series Avatar sailed past the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise ($4.5 billion) last weekend. With Avatar 3 it will pass Middle-earth, Jurassic Park, X-Men, Batman, for 9th place at minimum (barring wars, pandemics, etc.). If it gets a China release, I'm betting it will get to #6 just from those 3 movies, and very possibly #5 depending on how these next DC movies perform.

In that interview he was talking about the 2D bluray release.

Hopefully they'll have both versions, but Cameron prefers the latter: