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JJ-8

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Everything posted by JJ-8

  1. The hunger games is having a nice run here.... 14m+ already.... with Christmas coming... 20m looks well within reach.
  2. Barbie vs Top Films Updated. As already noted, Barbie has put up the 4th highest 4th weekend behind the 2 Avatar films and Top Gun Maverick from last year. This is after putting up the highest 3rd weekend however so is a small drop off. It should be noted Barbie is the 3rd fastest to 70m in Australia only behind Star Wars TFA and AEG which were both closer to 80m at this point but falling away much faster. Sadly this was Barbies biggest weekend drop to date (40%). From here on out the trajectory takes anywhere between 80m and 95m with 80m being average 50% drops from here on out and 95m being average 25% drops from here on out. I still think Barbie can leg it out to 90m from here but it's going to be a close call if the drops continue above 35%. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Barbie Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 20/07/2023 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $19,563,842 $21,567,662 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $6,259,906 $27,827,,568 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 768 25,474 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) 6,400,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $17,453,004 $45,280,572 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 $4,179,321 $49,459,893 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -5.8% -51.4% -10.8% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $11,474,787 $60,934,680 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 $2,452,582 $63,387,262 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $6,881,896 $70,269,158 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 $3,256,213 $86,242,824 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 $1,723,928 $88,787,056 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $93,070,000 $93,740,176 $70,269,158 Projected 80-95m
  3. Showdown Barbie vs Avatar etc Barbie is the 3rd fastest film to 60m as it continues to put up the highest weekends (Top 2nd, 3rd so far). Continuing to play as a mostly weekend film (probably due to school being in) it's well on it's way to a 85m+ finish here (for reference that is like it earning 850m Stateside). Currently it trails only SWTFA and AEG at the same points in their runs and those films had Christmas holidays to support their runs to this point. I do suspect that Barbie may still fall short of 90m as while it leads Avatar TWOW, TWOW is continuing to catch Barbie thanks to it's weekly total (even though weekends are stronger to Barbie) and that film only made it to 93m. Still an amazing run whichever way you look at it and unexpected. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Barbie Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 20/07/2023 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $19,563,842 $21,567,662 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $6,259,906 $27,827,,568 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 768 25,474 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) 6,400,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $17,453,004 $45,280,572 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 $4,179,321 $49,459,893 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -5.8% -51.4% -10.8% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $11,474,787 $60,934,680 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 $2,452,582 $63,387,262 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 $3,256,213 $86,242,824 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 $1,723,928 $88,787,056 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $93,070,000 $93,740,176 $63,387,262 Projected 85-95m
  4. Fun game guys..... 1 predict i miss and i'm out oh well .. good luck everyone!
  5. Part A Answer These Questions YES or NO. Please put the YES or NO **AT THE FRONT BEFORE THE QUESTION**. By doing this you get 250 Bonus Points! Yes 1. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 5M Opening Weekend? 1000 Yes 2. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 10M Opening Weekend? 2000 No 3. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 16M Opening Weekend? 3000 Yes 4. Will My Happy Ending Make More Than $750,000 Opening Weekend? 4000 Yes 5. 5000 Yes 6. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 3M Opening Weekend? 1000 Yes 7. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 6M Opening Weekend? 2000 No 8. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 9M Opening Weekend? 3000 No 9 Will Mummies (Limited) Make More than $500,000 Open Weekend? 4000 Yes 10. 5000 Yes 11. Will AMATWQ Drop More than 50% This Weekend? 1000 Yes 12. Will The Combined Top 10 Be MORE Than 69.01M? 2000 Yes 13. Will The Combined Top 10 Be LESS Than 80.01M? 3000 No 14. Will Missing Stay in the Top 10 this Weekend? 4000 Yep 🙄15. Will Jesus Revolution Make Cap Rewatch Kelsey Grammar's Greatest Performance Ever -- Him Leaving Camille on Season One of RHOBH To "Go Do A Play" in NYC? 5000 Part B Cocaine Bear: Three Day Opening? 13.22m Knock At The Cabin: Drop Percentage From Last Weekend? -44.3% What Film Will Have the Best Hold in Top 10? Puss in boots Part C What Films Will Land in The Following Spots on the Weekend Box Office Chart: 2. Cocaine bear 3. Jesus rev 5. Puss in boots 7. Brady 9. Marlowe 11. Otto 12. titanic 14. Megan Part A Accuracy Bonuses: 11/21 - 20 12/21 - 40 13/21 - 60 14/21 - 90 15/21 - 120 16/21 - 150 17/21 - 180 18/21 - 220 19/21 - 250 20/21 - 300 21/21 - 350 Part B Scoring: 1st Closest: Within 1% - 150 points; Within 2.5% - 120 points; Within 5% - 90, Within 10% - 60; Outside 10% - 30 Points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 120 points; Within 2.5% - 100 points; Within 5% - 70, Within 10% - 40; Outside 10% - 20 Points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 100 points; Within 2.5% - 80 points; Within 5% - 50, Within 10% - 20; Outside 10% - 10 Points Part C Scoring: 1/8 10 2/8 20 3/8 40 4/8 100 5/8 180 6/8 250 7/8 360 8/8 - 500
  6. Rough time of year to open a film here. No holidays to support. School is on so that Fri number is prob expected. Expecting stronger sat/sun.
