Kinda make you appreciate how Disney can score 3 animation hits (JB is practically an animation) before the summer is over. Four in a single year, if Moana is successful.
Well, those Spider-Man movies turns out..pretty good. But I still think Raimi is not the best guy for the job.
And yea, Raimi did Dark Man, but that movie is way too campy for my taste.
Don't know why Hollywood keeps giving Justin Lin, a pretty good action director, all kinds of genre projects. He did True Detective for HBO, a science fiction franchise for Paramount, and was offered the Terminator project at one time. What's next, a musical? OTOH, James Wan, another young filmmaker, sticks to his genre and excels every time. F7 is a serviceable movie (not requiring his skill with slow-build suspense). Jury is still out on Aquaman but I don't know why Warner picked him...?
So 14 in the can, and the rest:
Ghostbusters
Star Trek Beyond
Jason Bourne
Suicide Squad
Sully
Magnificent Seven
Storks
Deepwater Horizon
Peregrin's Peculiar Children
Fantastic Beasts
Moana
Girl on a Train
Birth of a Nation
Dr Strange
Allied
Billy Lynn's Long Walk
Rogue One
Assassin's Creed
Sing
Passengers
Kubo, Bad Moms, Trolls could be in the list.
Near miss?
Looks like IA5 is not a threat at all. $480M is all but foregone conclusion. If Disney decides to keep it in theatres longer with theatre boost, $490M is reachable.
Even $500M is not out of reach.
Dory is not experiencing Zootopia's sub 40% drops so it is likely to end up at $470M - $480M range.
Unless Disney keeps it longer in theatres which is not likely because they know Dory would make
more money on BluRay & DVD (my god they still selling those things!)
If Dory slows down to $490M, maybe it is possible to push it past $500M.
But if it drops badly in the next few weeks especially with the release of Ice Age Collision,
no amount of pushing will get it over the 500 hill.
You forgot Conjuring 2. Allied, Sully, Deepwater Horizon, Inferno & Jack Reacher 2 may hit $100M. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk & Birth of a Nation are so hyped, it may piqued interest beyond its demographics & target audience. Assassin's Creed should hit $100M confidently helped by the presence of built-in audience & those superb trailers. I agree with most of your list with the exception of La La Land & Space Between US. The last is the least likely to hit 100.
Conjuring 2, ID:R, Tarzan, Pets, Ghostbusters, Ice Age Collision, Star Trek Beyond, Jason Bourne, Suicide Squad would add to a combined total of 19 movies earning $100M or more in the period of Jan- August, matching 2015's 19. 2016 is not exactly doom and gloom. Don't Breathe, Pete's Dragon, Ben Hur may even break out.
IDR is the most disappointing of them all. But I figure people are tired of
alien invasion movies. I wonder how much gross can Will Smith add them
MI3 gross is merely good compared to their sequels.