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JayPrimetown

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  1. Absolutely. Hangover Part 2 is the highest grossing pure live action comedy (unless you count Deadpool) for an opening weekend at $85.9 Million. It did a total domestic of $254.5 Million.
  2. It's not even going to be close. At a minimum, 2023 will finish 20% higher than 2022
  3. I think at this point Mission Impossible is now a movie made for the world and not truly geared towards an American audience. It's like James Bond in that regard and that's why international markets over index versus the US.
  4. I'm curious if we see studios start to double book large release dates again. Is this the outlier of outliers or is there an actual belief that counterprogramming could potentially benefit both films with a buzz around the weekend.
  5. T -1 Ticket Sales - No Hard Feelings (June 22, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 430 PM 11 270 4.07% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 630 PM 16 270 5.93% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 900 PM 15 270 5.56% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 415 PM 4 100 4.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 530 PM 2 182 1.10% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 700 PM 11 100 11.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 815 PM 5 182 2.75% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 945 PM 3 100 3.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 400 PM 26 60 43.33% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 640 PM 32 60 53.33% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 730 PM 17 66 25.76% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 920 PM 16 60 26.67% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 1010 PM 2 66 3.03% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 400 PM 3 57 5.26% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 640 PM 27 57 47.37% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 830 PM 6 35 17.14% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 930 PM 12 57 21.05% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1045 PM 1 134 0.75% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 400 PM 4 221 1.81% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 640 PM 19 221 8.60% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 930 PM 2 221 0.90% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 1040 PM 1 406 0.25% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 400 PM 4 76 5.26% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 530 PM 0 77 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 630 PM 15 76 19.74% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 800 PM 3 77 3.90% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 900 PM 5 76 6.58% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 1030 PM 0 77 0.00% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 42 810 5.19% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 25 664 3.77% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 93 312 29.81% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 49 340 14.41% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 26 1069 2.43% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 27 459 5.88% Total Sold 262 3654 7.17% While not as many total tickets sold as Asteroid City, the share among the theaters is much more evenly split which makes me believe this will have more widespread appeal. I saw it on Saturday and thought it is one of the better theaters comedies in some time. Should do well with the 30-45 crowd who misses the appeal of the 2000's comedies. I expect Fri and Sat evening will see this be a great date night alternative. I expect good walk up sales given the circumstance. $15 Million is certainly a possibility. No great comps for this one either. This will definitely serve as a good comp for Joy Ride in a few weeks though.
  6. T -1 Ticket Sales - Asteroid City (June 22, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 730 PM 62 241 25.73% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 1015 PM 8 241 3.32% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 715 PM 5 95 5.26% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 955 PM 3 95 3.16% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 715 PM 18 101 17.82% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 955 PM 1 74 1.35% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 700 PM 32 43 74.42% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 730 PM 31 50 62.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 800 PM 68 134 50.75% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 940 PM 21 43 48.84% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1020 PM 4 50 8.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 700 PM 66 111 59.46% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 800 PM 12 406 2.96% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 945 PM 26 111 23.42% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 700 PM 2 77 2.60% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 830 PM 0 77 0.00% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 70 482 14.52% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 8 190 4.21% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 19 175 10.86% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 156 320 48.75% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 104 628 16.56% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 2 154 1.30% Total Sold 359 1949 18.42% Ticket sales better than I thought for this one, but as you can see it's very location dependent. Doing very well in the Atlanta and Chicago city locations. Suburban interest is limited. I don't have a good comp here, but this same theater city had roughly the same amount of tickets sold for Evil Dead Rise (325 tickets sold) at T-1. I wonder if Asteroid City is an overperform as reviews are good and cast is strong.
  7. Aquaman came out at the true peak of comic book films. This was after Infinity War and four months before Endgame. All comic book films had enhanced awareness as the genre was truly part of the cultural zeitgeist. Aquaman, like other CBMs, had inflated box office numbers due to this. Now, we have the opposite scenario. There's lower interest in the genre as much of the general audience has moved on to other things. No need for complicated answers. It really is thid simple.
