My original post wasn’t saying it would do $50M Fri, it was saying that the TS movie did $50M in total sales in its first 24 hrs.
But to elaborate on my weekend split, here’s how we get to the numbers I threw out. I took a quick glance my local market to see showtimes, and I count 70 showtimes off 10 theaters for Friday including smaller and larger theaters. So, let’s average that off and say the average theater can fit 7 showtimes for TS for Friday.
Now for ATP, I do think you’re underestimating the ATP since
A - you neglected to factor in the PLF ticket price bump where tickets are going for like $22-23 and
B - There is not gonna be a full 25% under 12 for this movie. Endgame had 18% families, including parents. Now I recognize that prob skewed a bit older but still, 25% is huge. I’d personally wager around like 15% under 12.
Using my local market as a comp again, those 70 showtimes were 78.57% standard and 21.43% PLF. If we assume all parents are taking their kids to regular standard, then you’re looking at a split of 15% child price, 63% standard price, and 21% PLF price assuming Friday is filled to capacity (which at some theaters in this 10 theater sample I’m using has already happened after two days). So using a flat $22 price for all PLF shows, that math gets me an ATP of $19.12. So if we run with an average auditorium size of 150 seats, theeeeen
150 seats * 7 showings = 1,050 admissions per theater
1,050 admissions * $19.12 ATP = $20,076 per theater average
$20,076 * 4000 locations results in a Friday gross of $80,304,000 if all showings are filled to capacity. So from there, I don’t think $70M is that hard.
Ill do my shpeel for SAT and SUN later, this took longer than I expected lol