Curiouser and Curiouser

you can’t get away from the advertising for this movie. Tons of promotion. It is tough subject matter and that could be an issue.

Do older audiences tend to do the whole presale thing? This feels like it will skew older. Oppenheimer is a good comp but not mission impossible. Off the top of my head can’t really think of anything similar.

I’m wondering why the China release was supposedly scrapped.

Exactly. I don’t get the insistence its budget matters. The budget could be as high as 250 million can we not pretend Apple thinks it is going to recoup theatrically?

They know it’s not going to recoup theatrically that’s not the point.

I’m still amazed it’s actually coming out there has been almost no buzz or press for it.

Sign for previews? Cause the comp average is still pretty good (I think if it can do 3 million on Thursday that’s pretty good). I don’t know much about this side of the business though. I am a little surprised you aren’t seeing more steam because I do see a ton of awareness, there is so much publicity now and its response has been rapturous. But maybe closer to the date people might finalize plans. Its a commitment.

Got it. Thanks! As a fan of Scorsese and the actors in this and someone who really is looking forward to this film having read the book, id be thrilled with that range so fingers crossed.

What do you think that means? A lot of these numbers are given with little commentary, but for the novices here what does this seem to portend for previews and that first weekend? This is a really long movie for adults and I’m not convinced it’s going to do most of its business on Thursday. The comps seem pretty steady?

What does this mean? How does killers have only a 4 percent chance of 20 million? The tracking has been upward of that?

Nah this is just a prestige play by Apple for posterity. But I still very much want it to do well.

I don’t think so. 25-35 is impressive for a movie like this, which isn’t a franchise and is R rated and long. I would love for it to get closer to 40 but that seems unlikely.

It seems that around 3-4 for Thursday previews no? What would this translate to for a domestic opening? Sometimes it seems like it’s going to do really well but comments like this confuse me.

What would you guess for the ow?

350 million would be an absolute dream for this film. I’d be very impressed.

Encanto is insanely popular and a great piece of IP for Disney. Toys, costumes, books, sequels. Sky is the limit.

This seems extremely obtuse of you. You know there is a difference between Netflix and universal.

I think paramount is guaranteed to have apple cover any losses. It’s kinda a can’t miss deal for them. I think some people are upset Marty gets everything he wants without the pressure to deliver revenant sized numbers. Something about that seems to be very upsetting to some people lol.

What does that have to do with anything? It’s a streaming service. It’s not a typical studio. It’s rivals are Amazon and Netflix…

I don’t think the budget was ever published as a studio movie. Its incarnation as a studio film was very different than what it now is. Both pov and I’m sure length. Apples to oranges. Leo was playing Tom white.

I think it’ll make about what most Marty Leo movies make and that’s great! I don’t think theatrical profit is the point here. My interest is I think the story/book is incredible (but so haunting) and the cast and director is amazing. So I am rooting for it. But people crowing about how it’s a flop won’t even consider it’s not a theatrical movie even though it’s getting released in theaters. No actual studio was giving this movie a 200 million dollar budget bc the math isn’t there. Apple did anyway. And I’m glad they did cause it looks awesome.

But it’s an apple movie not a studio movie? Like apple is paying for the entire thing. Paramount is just handling marketing and will get reimbursed by apple no matter what. It’s nothing like blue beetle which was expected to make 2.5 times or 2 times or whatever its budget. It’s not the same.

Things need to be evaluated individually. This movie is a streaming movie and the money they make theatrically is a bonus not the point. Why are people so quick to call this a flop of it doesn’t make half a billion. It’s not going to and that’s not its expectation. Shouldn’t “flops” be considered things that actually underperform in the eyes of the people funding them?

Wonderful, thank you for responding! So By down the middle you mean more than 24 but obviously less than Oppenheimer? also, I’m glad people in the area are excited to see the movie. That’s very cool.

Are these from the region this story is set? Admittedly, I'm most intrigued by this film and the projections do seem kind of all over the place. Wondering what to infer from some tracing that is a third of oppenheimer and this area where it is overperforming? Sorry if this is annoying! i'm new.