JJ-8
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Barbie vs Top Films
Updated.
As already noted, Barbie has put up the 4th highest 4th weekend behind the 2 Avatar films and Top Gun Maverick from last year. This is after putting up the highest 3rd weekend however so is a small drop off. It should be noted Barbie is the 3rd fastest to 70m in Australia only behind Star Wars TFA and AEG which were both closer to 80m at this point but falling away much faster. Sadly this was Barbies biggest weekend drop to date (40%). From here on out the trajectory takes anywhere between 80m and 95m with 80m being average 50% drops from here on out and 95m being average 25% drops from here on out. I still think Barbie can leg it out to 90m from here but it's going to be a close call if the drops continue above 35%.
Movie
Avatar
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Avengers: Endgame
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Barbie
Released
17/12/2009
17/12/2015
24/04/2019
26/05/2022
16/12/2022
20/07/2023
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
$10,290,526
$10,290,526
$1,346,822
$1,346,822
Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$27,254,820
$27,254,820
$34,116,525
$44,394,082
$13,788,797
$15,135,619
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$19,563,842
$21,567,662
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$11,286,747
$38,541,567
$7,781,367
$52,175,449
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$6,259,906
$27,827,,568
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
941
28,964
1,112
30,680
905
15,236
1,281
11,509
768
25,474
Opening Day
9,425,000
10,290,526
2,500,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
9,425,000 (Thursday)
10,290,526 (Wednesday)
5,000,000 EST (Saturday)
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
6,400,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$11,800,884
$50,342,451
$13,597,138
$65,772,587
$12,988,636
$32,732,084
$7,160,885
$30,762,664
$17,453,004
$45,280,572
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,604,824
$60,947,275
$3,094,595
$68,867,182
$3,910,391
$36,643,195
$10,027,219
$40,789,883
$4,179,321
$49,459,893
W/E % Drop
-26.9%
-56.7%
-60.1%
-5.8%
-51.4%
-10.8%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$9,001,962
$69,949,237
$5,450,085
$74,317,267
$8,856,601
$45,499,796
$10,629,969
$51,424,196
$11,474,787
$60,934,680
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
$5,017,486
$74,966,723
$1,278,696
$75,595,963
$3,967,915
$49,499,796
$7,012,650
$58,436,846
$2,452,582
$63,387,262
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$4,917,825
$79,884,548
$3,071,304
$78,667,267
$6,937,497
$56,405,208
$8,275,562
$66,712,040
$6,881,896
$70,269,158
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
$2,249,767
$82,134,315
$644,464
$79,311,731
$2,424,242
$58,829,450
$3,260,094
$69,972,134
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$2,988,963
$85,123,278
$1,519,720
$80,831,451
$5,349,050
$64,178,500
$5,178,706
$75,150,840
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$1,826,202
$88,275,958
$790,477
$82,022,485
$5,777,726
$72,966,168
$4,041,478
$81,386,424
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
$1,290,271
$90,638,978
$499,225
$82,753,423
$2,762,622
$78,029,960
$3,256,213
$86,242,824
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
$754,425
$91,783,059
$256,402
$83,232,204
$2,189,240
$81,288,912
$1,723,928
$88,787,056
TOTAL:
$115,623,586
$94,034,011
$84,258,444
$93,070,000
$93,740,176
$70,269,158
Projected
80-95m
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Showdown Barbie vs Avatar etc
Barbie is the 3rd fastest film to 60m as it continues to put up the highest weekends (Top 2nd, 3rd so far). Continuing to play as a mostly weekend film (probably due to school being in) it's well on it's way to a 85m+ finish here (for reference that is like it earning 850m Stateside). Currently it trails only SWTFA and AEG at the same points in their runs and those films had Christmas holidays to support their runs to this point. I do suspect that Barbie may still fall short of 90m as while it leads Avatar TWOW, TWOW is continuing to catch Barbie thanks to it's weekly total (even though weekends are stronger to Barbie) and that film only made it to 93m. Still an amazing run whichever way you look at it and unexpected.