  8. T -1 Ticket Sales - The Blackening (June 15, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 715 PM 4 240 1.67% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 945 PM 3 240 1.25% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 645 PM 5 95 5.26% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 800 PM 6 95 6.32% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 920 PM 0 95 0.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 1040 PM 0 95 0.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 600 PM 9 74 12.16% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 730 PM 8 66 12.12% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 1010 PM 2 66 3.03% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 600 PM 4 70 5.71% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 900 PM 11 70 15.71% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1015 PM 2 98 2.04% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1130 PM 0 70 0.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 600 PM 1 406 0.25% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 830 PM 7 406 1.72% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 1010 PM 1 100 1.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 600 PM 7 76 9.21% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 830 PM 0 76 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 1040 PM 0 49 0.00% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 7 480 1.46% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 11 380 2.89% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 19 206 9.22% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 17 308 5.52% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 9 912 0.99% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 7 201 3.48% Total Sold 70 2487 2.81% 70 tickets sold across the six theaters I track for Thursday's preview day. I don't have any AA focused films to compare to, so this is more an experimental one. Two other comedies: About My Father (36 purchased / 2,431 total seats) Book Club 2 (71 purchased / 1,967 total seats) I think this film is going to over index in city locations especially those with a strong AA composition like Atlanta, so I think my numbers are a bit inflated which would potentially put this over $10 Million weekend. I see it coming in under that unfortunately as I thought the trailer was pretty funny for this one.
  9. T -1 Ticket Sales - The Boogeyman (June 1, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 745 PM 6 262 2.29% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 1015 PM 3 262 1.15% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 700 PM 1 182 0.55% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 830 PM 0 194 0.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 945 PM 0 194 0.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 700 PM 25 66 37.88% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 945 PM 5 66 7.58% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 700 PM 9 68 13.24% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 930 PM 0 68 0.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1200 AM 0 68 0.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 700 PM 1 111 0.90% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 940 PM 1 111 0.90% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 700 PM 7 94 7.45% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 940 PM 0 94 0.00% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 9 524 1.72% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 1 570 0.18% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 30 132 22.73% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 9 204 4.41% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 2 222 0.90% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 7 188 3.72% Total Sold 58 1840 3.15% Thursday Sales for The Boogeyman look anemic. Spiderverse and Little Mermaid are taking up both PLF's along with a lot screens in general. These theaters are only having a couple screenings each of this film on Thursday so the total seats available is significantly lower than other horror films I've tracked this year. Comps: Evil Dead Rise (325 / 3,653) = .178x of Evil Dead Rise = $445K Thursday Preview Pope's Exorcist: (96 / 3,292) = .604x of Pope's Exorcist = $513K Thursday Preview Renfield (152 / 3,117) = .382x of Renfield = $343K Thursday Preview Understanding there were some early access screenings for this film, I'd expect it to do a bit better than my projections, sadly though I think this one looks dead on arrival with a much more crowded marketplace than when these other horror films came out earlier this spring. Yes, it could just be doing poorly at my theater sample, but I still find these numbers surprising.
  10. T -1 Ticket Sales - The Machine (May 25, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 730 PM 5 216 2.31% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 900 PM 20 217 9.22% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 1100 PM 3 216 1.39% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 710 PM 2 95 2.11% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 900 PM 4 81 4.94% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 1000 PM 0 95 0.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 600 PM 28 74 37.84% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 800 PM 19 58 32.76% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1000 PM 18 50 36.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 800 PM 29 221 13.12% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 1020 PM 0 111 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 700 PM 4 77 5.19% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 945 PM 3 77 3.90% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 28 649 4.31% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 6 271 2.21% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 47 132 35.61% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 18 50 36.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 29 332 8.73% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 7 154 4.55% Total Sold 135 1588 8.50% Last but not least is The Machine. The adult comedy starring comedian Bert Kreischer. The comedian is doing a live comedy set that is being broadcast as part of a screening at a few of the theaters I track. Ticket sales for that event look decent and will certainly factor into what could be a decent preview number that should exceed $500K. Comps: Renfield 152 tickets ($900K Preview / $8 MIl OW) Sisu 114 tickets ($585K Preview / $3.3 Mill OW) I'm thinking this does around $700K in previews, but one has to wonder what legs this will have. If the film is good and has good WOM could be a nice little surprise. I have my doubts, but we saw Cocaine Bear well exceed expectations earlier this year, so there's certainly an appetite and an audience for this type of comedy. Curious to see how No Hard Feelings and Strays do later this summer as R comedies. Would be nice if this genre starts to see success again in the theaters where distributors see an opportunity.