  7. Part A Answer These Questions YES or NO. Please put the YES or NO **AT THE FRONT BEFORE THE QUESTION**. By doing this you get 250 Bonus Points! YES 1. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 50M? 1000 points YES 2. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 75M? 2000 points YES 3. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 100M? 3000 points YES 4. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania's True Friday Be Closer to Its Sunday Number than Saturday Number? 4000 points YES 5. Will Nine Other Films in the Top 10 Be LESS than Ant-Man and the Wasp's Total for FRIDAY? 5000 points NO 6. Will Of Age Open to Above 2M? 1000 NO 7. Will Of Age Open to Above 5M? 2000 NO 8. Will Of Age Open to Above 10M? 3000 YES 9. Will Emily Open to Above 250,000? 4000 YES 10. Will What Comes Around Open Above 500,000? 5000 YES 11. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania's Thursday Previews Exceed 15M? 1000 points NO 12. Will Magic Mike Stay Above Avatar? 2000 points NO 13. Will 80 For Brady drop less than -46.99% 3000 points NO 14. Will Plane Stay in the Top 10? 4000 Points ONLY TIME WILL TELL GO WITH NO 15. Will Cassie Lang will Not Be Nearly as Cute Or Awesome Cause Now She's A Teenager? 5000 Part B Predict AMTAW:Q's Three Day Opening? 133.8m Predict the Avatar's Drop Percentage From Last Weekend? -34.1% What Already Released Film In The Top 10 Will Have the Best Hold? Avatar: The Way of Water Part C What Films Will Land in The Following Spots on the Weekend Box Office Chart: 2. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. Magic Mike's Last Dance 5. Marlowe 7. Of an Age 9. Missing 11. Plane 12. M3GAN 14. What Comes Around Part A Accuracy Bonuses: 11/21 - 20 12/21 - 40 13/21 - 60 14/21 - 90 15/21 - 120 16/21 - 150 17/21 - 180 18/21 - 220 19/21 - 250 20/21 - 300 21/21 - 360 Part B Scoring: 1st Closest: Within 1% - 150 points; Within 2.5% - 120 points; Within 5% - 90, Within 10% - 60; Outside 10% - 30 Points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 120 points; Within 2.5% - 100 points; Within 5% - 70, Within 10% - 40; Outside 10% - 20 Points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 100 points; Within 2.5% - 80 points; Within 5% - 50, Within 10% - 20; Outside 10% - 10 Points Part C Scoring: 1/8 10 2/8 20 3/8 40 4/8 100 5/8 180 6/8 250 7/8 360 8/8 - 500
  8. Yes post into this thread - wrath has answered his at the top of the page (you will need to unravel)
  9. As a follow up I did an extended comparison with Avatar to give you idea how leggy that run was out to 20 weeks. Movie Avatar Avatar: The Way of Water Released 17/12/2009 16/12/2022 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $1,846,552 $1,846,552 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 1,281 11,509 Opening Day 3,000,000 EST Single Day 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 W/E % Drop -26.90% -51.40% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 Week 9 $2,850,321 $102,615,052 Week 10 $1,874,114 $105,454,142 Week 11 $1,709,239 $107,859,934 Week 12 $1,003,500 $109,539,127 Week 13 $780,998 $110,866,504 Week 14 $561,868 $111,653,739 Week 15 $323,301 $112,170,651 Week 16 $296,592 $112,634,016 Week 17 $197,100 $113,030,587 Week 18 $171,377 $113,306,853 Week 19 $302,534 $113,690,469 Week 20 $168,482 $114,044,223 TOTAL $115,623,586 $83,037,970
  10. Top Films Showdown I've removed No Way Home as it's now been surpassed by Avatar TWOW. Avatar TWOW will surpasse AEG sometime over the weekend (probably already has by this post) moving it up to 4th all time only behind TGM, SW: TFA and Avatar itself. Avatar TWOW continues to lead TGM by around 9m and while it lost a little ground over the past weekend is still in a good place to pass TGM before the end of it's run (93m). TWOW is catching up with the run total of TFA at a very fast rate as that film had fallen off a cliff by this point. I'm thinking that the 94m total is well within reach now. The real question is, can TWOW make it to 100m. Avatar had reached 92m after the coming weekend, while TWOW will probably be between 85m and 87m after the weekend is done. Which means TWOW isn't going to reach the same heights of it's predeccessor. 115m is out of the question (actually don't forget Avatar only reached 114.6m when it first exited the top 20 and received a rerelease in August of 2010 where it bumped it up over the 115m mark - this is considered part of the original run as Avatar never left theatres during that time.) (*** I'm also ignoring the > 3.2m or so Avatar has made in re-releases since then - especially in Sept/Oct of last year) My projection is for exactly 100m at the moment. but I have a +/- 5m on that final right hence the range below. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -5.8% -51.4% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $93,070,000 $83,037,970 Projected 95m-105m