Movie
Avatar
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Avengers: Endgame
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Barbie
Released
17/12/2009
17/12/2015
24/04/2019
26/05/2022
16/12/2022
20/07/2023
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
$10,290,526
$10,290,526
$1,346,822
$1,346,822
Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$27,254,820
$27,254,820
$34,116,525
$44,394,082
$13,788,797
$15,135,619
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$19,563,842
$21,567,662
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$11,286,747
$38,541,567
$7,781,367
$52,175,449
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$6,259,906
$27,827,,568
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
941
28,964
1,112
30,680
905
15,236
1,281
11,509
768
25,474
Opening Day
9,425,000
10,290,526
2,500,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
9,425,000 (Thursday)
10,290,526 (Wednesday)
5,000,000 EST (Saturday)
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
6,400,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$11,800,884
$50,342,451
$13,597,138
$65,772,587
$12,988,636
$32,732,084
$7,160,885
$30,762,664
$17,453,004
$45,280,572
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,604,824
$60,947,275
$3,094,595
$68,867,182
$3,910,391
$36,643,195
$10,027,219
$40,789,883
$4,179,321
$49,459,893
W/E % Drop
-26.9%
-56.7%
-60.1%
-5.8%
-51.4%
-10.8%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$9,001,962
$69,949,237
$5,450,085
$74,317,267
$8,856,601
$45,499,796
$10,629,969
$51,424,196
$11,474,787
$60,934,680
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
$5,017,486
$74,966,723
$1,278,696
$75,595,963
$3,967,915
$49,499,796
$7,012,650
$58,436,846
$2,452,582
$63,387,262
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$4,917,825
$79,884,548
$3,071,304
$78,667,267
$6,937,497
$56,405,208
$8,275,562
$66,712,040
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
$2,249,767
$82,134,315
$644,464
$79,311,731
$2,424,242
$58,829,450
$3,260,094
$69,972,134
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$2,988,963
$85,123,278
$1,519,720
$80,831,451
$5,349,050
$64,178,500
$5,178,706
$75,150,840
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$1,826,202
$88,275,958
$790,477
$82,022,485
$5,777,726
$72,966,168
$4,041,478
$81,386,424
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
$1,290,271
$90,638,978
$499,225
$82,753,423
$2,762,622
$78,029,960
$3,256,213
$86,242,824
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
$754,425
$91,783,059
$256,402
$83,232,204
$2,189,240
$81,288,912
$1,723,928
$88,787,056
TOTAL:
$115,623,586
$94,034,011
$84,258,444
$93,070,000
$93,740,176
$63,387,262
Projected
85-95m
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Fun game guys..... 1 predict i miss and i'm out
oh well .. good luck everyone!
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I've been debating whether i play -why not ... count me in
(if there is a spot available)
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Part A
Answer These Questions YES or NO. Please put the YES or NO **AT THE FRONT BEFORE THE QUESTION**. By doing this you get 250 Bonus Points!
Yes 1. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 5M Opening Weekend? 1000
Yes 2. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 10M Opening Weekend? 2000
No 3. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 16M Opening Weekend? 3000
Yes 4. Will My Happy Ending Make More Than $750,000 Opening Weekend? 4000
Yes 5. 5000
Yes 6. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 3M Opening Weekend? 1000
Yes 7. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 6M Opening Weekend? 2000
No 8. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 9M Opening Weekend? 3000
No 9 Will Mummies (Limited) Make More than $500,000 Open Weekend? 4000
Yes 10. 5000
Yes 11. Will AMATWQ Drop More than 50% This Weekend? 1000
Yes 12. Will The Combined Top 10 Be MORE Than 69.01M? 2000
Yes 13. Will The Combined Top 10 Be LESS Than 80.01M? 3000
No 14. Will Missing Stay in the Top 10 this Weekend? 4000
Yep 🙄15. Will Jesus Revolution Make Cap Rewatch Kelsey Grammar's Greatest Performance Ever -- Him Leaving Camille on Season One of RHOBH To "Go Do A Play" in NYC? 5000
Part B
Cocaine Bear: Three Day Opening? 13.22m Knock At The Cabin: Drop Percentage From Last Weekend? -44.3%
What Film Will Have the Best Hold in Top 10? Puss in boots
Part C
What Films Will Land in The Following Spots on the Weekend Box Office Chart:
2. Cocaine bear
3. Jesus rev
5. Puss in boots
7. Brady
9. Marlowe
11. Otto
12. titanic
14. Megan
Part A Accuracy Bonuses: 11/21 - 20 12/21 - 40 13/21 - 60 14/21 - 90 15/21 - 120 16/21 - 150 17/21 - 180 18/21 - 220 19/21 - 250 20/21 - 300 21/21 - 350 Part B Scoring: 1st Closest: Within 1% - 150 points; Within 2.5% - 120 points; Within 5% - 90, Within 10% - 60; Outside 10% - 30 Points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 120 points; Within 2.5% - 100 points; Within 5% - 70, Within 10% - 40; Outside 10% - 20 Points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 100 points; Within 2.5% - 80 points; Within 5% - 50, Within 10% - 20; Outside 10% - 10 Points Part C Scoring: 1/8 10 2/8 20 3/8 40 4/8 100 5/8 180 6/8 250 7/8 360 8/8 - 500
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Rough time of year to open a film here. No holidays to support. School is on so that Fri number is prob expected. Expecting stronger sat/sun.
