Relevation

Shrek 5 gonna go for biggest movie OAT domestically, for sure that Although I would look out for Zootopia 2 or Moana 2 to clear IO2 overseas, but not WW

I mean c’mon here. Beetlejuice is easily taking the September OW record and absolutely has the potential to go much higher.

Also for the record I did track the August 23 releases for THU, but the numbers are so dogshit that I don’t even think it’s worth a full post lol Blink Twice - 27 tickets sold (comps to $830K against Challengers) The Crow - 18 tickets sold (comps to $731K against Borderlands) The Forge - 13 tickets sold (comps to $180K against Cabrini) Yawn. Call me back when a movie is doing $1M+ previews.

Is it? Flip, TheFlatLannister, and Jat’s numbers all suggest like $14M+ THU alone and if it puts down $2.5M EA, then that’s like $16.5M combined previews! In September! Shang-Chi had an 8.6x IM so if this does the same, then that’s $142M for the weekend. And I don’t see any reason why this would be frontheavy since it’s a nostalgia based family horror comedy, and pace has been phenomenal the last few weeks. Very strongly getting IO2/Barbie vibes here, this is a freight train that is only gonna keep getting higher and higher until it like doubles industry projections when it finally hits.

Tbh I might predict $140-150M for Beetlejuice at this point, pretty incredible sales that shouldn’t be frontloaded

$14.5M combined previews would be more than Inside Out 2… Gotta be honest this sounds less like a $100M opener and more like a September record $130M+ opener, even a Shang-Chi IM gets it to $124.3M and that’s MCU

How does it only add another $15M globally if it just had a weekend of $17M globally, like what lmao Adding another $50-60M globally from here seems not only doable but easy given the kinds of holds it’s been posting both domestically and overseas, and a 71% drop next weekend domestically with no major new releases is ludicrous to even consider, and so is that overseas drop $1.67B at the very least is locked and there is no shot it drops even close to as badly as you’re predicting next weekend, this post just reads like doomerism

Damn so LB just has the perfect ranking, no notes

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 08/15/24 Coraline (re-release) - 232 tickets sold Alien: Romulus - 163 tickets sold COMPS & ANALYSIS Coraline (re-release) 1.55x of GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW ($1.75M) 1.69x of The Chosen Season 4 eps 1-3 ($2.42M) 1.87x of Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace re-release ($4.55M) 3.18x of Spy x Family Code: White ($2.13M) AVERAGE: $2.71M Like I knew Coraline was popular, but daaaaaaaaaaaamn. 6th best THU seller at my theater ever? More than It Ends With Us and Godzilla x Kong? Obviously it over indexed and hence my comps aren't $10M THU level or anything, but absolutely incredible showing here in my market, and if it's replicated at all anywhere else, then a massive debut by re-release standards is in the cards here. Blind guess based largely on my comps, but $2.5-3M THU and an $8-12M OW? Alien: Romulus 0.45x of Dune: Part Two ($4.14M) 0.87x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($8.71M) 1.29x of Civil War ($3.75M) 1.36x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($4.75M) 1.66x of A Quiet Place: Day One ($11.31M) 2.26x of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($11.32M) AVERAGE: $7.33M Coraline doing as stupidly well as it did kinda made Alien's sales total look a bit less impressive by comparison, but it still did really really strongly here. All of my comps here kinda either came in too low because of terrible walkups and over indexing (Dune, Furiosa, Civil War) or came in too high because of incredible walkups and under indexing (GxK, Apes, AQP), yet the overall average seems to make sense. However, I've noticed when this type of comp herding happens for blockbusters at my market, they usually follow one track more heavily than the other and tend not to follow the overall average as closely. And given Alien's strong reviews, horror elements, and the general walkup heavy nature of blockbusters this summer, I'm fairly confident which track I'd take here. Call me bullish, but I'm gonna say $8-9M THU and a $62-69M OW. Btw thanks for the feedback on formatting, I do like this split analysis form better!

Brooooooo these Coraline sales at my theaters

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 08/08/24 It Ends With Us - 269 tickets sold Borderlands - 32 tickets sold Cuckoo - 17 tickets sold COMPS & ANALYSIS It Ends With Us 1.78x of Mean Girls ($5.79M) 2.14x of Civil War ($6.19M) 3.17x of Trap ($6.96M) 5.17x of Challengers ($8.28M) AVERAGE: $6.81M First of all, FANTASTIC showing by It Ends With Us. Consistently selling out its showings and posting the 4th best THU sales run I've ever tracked, only behind Longlegs, IO2, and Deadpool. I do get the vibe it may have over indexed, given my near $7M THU average is considerably higher than most comps, but phenomenal sales run regardless and it's gonna surprise a lot of people this weekend. $5.5-6M THU and a $54-58M OW. Borderlands 0.26x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($1.54M) 0.26x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($1.23M) 0.27x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($933K) 0.40x of The Fall Guy ($940K) 0.62x of Argylle ($1.05M) 1.08x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($918K) AVERAGE: $1.10M Borderlands on the other hand... sheyiks. 27% of Furiosa and not even 2/3rds of Argylle is straight pathetic in the middle of summer, no other way to put it. Disaster run, probably not going for double digits unless it pulls a Bad Boys and skyrockets at T-0 powered by the T-Mobile deal. Anyways uh, predicting $1.0-1.2M THU and an $8-10M OW. Cuckoo 0.08x of Longlegs ($237K) 0.15x of Maxxxine ($476K) 1.31x of Immaculate ($719K) AVERAGE: $477K Honestly expected a tad better for Cuckoo given how absurdly huge the run for Longlegs was at my theaters, but that was always gonna be an impossible standard to match. Otherwise it performed like a normal underperforming horror at my theaters, but the NEON factor and given how other indie horrors have way overperformed here, gonna temper my expectations a notch. However, I do lean more towards the higher Immaculate comp just for size proximity. $600-700K THU and a $4-5M OW. Btw, trying out putting the analysis with the individual movies to avoid a massive confusing block of text at the bottom. Thoughts?

