Squire

This is gonna take a while longer. Any hope of both strikes being resolved before the end of October is fading.

As a lawyer that writes contracts, crafting the language still takes of time. It could take a week or more to get it ironed out.

I could see Dune moving again, but not until it’s more firmly set in stone what moves other studios will make. I have to think further 2024 changes are coming, but studios are just waiting for the strikes to settle first.

Not gonna get into the “did Endgame help the CM or not” debate. Perhaps the only way to show that is a big downturn for The Marvels. IMO, I think some level of superhero fatigue, post-COVID attendance, reduced China numbers for MCU films, and the general economic conditions will result in Marvels making at least 25% less than CM, but I wouldn’t expect an Alice in Wonderland 2 disaster. After all, even Ant-Man 3 made about $500M WW.

Was posted by someone else earlier, but it’s this one: https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2023/09/nia-dacosta-on-navigating-the-blockbuster-machine Key section: “DaCosta is also still grappling with the breakthroughs she’s made, including the fact that The Marvels is the highest-budgeted film ever helmed by a Black woman. (DuVernay’s A Wrinkle in Time previously held that title with $100 million.)”

Vanity Fair already updated its article to remove the $130M number, which they likely got from the Forbes article that said just the 2 initial months of production cost $130M. Likely the budget will be similar to recent MCU films ($200-250M).

$130M for 2 months of filming makes a lot more sense than the whole movie costing that amount. Considering the last few MCU movies have all been in the $200 to $250M range, it makes more sense that Marvels budget is similar.

Because the first movie cost $152-175M 5 years ago. The extent of the re-shoots may also have been more than expected.

I have a real hard time believing that, especially given the re-shoots. Vanity is a more reliable source, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the number go up.

For those who believe she was in the wrong, they should be celebrating her decision to not resume the show instead of raking her over the coals for only doing it because she “bowed to pressure.” I also think there is a lot of double standards. Nobody gave SAG actors a hard time for continuing to work while the WGA was on strike.

Agreed 100%. CM was forgettable and I’m not interested in Marvels, but I can’t see how this movie grosses less than $500M WW.

China, South Korea, and the US account for approximately $200M of the difference between MI7 and Fallout. China alone counts for $132M of the drop. We shouldn’t expect improvement in China for MI8, but it’s reasonable to think US and SK can, but we shouldn’t expect Fallout numbers.

Dead Reckoning Moves Into Black with Insurance Payout Some small comfort with this!

Gonna be close whether it surpasses TLM.

I think a lot of 2024 release dates are gonna change in the next few months, especially if the strikes persist deep into the Fall. In Dune’s case, March has already begun to become less crowded and I think we’ll see that continue. For example, good chance Snow White and Mickey 17 move to sometime later in 2024. Ghostbusters may move, too.

Reading between the lines, it really seems early rumors that Netflix and maybe the other streaming-only studios are the real roadblock. I could also see Disney being a legacy holdout given Iger’s public comments.

At this point, Oppenheimer is a favorite to win probably any category in which it is nominated, but I don’t expect a sweep. Given the BO success of the film and the likely narrative that it is “Nolan’s time”, it’s hard to imagine how Oppenheimer doesn’t win director and picture. Actor, too, plus most of the technical awards. However, KotFM’s subject matter will likely have a lot of appeal to voters, so I can envision supporting actor/actress, cinematography, and screenplay awards as real possibilities.

I think people have forgotten the rave reviews this movie got out of Cannes. Because of that, I think people expecting Oppenheimer to clean up during awards season are making a mistake. I think it’s the best chance for Nolan to win BD and BP, but you can never discount Marty!

Is that what they would use for someone who “polished” the script? I could also see them giving him a writing credit to bolster the scripts chances at an Oscar nomination.

Last of Us Showrunner Craig Mazin Worked on Both Dune Scripts “When he’s not on ‘The Last of Us,’ Mazin has been working intermittently on both ‘Dune’ movies and circling a new ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ installment, but only if he can work with Ted Elliot, who co-wrote the first of the franchise and two subsequent films.” Heard about this a while back. He apparently did more work on the Part 2 script than Part 1. Some sources are even saying he’s getting a writing credit on Part 2. This interview doesn’t explicitly say that, however.

Considering streaming companies don’t release streaming data, you wouldn’t have evidence whether it did or did not explode on streaming.

I seriously doubt the movie is a “wreck” by those standards. Could be subpar ala Ant-Man 3 or Thor L&T. Who knows? If it is subpar, I think keeping its current release date is the best idea as it will be the most notable blockbuster in over 2 months and will have little competition initially.

Agreed. And “creatives” haven’t run Hollywood for decades. The era where the owners of studios would also make movies ended in the 50’s/60’s.

Based on the Cannes reviews, this movie a legit threat to Oppenheimer at the Oscars for the big awards. At the BO, I don’t see this making much. International appeal will be low, even with Leo starring. I’m thinking $150M WW max.

The outrage at Marvel/superhero movie critiques is selective. Denis Villeneuve made some minor criticism in 2021 and he turned into Enemy #1. James Cameron did the same last year and most people were like “Okay.”