  11. T -1 Ticket Sales - Kandahar (May 25, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 515 PM 1 240 0.42% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 800 PM 4 240 1.67% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 1045 PM 2 240 0.83% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 500 PM 1 100 1.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 800 PM 1 100 1.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 500 PM 3 58 5.17% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 930 PM 3 74 4.05% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 500 PM 0 47 0.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 645 PM 3 40 7.50% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 1100 PM 0 47 0.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 500 PM 0 155 0.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 750 PM 3 155 1.94% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 500 PM 6 76 7.89% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 750 PM 0 76 0.00% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 7 720 0.97% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 2 200 1.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 6 132 4.55% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 3 134 2.24% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 3 310 0.97% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 6 152 3.95% Total Sold 27 1648 1.64% For comparison, The Covenant had 60 tickets sold ($400K Preview / $6.4 Mill OW) and Sisu had 114 tickets sold ($585K Preview / $3.3 Mill OW). Those two films had Dolby screens at AMC to help push those numbers which Kandahar does not. I saw Kandahar a few weeks ago. The film is ok for what it is, but there's nothing there that stands out that suggests it will have a WOM factor, so not expecting any weekend buzz. Yes, it comes out Memorial Day Weekend which could see some factor into it on Monday, but I'm more fixated on the three day weekend which, unfortunately, looks dead on arrival. Previews are going to be low here. At best $250K in Previews with maybe a 3 day of $2.5 Million.
  12. T -1 Ticket Sales - About My Father (May 25, 2023) Theater Name Showtime Tickets Sold Total Seats % Sold GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 300 PM 3 237 1.27% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 700 PM 13 270 4.81% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 1100 PM 0 226 0.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 345 PM 1 109 0.92% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 625 PM 0 109 0.00% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 900 PM 3 109 2.75% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 300 PM 0 60 0.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 535 PM 0 60 0.00% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 810 PM 4 60 6.67% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 1040 PM 0 60 0.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 300 PM 0 50 0.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 515 PM 2 50 4.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 730 PM 1 50 2.00% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 945 PM 0 40 0.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 300 PM 0 217 0.00% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 530 PM 1 231 0.43% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 715 PM 8 154 5.19% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 1030 PM 0 111 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 300 PM 0 57 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 520 PM 0 57 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 740 PM 0 57 0.00% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 1000 PM 0 57 0.00% GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ 16 733 2.18% Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL 4 327 1.22% Marina 12 Long Beach, CA 4 240 1.67% Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA 3 190 1.58% River East 21 - Chicago, IL 9 713 1.26% Katy Mills - Katy, TX 0 228 0.00% Total Sold 36 2431 1.48% Just not much going on here. Same amount of tickets sold as Are You There God (36) and less than Love Again (46). It's also significantly less than Book Club 2 (72) Are You There God and Book Club 2 opened between $6.5-$7 Million. This one looks more dire as Are You There God skewed older (weekend crowd) and Book Club (Mother's Day legs). Love Again only opened to $2.5 Million. I think this film will do better than that as a comedy especially in the northeast with its large Italian American population. $4-$5 Million Opening Weekend sounds right.
  13. Lot of movies in the market for advance sales. Give it some time. Advanced screening at my theater in Miami filled up 30 minutes before showtime. Even Top Gun Maverick didn't do that.
  14. The Blackening is an AA focused film coming out Juneteenth Weekend. It's scheduling on that key weekend is why you are seeing that projection. As for The Boogeyman, horror continues to over deliver. There's been some separation from all of those horror films that came out in late March and April to when Boogeyman premieres, so there should be some pent up interest again from horror film fans to return to theaters.
  15. I know it's fun to talk about tracking for films coming out next month, but any insights into the films coming out this week?
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