I think he’s assuming that If IO2 beats Jurassic World and finals at #8, then Avatar 3 will obviously knock it down to #9, then Doomsday knocks it down to #10, and then Secret Wars knocks it down to #11 (of course unless Shrek 5 comes in like the 10 megaton nuclear bomb that it’s gonna be and kicks IO2 out sooner)

So if it has trash walkups then it’ll still open to a great $75-80M+ depending on EA And if it has huge explosive walkups then ohhhhhh mai gawd (14 THU + 4 EA x Equalizer 3 IM = 161.3!!!)

B That month less of summer weekdays is gonna knock DP&W hard here, it simply won’t have the late strength that IO2 and JW had beyond its 6th/7th weekend. Something like $640-645M seems right, compared to $653M for Jurassic World and $665M for Inside Out 2 seems right imo Maybe DP&W can stretch to $655M tho idk

People aren’t looking hard enough for what will truly be the big boy of summer 2025

Untitled Ryan Coogler Movie, F1, and Ella McCay

All too low except for Borderlands imo (although I did strongly question Shawn’s ranges on Twisters and DP&W only to be proven super wrong) But with these 3 I’m more optimistic given very strong initial sales for the August two and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice tracking very nicely with other big nostalgia sequel breakouts and having the potential for a monster marketing campaign Beetlejuice Beetlejuice - $81-126M OW It Ends With Us - $47-55M OW Alien: Romulus - $54-71M OW

Bro holy shiiiiiiit I thought It Ends With Us was already gonna be a super strong AUG breakout but Alien could be eyeing like $65M+ this weekend if it could hit those kinds of numbers, and it’s performing similarly in Florida too Top 5 opener for August ever?

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 08/01/24 Trap - 85 tickets sold Harold and the Purple Crayon - 13 tickets sold COMPS Trap 0.40x of Longlegs ($1.19M) 0.75x of Maxxxine ($2.38M) 0.87x of A Quiet Place: Day One ($5.90M) 1.63x of Argylle ($2.78M) 1.63x of Challengers ($2.62M) 1.81x of Monkey Man ($2.53M) 4.05x of Abigail ($4.05M) 5.67x of The Watchers ($5.67M) AVERAGE: $3.39M Harold and the Purple Crayon 0.02x of Despicable Me 4 ($493K) 0.04x of Inside Out 2 ($560K) 0.20x of The Garfield Movie ($391K) 0.39x of IF ($689K) AVERAGE: $533K Threw a whole host of comps at the wall for Trap since I'm not sure if it plays more like an original genre studio film (Argylle, Challengers, Monkey Man), an over-indexing summer horror (Longlegs, Maxxxine), or a walkup heavy under indexing horror (A Quiet Place: Day One, Abigail, The Watchers). Overall comp average with a mix of all 3 trends is a very solid $3.4M, as is the sale count. I think this could be decently walkup heavy and I like round numbers, so let's say $3.0-3.5M THU and a $23-28M OW. Harold on the other hand... . Best to let the numbers speak for themselves, although I did notice 4 likely blocked seats all in the bottom right at my Emagine for this (Which is more seats than this actually legit sold at the theater lmao, 4 v 3). $500Kish THU and around a $5.0-6.5M OW.

Pulling up AQPD1 at T-15 out of curiosity since it’s another monster horror movie A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1 Previews - 21441/515882 437292.61 2519 shows Friday - 13516/960873 263538.18 4702 shows Alien at T-15 is at 1.087x of Day One, which would yield a fantastic $7.39M preview comp average. I think we could be in for two $50M+ AUG openers at this rate, and Alien could maybe even try for $55M+

?

Yeah Trap definitely ain’t going that high lol It Ends With Us and Alien: Romulus on the other hand tho…

Comping to A Quiet Place T-2, since I think Trap could be equally as walkup heavy given it’s a fairly accessible PG-13 original thriller A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1 Previews(T-2) - 53019/585612 1035076.71 3038 shows +8798 Friday - 45546/1171815 851430.28 6348 shows +10537 Trap is at 0.39x of AQP, which would yield a comp of $2.67M previews That sounds decent enough, and if it could stretch to $3M, maybe a $25M OW is possible on the high end

Tbf everyone just got off a super big and tedious Deadpool track, trackers are only human

Oh and for the shows A+ X-Men ‘97 A Loki (season 2) WandaVision B What If…? (seasons 1 and 2) The Falcon and the Winter Soldier Ms. Marvel Hawkeye C Moon Knight Loki (season 1) D She-Hulk: Attorney at Law F Secret Invasion (quit after one episode) DID NOT WATCH Echo I Am Groot