Bobzaruni
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Posts posted by Bobzaruni
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13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
it's real. There's a lot of real ones on there. And many lists, as well
https://letterboxd.com/mardarrius/list/the-year-of-2023/
https://letterboxd.com/jamiecinematics/list/2023-first-time-watches-ranked/
https://letterboxd.com/laurengarafano/list/2023-ranked/
https://letterboxd.com/thebatdude/list/every-2023-film-release-seen/ (also has seen Oppenheimer, apparently)
https://letterboxd.com/spotts/list/2023/
https://letterboxd.com/cinematicreel/list/2023-releases-ranked/
Oh shit you're right, I found another as well
https://letterboxd.com/jerryyanis/list/2023-films-ranked-1/ -
9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
Some critics won't like it due to the camp and satire (some will find it unsubtle, etc), but I don't anticipate truly mixed reception based on experience and what we all know. ruimy will of course focus on them due to his agenda but I don't imagine that will be the consensus. The marketing does tease the movie very well and that's what people want.. ask and you shall receive. Audience scores from Letterboxd (not the trolls who haven't seen) look to be strong.
I can see a 4.2~ on Letterboxd, at least initially, if the movie is going to be what I think it is (a deconstruction of Barbie as a concept)
RT will be around the mid 80s if it is unsubtle though -
https://letterboxd.com/mardarrius/film/barbie/
this is the only indication to a review which might exist, if its even real -
3 hours ago, druv10 said:
Days
Daily Admissions
Weekly %
Total Admissions
Wednesday (OD)
48,002
52,039
Thursday
(Lowest Day)
41,921
93,960
Friday
64,999
158,959
Saturday
177,851
336,810
Sunday
179,225
516,035
Monday
52,398
568,433
Tuesday
55,730
624,163
Wednesday
60,867
+27%
685,030
Thursday
58,135
+39%
743,165
Friday
81,941
+26%
825,106
Saturday
205,899
+16%
1,031,005
Sunday
210,688
+18%
1,241,693
Monday
65,141
+24%
1,306,834
Tuesday
68,444
+23%
1,375,278
Wednesday
(Culture Day)
110,284
+81%
1,485,562
Thursday
73,648
+27%
1,559,210
Friday
133,215
+63%
1,692,574
Saturday
289,894
+41%
1,982,468
Sunday 300k?
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How will 3rd July (monday) be affected being in between Sunday and the 4th? Also, are the Tuesday deals running for 4th July?
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1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:
can Indy get 65m OW?
If it does ATSV-level drops, it'll be at 55M
It would have to basically be flat on one day to get to 65M -
Bad holdovers (barring ATSV and Elemental which weren't all that crazy either) + bad openings... people saving for Barbenheimer?🤔
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4 minutes ago, MattW said:
Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?
those 5 (maybe barring Indy 5), seem to have a generally similar viewer profile domestically — people who don't have to be convinced to go to the movies — but they don't attract a more general and wider audience [I do think MI7 will be higher however].
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12 minutes ago, M37 said:
No need to apologize! I wrote a general post about IM's in summer earlier this week actually. But the relevant part to your question:
Barbie should absolutely do that (and will probably some families too) but between the EA shows and the extraordinary hype overall - its become an Event Movie - would be reluctant to project higher than 8x at present, probably more in 6.5-7.5x range myself
However, haven't seen much sales data beyond Thursday, but that will likely tell the story on the IM as we get closer to release
Perfect, thanks!
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6 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:
Based on comps overall, I think it'll be around 85M-105M with 12M-13.5M~ Previews and a 7-8x IM.
However, it could be higher if it ramps up in non-EA, I think the ATSV comp of 15M~ Previews based on the Sacto market with an 8x IM for a 120M OW is a decent ceiling for now since it accounts for a massive review bump/ticket rush a few days out.@M37 Sorry to disturb you, but for the Barbie's IM, is there a decent chance it could go over 8x Previews (incl. EA), or is 7x-8x the correct general range for it?
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Based on comps overall, I think it'll be around 85M-105M with 12M-13.5M~ Previews and a 7-8x IM.