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Part A
Answer These Questions YES or NO. Please put the YES or NO **AT THE FRONT BEFORE THE QUESTION**. By doing this you get 250 Bonus Points!
YES 1. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 50M? 1000 points
YES 2. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 75M? 2000 points
YES 3. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 100M? 3000 points
YES 4. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania's True Friday Be Closer to Its Sunday Number than Saturday Number? 4000 points
YES 5. Will Nine Other Films in the Top 10 Be LESS than Ant-Man and the Wasp's Total for FRIDAY? 5000 points
NO 6. Will Of Age Open to Above 2M? 1000
NO 7. Will Of Age Open to Above 5M? 2000
NO 8. Will Of Age Open to Above 10M? 3000
YES 9. Will Emily Open to Above 250,000? 4000
YES 10. Will What Comes Around Open Above 500,000? 5000
YES 11. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania's Thursday Previews Exceed 15M? 1000 points
NO 12. Will Magic Mike Stay Above Avatar? 2000 points
NO 13. Will 80 For Brady drop less than -46.99% 3000 points
NO 14. Will Plane Stay in the Top 10? 4000 Points
ONLY TIME WILL TELL
GO WITH NO 15. Will Cassie Lang will Not Be Nearly as Cute Or Awesome Cause Now She's A Teenager? 5000
Part B
- Predict AMTAW:Q's Three Day Opening? 133.8m
- Predict the Avatar's Drop Percentage From Last Weekend? -34.1%
- What Already Released Film In The Top 10 Will Have the Best Hold? Avatar: The Way of Water
Part C
What Films Will Land in The Following Spots on the Weekend Box Office Chart:
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Magic Mike's Last Dance
5. Marlowe
7. Of an Age
9. Missing
11. Plane
12. M3GAN
14. What Comes Around
Part A Accuracy Bonuses:
- 11/21 - 20
- 12/21 - 40
- 13/21 - 60
- 14/21 - 90
- 15/21 - 120
- 16/21 - 150
- 17/21 - 180
- 18/21 - 220
- 19/21 - 250
- 20/21 - 300
- 21/21 - 360
Part B Scoring:
- 1st Closest: Within 1% - 150 points; Within 2.5% - 120 points; Within 5% - 90, Within 10% - 60; Outside 10% - 30 Points
- 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 120 points; Within 2.5% - 100 points; Within 5% - 70, Within 10% - 40; Outside 10% - 20 Points
- 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 100 points; Within 2.5% - 80 points; Within 5% - 50, Within 10% - 20; Outside 10% - 10 Points
Part C Scoring:
- 1/8 10
- 2/8 20
- 3/8 40
- 4/8 100
- 5/8 180
- 6/8 250
- 7/8 360
- 8/8 - 500
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Quote
PLAYER TEMPLATE
QUOTE THIS DIRECTLY PLEASE AND THANK YOU
PART A
DOMESTIC TOP 10
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 379.1m
- John Wick: Chapter 4 - 184.6m
- Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 144.0m
- Dungeons & Dragon: Honor Among Thieves - 102.4m
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 90.7m
- Creed III - 80.9m
- AIR - 64.5m
- Renfield - 62.5m
- Evil Dead Rise - 45.1m
- Scream VI - 44.0m
PART B
TOP OPENINGS
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 133.8m
- John Wick: Chapter 4 - 63.2m
- Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 52.3m
- Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - 36.5m