  11. Only needs 8.6m+ to be the record 4th weekend. Well within its grasp
  12. I wouldn't say easily. 8.3m is still up there but a 2m Thursday normally shoukd to a 8.5m-9.5m weekend. Yet another crazy hold if true. Which barring a crazy collapse locks 100m 🤷‍♂️ and frankly keeps A2 on the path to surpasse the what was thought impossible. Remember no film has come within 20m of avatar as yet.
  13. I would say it’s getting close to locked. I’d 80m seems like the floor right now. So not much of a stretch to 85m. Remember, A2 is ahead of A1 by 4m and is posting stronger days over its 3rd weekend.
  14. Avatar TWOW - 17.6m Avatar - 16.1m Star Wars TFA - 14m Not sure if there is anything in between but Top Gun Maverick - 12.8m Spiderman NWH - 9.6m There just isn't anything else that grossed high enough to figure in the 3rd week highest grosses.
  15. fixed - my bad, somehow had done a copy paste of the total after the weekend and missed it!
  16. and for shits and giggles here is a comparison against Rogue One Given Rogue Ones total is already in the rear view mirror for Avatar TWOW. Movie Avatar Avatar: The Way of Water Rogue One Released 17/12/2009 16/12/2022 16/12/2019 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $14,757,697 $14,757,697 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 1,281 11,509 932 15834 Opening Day 3,000,000 EST Single Day 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $4,500,620 $24,870,204 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 W/E % Drop -26.9% -51.4% -70% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $5,886,394 $37,554,564 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 7, Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $2,992,374 $43,776,227 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $1,883,041 $47,136,474 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,039,532 $48,982,127 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $627,089 $50,074,073 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $348,193 $50,627,326 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $51,424,196 $51,459,799 Projected
  17. Top Films in AUD Comparison Avatar TWOW continues perform above all it's competitors. Weekend and weekly totals since boxing day have continued to perform above the original Avatar run. Avatar TWOW now leads Avatar by 4m at the same point (end of the 3rd week) which is an increase of 1m since sunday. In more recent comperisons, Avatar TWOW is just shy of the running total of Spiderman NWH after starting some 10m behind after its first weekend (EDIT - thanks lab i had copied the total down before fixed with NWH over 61m). The latest 3rd week, weekdays were nearly double what NWH made. NWH of course went on to make nearly 82m in the same timeframe in 2021/2022. hence i've lifted the basement for Avatar TWOW to 80m now. Lastly, Avatar TWOW is now nearly 10m in front of Top Gun Maverick which had some magnificent legs through the middle of the year. However the weekly and weekend totals for week 3 easily outperfermed maverick. Hence i've made it a wide range - 80m to 110m right now. I think a trajectory around 95m seems good for now but there are lots of indicators that this could go higher and even threaten OG Avatar's total (in AUD) Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Spider-Man: No Way Home Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 16/12/2021 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $26,187,275 $26,187,275 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $10,381,710 $36,568,985 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 1,121 23,361 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 9,000,000 EST 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 9,000,000 EST (Thursday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $7,162,435 $43,731,420 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $8,467,709 $52,199,129 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -72.6% -5.8% -51.4% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $6,084,365 $58,286,056 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,614,236 $61,900,292 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $4,014,704 $65,914,996 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $1,668,631 $67,583,627 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $2,711,317 $70,294,944 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $2,152,017 $73,763,056 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $1,663,407 $76,660,960 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $1,055,022 $78,228,024 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $81,750,000 $93,070,000 $58,436,846 Projected 80m-110m