However, it could be higher if it ramps up in non-EA, I think the ATSV comp of 15M~ Previews based on the Sacto market with an 8x IM for a 120M OW is a decent ceiling for now since it accounts for a massive review bump/ticket rush a few days out. -
26 minutes ago, harry713 said:
I hope so, since I liked the movie but I'm just being cautiously optimistic
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1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:
Idk how useful this is since it's obvious Elemental is going to have good legs, it's just we can't tell whether it's gonna be 4x, 5x, 6x or more. However pencilling in a ~$2.5M Thursday gives a $30.5M second week and a -35% drop which is the lowest out of all 36 digital animated movies released in June/July that opened to $10M+ (it's actually 38 but I removed a couple that had weird first weeks that didn't include the OW like Ice Age 3). This, along with the total lack of competition until TMNT makes me think we're in for a pretty leggy run that should have a higher multiplier than every movie on this list.
Release Date Film 2nd week drop Multiplier Jun 16, 2023 Elemental -35% ??? Jun 19, 2015 Inside Out -37% 3.94 Jun 8, 2012 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted -38% 3.59 Jul 9, 2010 Despicable Me -40% 4.06 Jun 6, 2008 Kung Fu Panda -40% 3.58 Jun 8, 2007 Surf’s Up -40% 3.34 Jul 18, 2014 Planes: Fire and Rescue -41% 3.38 Jun 9, 2006 Cars -42% 3.58 Jun 22, 2012 Brave -42% 3.58 Jul 13, 2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation -42% 3.8 Jun 7, 2019 The Secret Life of Pets 2 -42% 3.41 Jun 21, 2013 Monsters University -43% 3.26 Jun 2, 2017 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie -43% 3.1 Jul 21, 2006 Monster House -43% 3.32 Jun 13, 2014 How to Train Your Dragon 2 -44% 3.58 Jul 22, 2016 Ice Age: Collision Course -44% 3 Jun 17, 2016 Finding Dory -45% 3.6 Jun 29, 2007 Ratatouille -45% 4.39 Jun 18, 2010 Toy Story 3 -46% 3.76 Jul 28, 2017 The Emoji Movie -46% 3.51 Jul 2, 2021 The Boss Baby: Family Business -47% 3.58 Jun 21, 2019 Toy Story 4 -48% 3.59 Jul 8, 2016 The Secret Life of Pets -48% 3.53 Jun 27, 2008 WALL-E -48% 3.55 Jul 29, 2022 DC League of Super Pets -49% 4.07 Jun 16, 2017 Cars 3 -51% 2.85 Jul 27, 2018 Teen Titans Go! To The Movies -51% 2.86 Jul 13, 2012 Ice Age: Continental Drift -52% 3.46 Jun 30, 2017 Despicable Me 3 -53% 3.65 Jun 24, 2011 Cars 2 -53% 2.89 Jun 15, 2018 Incredibles 2 -54% 3.33 Jul 1, 2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru -56% 3.45 Jul 10, 2015 Minions -56% 2.9 Jun 17, 2022 Lightyear -61% 2.34 Jul 27, 2007 The Simpsons Movie -63% 2.47 Jul 11, 2001 Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within -63% 2.82 honestly, if it does that, I can 4x to 5x
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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:
RT prediction OVER 90%
I was going to say 95% based on early reactions, they read along the lines of Spider-Verse's which got 96%.
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On 6/27/2023 at 2:56 PM, Issac Newton said:
Nigeria
Spider-Verse holds at No. 3 in its 4th weekend, dropping just 17% to gross ₦7.8M.
The animated comic book sequel has now earned a lifetime total to date of ₦100.6M, making it the 6th 2023 release
to surpass the ₦100M mark at the box office.
Is it the highest grossing animation ever in Nigeria?
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I have a question, will there even be room for any holdovers at all given MI7, Barbie, and Oppenheimer not only being there at the same but also that, barring children, counter-programming is kind of baked into this?
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48 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:
O/U $60M for Indiana Jones this weekend?
O/U $13M for ATSV and Elemental?
O/U $5.5M for The Flash?
O
O/O
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33 minutes ago, Bob Train said:
Elemental will be #2 this weekend cuz double features
Indy and Elemental double features?
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33 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:
Curious as to whether Elemental or ASTV will be #2 next weekend.