- Creed III - 30.1m
PART C
TOP 5 THURSDAY PREVIEWS
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 20m
- Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 10m
- John Wick: Chapter 4 - 8m
- Creed III - 4m
- Scream VI - 3m
😄 RANDOM FREE QUESTIONS
This 2023 we have three generous risk-free questions to start you off:
RFQ1: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game:
25M Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World
50M Evil Dead Rise
100M Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
150M Shazam! Fury of the Gods
200M John Wick: Chapter 4
RFQ2: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones for their best 3 Day Weekend by the end of the game (Only a films highest Weekend gross is eligible):
15M The Pope's Exorcist
30M Creed III
45M Shazam! Fury of the Gods
60M John Wick: Chapter 4
75M John Wick: Chapter 4
RFQ3: Predict which film will end up closest to each of the following milestones by the end of the game:
Lowest Second Weekend Drop: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Second Weekend Drop: 65
Lowest Third Weekend Drop: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Third Weekend Drop: My Happy Ending
Highest Fourth Weekend Drop: Jesus Revolution
😧 RANDOM QUESTIONS OF DANGER
This winter we have twelve generous risk-heavy questions to start you off:
1. How much will the Top 5 Best Weekend's combined gross be??
a) Less Than 200M
b) 201M-275M c) More Than 276M2. Avatar's February Gross Will Be Closer To:
a) 25M
b) 60M c) 101M3. Which of the following Studios will have the highest grossing film?
a) Disney
b) Universal c) Warner Bros4. How many films will gross more than $100M?
a) 6 or fewer
b) 7-8 c) 9 or more5. How many films will gross less than 50M?
a) 5 or fewerb) 7-8c) 9 or more6. How many films will gross between 200-299M?
a) 1-2
b)3-4 c) 5 or MoreNote i've selected a) BUT i believe that it will be 0 films - for a lack of option i've selected a
7. Which studio will have the most films in places 1-5?
a) Disney
b) Universal c) Warner Bros8. Which studio will have the most films in places 6-10?
a) Universal
b) Sony c) Warner Bros9. How many different films will finish 1st Domestic, 1st Top Weekend, and 1st WW?
a) 1
b) 2 c) 3 or more10. Which of the following will have the highest combined Domestic gross?
a) Mario + Cocaine Bearb) 65 + Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quatamaniac) John Wick 4 + Shazam11. How much will the Domestic Top 10’s combined gross be?
a) Less than $1Bb) $1.01B-1.6Bc) Over $1.6B12. How much will the top 5 best Weekends’ combined gross be?
a) Less than $300Mb) $300M-$400Mc) Over $400MAnd there is my answers!
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1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:
So do we post our templates here? I don't see any yet. Does that mean no one has submitted their answers?
Yes post into this thread - wrath has answered his at the top of the page (you will need to unravel)
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As a follow up I did an extended comparison with Avatar to give you idea how leggy that run was out to 20 weeks.