  18. ok so i've done some analysis of by comparing against Rogue One. Rogue 1 has already dropped off the pace. Rogue One WE 1 - 14.8m / 14.8m WE 2 - 4.5m (-69.5%) / 24.9m WE 3 - 5.9m (+30.8%) / 37.6m TOTAL = 51.5m Now in comparison Avatar TWOW WE 1 - 14.7m / 16.6m WE 2 - 7.2m / 30.8m WE 3 - 10.6m / 51.4m Reason for comparing here is because Rogue One was the last big film to open with Christmas and NYD both falling on the exact same time as Avatar TWOW's run. (Xmas = 11th Day of run in both cases) For some simple comparisons, I used Rogue One's run as a comparison : starting with a 10m 3rd weekend. - using Rogue Ones weekend drops -> Avatar TWOW reaches 76m - Taking into account Avatar continues to outperform Rogue One drops / increases by approx 15% (which is what it has done each of the first 2 weeks (excluding week 1).) I reach around 95m - 100m. This weekend will be telling against rogue One, Rogue dropped 49% on it's 4th weekend. a drop sub 40% puts Avatar TWOW on track for a total > 90m and possibly higher.
  19. apologies everyone, i misread - the numbers i posted before were totals (full week including boxing day) not weekend numbers. Looks like Avatar TWOW did manage a 10m 3rd weekend all in AUD 1 (1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 10.6m (+48%) / 51.4m 2 (-) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - 2.2m / 5.1m 3 (-) Lyl, Lyle Crocodile - 1.6m / 3.7m 4 (-) Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody - 1.2m / 2.2m 5 (-) The Banshees of Inisherin - 659k / 1.6m 6 (-) A Man Called Otto - 479k / 479k 7 (3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 238k (-7%) / 29.1m 8 (-) The Lost King - 215k / 571k 9 (-) Triangle of Sadness - 203k / 617k 10 (-) Blueback - 171k / 288k Updated from the Numbers. Interesting that only 2 films survived from last weekend (A2 & BP2) After posting one the weakest 2nd weekends among the top 5 films of all time in Australia, Avatar The Way of Water appears to have posted the biggest 3rd weekend ever! (first film to top 10m on it's third weekend). A2 is now 3m in front of Avatar at the same point its run with a stronger 3rd weekend by 1m. only time will tell whether Avatar TWOT can hold the same trajectory as Avatar. at this point, 70m is a lock, and i'm beginning to feel like 80m is a lock with this 3rd weekend. the 4th weekend will give us a clue to whether 100m is on the cards here in australia for only the 2nd time ever!
  20. Only seen the openers so far puss in boots - 5.1m lyle Lyle croc - 3.7m Whitney Houston - 2.2m
  21. sorry it's a bit big - might cut out a few but thought i'd include all the films that have made that high ...... it will be interesting whether the weekend will see bump like avatar did (then all bets are off where it lands) or a small fall in line with Star Wars / Spiderman which probably means Avatar will land closer 75m.
  22. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Spider-Man: No Way Home Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 16/12/2021 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 $1,846,652 $1,846,652 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $26,187,275 $26,187,275 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $10,381,710 $36,568,985 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $7,012,032 $23,601,780 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 1,121 23,361 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 9,000,000 EST 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 9,000,000 EST (Thursday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $7,162,435 $43,731,420 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,665 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $8,467,709 $52,199,129 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,884 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -72.6% -5.8% -51.4% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $6,084,365 $58,286,056 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,614,236 $58,286,056 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $4,014,704 $65,914,996 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $1,668,631 $67,583,627 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $2,711,317 $70,294,944 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $2,152,017 $73,763,056 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $1,663,407 $76,660,960 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $1,055,022 $78,228,024 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $81,750,000 $93,070,000 75m-95m Projected
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