They'll both be 30 or Sub-30 but I wager that Elemental will win
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5 minutes ago, Grebacio said:
Spiderverse presales started 23 days before its release.
Ah okay, my bad
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4 hours ago, Porthos said:
Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting
Capped
Sellouts
Showings
Seats left
Total Seats
Seats Sold
Perct Sold
TOTALS
0
0
96
11684
12627
943
7.47%
Total Seats Sold Today
70
T-25 Comps:
%
Sold
T-25Total
Sold
Sellouts
Shows
Seats Left
Total Seats
Perct
Sold
Final
Sold
% of
Final
Comp
JWD
55.80
60
1690
0/171
22094/23784
7.11%
10966
8.60%
10.04m
Scream 6
283.18
29
333
0/65
7216/7549
4.41%
3134
30.09%
16.14m
FX
126.41
23
746
0/182
26954/27700
2.69%
4122
22.88%
9.48m
TLM
129.00
60
731
0/154
21263/21994
3.32%
6561
14.37%
13.29m
FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.
EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.
Regal: 225/4246 [5.30% sold]
Matinee: 33/1757 [1.88% | 3.50% of all tickets sold]
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Wed: 279/423 [65.96% sold] [+5 tickets sold]
Thr: 664/12204 [5.44% sold] [+65 tickets sold]Hey, do you by any chance have a Spiderverse comp for Barbie or did it not start this early?
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1 hour ago, pepsa said:
A great 3.1% drop for Elemental, I had hoped for an increase though.
#
Título
Thu-Sun
Accumulated
1
Elementos
189.581
647.502
2
Flash
87.065
399.676
3
Transformers: el despertar de las Bestias
70.602
584.736
4
Spider Man: A traves del Spider Verso
53.484
712.941
5
La Sirenita
41.328
1.222.159
6
Rapidos y furiosos X
29.767
2.241.058
7
Boogeyman: tu miedo es real
10.644
102.736
8
Blondi
6.532
42.389
9
Super Mario Bros. La pelicula
3.995
2.828.495
10
Guardianes de la Galaxia Volumen 3
3.209
1.388.967
Jesus christ, Elemental is doing very well
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25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
I'm weary of "SH fatigue" phrase cause that's been thrown around ever since and never happened. Yet something is up. I mean, when SH-crazy markets are now only supporting very special SH movie(s) like NWH and showing average or low interest in the rest one has to wonder if it's covid impact on viewing habits (people are more selective, more home theater-bound) or change in trend where one genre is out and something else is in.
People want 'event' films, ATSV wasn't that (and to a large degree GOTG3 wasn't either). They were surprisingly great movies carried by word of mouth. I'd wager BTSV could behave like an 'event' film under the right circumstances but we'll have to see.
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On 6/19/2023 at 1:44 AM, Bobzaruni said:
If it does 30M+ next week [weekdays + weekend] (240M~ by next Sunday), it'll be in the right area for it assuming it holds well after. It also opens in SK this weekend so it should get at the very least a small boost of around $3m maybe? I'm not sure, could be way off either way.
The only big competition this summer for both its primary demos — animation (Elemental) and Superhero (Flash)— came this week and it held somewhat okay against them. There's nothing significant at all in those groups for a long while now and what seems like a clear road so long as things go as they should, it should be in the cards. I don't think Indy, MI7, Barbie, or Oppenheimer have as much direct cross-over with ATSV so it shouldn't be affected as much by them other than losing screens.
Beat my primary checkpoint by 3.2M even though it just missed my SK target by less than $0.1M (which probably speaks to the strength in some other markets). 300M isn't probable at this point but it's still possible if everything goes right and it doesn't lose significant screens to Indy.
-20.3% from last weekend (incl. SK) (27.6M-> 22M)
-27.5%~ from last weekend (excl. SK) (27.6M -> 20M~)
-21.9% from last full week (incl. SK) (43.8M -> 34.2M) [Running total: 209M -> 243.2M]
-28.5%~ from last full week (excl. SK) (43.8M -> 31.3M~)
Barbie | July 21, 2023 | Warner Bros | Margot Robbie is Barbie. Ryan Gosling is Ken. | Second most profitable movie of 2023
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Probably an A