Movie
Avatar
Avatar: The Way of Water
Released
17/12/2009
16/12/2022
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
$1,846,552
$1,846,552
Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
1,281
11,509
Opening Day
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$7,160,885
$30,762,664
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,027,219
$40,789,883
W/E % Drop
-26.90%
-51.40%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$10,629,969
$51,424,196
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
$7,012,650
$58,436,846
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$8,275,562
$66,712,040
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
$3,260,094
$69,972,134
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$5,178,706
$75,150,840
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$4,041,478
$81,386,424
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
Week 9
$2,850,321
$102,615,052
Week 10
$1,874,114
$105,454,142
Week 11
$1,709,239
$107,859,934
Week 12
$1,003,500
$109,539,127
Week 13
$780,998
$110,866,504
Week 14
$561,868
$111,653,739
Week 15
$323,301
$112,170,651
Week 16
$296,592
$112,634,016
Week 17
$197,100
$113,030,587
Week 18
$171,377
$113,306,853
Week 19
$302,534
$113,690,469
Week 20
$168,482
$114,044,223
TOTAL
$115,623,586
$83,037,970
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Top Films Showdown
I've removed No Way Home as it's now been surpassed by Avatar TWOW. Avatar TWOW will surpasse AEG sometime over the weekend (probably already has by this post) moving it up to 4th all time only behind TGM, SW: TFA and Avatar itself. Avatar TWOW continues to lead TGM by around 9m and while it lost a little ground over the past weekend is still in a good place to pass TGM before the end of it's run (93m). TWOW is catching up with the run total of TFA at a very fast rate as that film had fallen off a cliff by this point. I'm thinking that the 94m total is well within reach now. The real question is, can TWOW make it to 100m. Avatar had reached 92m after the coming weekend, while TWOW will probably be between 85m and 87m after the weekend is done. Which means TWOW isn't going to reach the same heights of it's predeccessor. 115m is out of the question (actually don't forget Avatar only reached 114.6m when it first exited the top 20 and received a rerelease in August of 2010 where it bumped it up over the 115m mark - this is considered part of the original run as Avatar never left theatres during that time.) (*** I'm also ignoring the > 3.2m or so Avatar has made in re-releases since then - especially in Sept/Oct of last year)
My projection is for exactly 100m at the moment. but I have a +/- 5m on that final right hence the range below.
Movie
Avatar
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Avengers: Endgame
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Released
17/12/2009
17/12/2015
24/04/2019
26/05/2022
16/12/2022
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
$10,290,526
$10,290,526
$1,346,822
$1,346,822
Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$27,254,820
$27,254,820
$34,116,525
$44,394,082
$13,788,797
$15,135,619
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$11,286,747
$38,541,567
$7,781,367
$52,175,449
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
941
28,964
1,112
30,680
905
15,236
1,281
11,509
Opening Day
9,425,000
10,290,526
2,500,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
9,425,000 (Thursday)
10,290,526 (Wednesday)
5,000,000 EST (Saturday)
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$11,800,884
$50,342,451
$13,597,138
$65,772,587
$12,988,636
$32,732,084
$7,160,885
$30,762,664
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,604,824
$60,947,275
$3,094,595
$68,867,182
$3,910,391
$36,643,195
$10,027,219
$40,789,883
W/E % Drop
-26.9%
-56.7%
-60.1%
-5.8%
-51.4%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$9,001,962
$69,949,237
$5,450,085
$74,317,267
$8,856,601
$45,499,796
$10,629,969
$51,424,196
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
$5,017,486
$74,966,723
$1,278,696
$75,595,963
$3,967,915
$49,499,796
$7,012,650
$58,436,846
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$4,917,825
$79,884,548
$3,071,304
$78,667,267
$6,937,497
$56,405,208
$8,275,562
$66,712,040
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
$2,249,767
$82,134,315
$644,464
$79,311,731
$2,424,242
$58,829,450
$3,260,094
$69,972,134
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$2,988,963
$85,123,278
$1,519,720
$80,831,451
$5,349,050
$64,178,500
$5,178,706
$75,150,840
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$1,826,202
$88,275,958
$790,477
$82,022,485
$5,777,726
$72,966,168
$4,041,478
$81,386,424
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
$1,290,271
$90,638,978
$499,225
$82,753,423
$2,762,622
$78,029,960
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
$754,425
$91,783,059
$256,402
$83,232,204
$2,189,240
$81,288,912
TOTAL:
$115,623,586
$94,034,011
$84,258,444
$93,070,000
$83,037,970
Projected
95m-105m
-
5
-
1
-
-
This just might bring me out of the woodwork. 🤠
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1
-
1
-
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13 hours ago, Robertron said:
Even Thu-Sun being completely flat is $8m. It’s dropping possibly sub 25% from a record 3rd weekend.. wtf is this anymore!?
Only needs 8.6m+ to be the record 4th weekend. Well within its grasp
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1
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1 hour ago, Fanboy said:
If Thursday was $2M weekend should easily be over Avatar 4th weekend then right? 100M is happening.
