That Jungle Cruise Comp for Fall Guy would be the best comp I would think and hope. Emily Blunt and a Alist male costar. A PG-!3 action adventure movie with romance elements. Also Bullet Train. The others not so much..
The biggest problem with the Fall Guy is that 125 m budget.If they had made it for the 80-90 m that Lost City and Bullet Train were made for than 30 m OW with the legs those 2 movies had would be fine. But they wanted to do a big movie with lot's of large scale practical action. Personally I love that but it may bite them in the ass. Once again though it's still 2 weeks away and it's not like it is a bad movie they are trying to sell. They have the goods it seems now they have to figure out how to sell it in the final stretch.
Yeah below the Openings of The Lost City and Bullet train with stronger reviews and the First weekend of May opening would be a disaster. The Universal marketing department will have some explaining to do.
This all the way. I am still looking forward to The Fall Guy and really hope it is a late bloomer and has monster Anyone But You legs but right now the vibe is a real depressing
Won't lie this Fall Guy conversation is a real bummer. Something has not clicked with audiences yet. It really does show the GA does not give two shits about SWSW or even know it's a thing. They may have been better off just waiting to closer to release to screen and drop the embargo. Having said all that I still feel like this is a movie that could have a late presale bump and strong walkups. Also unless there is disconnect between audiences and critics the WOM should be good to great so legs will be good and with no 800LB gorilla in May a IM of at least 3.0 should happen. Of course only opening to 30 m or so only gets it to 90. or so then.
I can understand the SWSW early review drop to start building buzz but at the same time it may be hurting it because now they don't have it as a option for late in the game to goose sales. Still think though this will be a late bloomer since it is not the type of movie people feel the need to get tickets for early or for previews. Most of the audience can wait for the weekend once they hear strong WOM and stuff. Fingers crossed.
Just a reminder that The Fall Guy is still two and a half weeks away and it is not the type of movie that people feel that they have to buy tickets for early. Yes it's looking like 40+ for OW is less and less likely but WOM should be good. And with no 800 LB gorilla movie in May it's going to have room to stretch it's legs. Apes in it's second weekend is a different enough movie they should coexist. But this is BO theory so yes let's determine it's ultimate fate now.