I wouldn't say easily. 8.3m is still up there but a 2m Thursday normally shoukd to a 8.5m-9.5m weekend. Yet another crazy hold if true. Which barring a crazy collapse locks 100m 🤷♂️ and frankly keeps A2 on the path to surpasse the what was thought impossible. Remember no film has come within 20m of avatar as yet.
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1
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2
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I would say it’s getting close to locked. I’d 80m seems like the floor right now. So not much of a stretch to 85m.
Remember, A2 is ahead of A1 by 4m and is posting stronger days over its 3rd weekend.
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8 minutes ago, upriser7 said:
does anyone know which movie holds the record for highest 3rd week in Aus ?
Avatar TWOW - 17.6m
Avatar - 16.1m
Star Wars TFA - 14m
Not sure if there is anything in between but
Top Gun Maverick - 12.8m
Spiderman NWH - 9.6m
There just isn't anything else that grossed high enough to figure in the 3rd week highest grosses.
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1
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2
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28 minutes ago, lab276 said:
Slight error in the table @JJ-8 NWH was at 61.9m after third weekdays not 58.3m!
fixed - my bad, somehow had done a copy paste of the total after the weekend and missed it!
-
and for shits and giggles here is a comparison against Rogue One
Given Rogue Ones total is already in the rear view mirror for Avatar TWOW.
Movie
Avatar
Avatar: The Way of Water
Rogue One
Released
17/12/2009
16/12/2022
16/12/2019
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$14,757,697
$14,757,697
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
1,281
11,509
932
15834
Opening Day
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$7,160,885
$30,762,664
$4,500,620
$24,870,204
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,027,219
$40,789,883
W/E % Drop
-26.9%
-51.4%
-70%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$10,629,969
$51,424,196
$5,886,394
$37,554,564
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
7,
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$2,992,374
$43,776,227
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$1,883,041
$47,136,474
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$1,039,532
$48,982,127
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
$627,089
$50,074,073
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
$348,193
$50,627,326
TOTAL:
$115,623,586
$51,424,196
$51,459,799
Projected
-
Top Films in AUD Comparison
Avatar TWOW continues perform above all it's competitors. Weekend and weekly totals since boxing day have continued to perform above the original Avatar run. Avatar TWOW now leads Avatar by 4m at the same point (end of the 3rd week) which is an increase of 1m since sunday. In more recent comperisons, Avatar TWOW is just shy of the running total of Spiderman NWH after starting some 10m behind after its first weekend (EDIT - thanks lab i had copied the total down before fixed with NWH over 61m). The latest 3rd week, weekdays were nearly double what NWH made. NWH of course went on to make nearly 82m in the same timeframe in 2021/2022. hence i've lifted the basement for Avatar TWOW to 80m now. Lastly, Avatar TWOW is now nearly 10m in front of Top Gun Maverick which had some magnificent legs through the middle of the year. However the weekly and weekend totals for week 3 easily outperfermed maverick. Hence i've made it a wide range - 80m to 110m right now. I think a trajectory around 95m seems good for now but there are lots of indicators that this could go higher and even threaten OG Avatar's total (in AUD)
Movie
Avatar
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Avengers: Endgame
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Released
17/12/2009
17/12/2015
24/04/2019
16/12/2021
26/05/2022
16/12/2022
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
$10,290,526
$10,290,526
$1,346,822
$1,346,822
Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$27,254,820
$27,254,820
$34,116,525
$44,394,082
$26,187,275
$26,187,275
$13,788,797
$15,135,619
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$11,286,747
$38,541,567
$7,781,367
$52,175,449
$10,381,710
$36,568,985
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
941
28,964
1,112
30,680
1,121
23,361
905
15,236
1,281
11,509
Opening Day
9,425,000
10,290,526
9,000,000 EST
2,500,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
9,425,000 (Thursday)
10,290,526 (Wednesday)
9,000,000 EST (Thursday)
5,000,000 EST (Saturday)
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$11,800,884
$50,342,451
$13,597,138
$65,772,587
$7,162,435
$43,731,420
$12,988,636
$32,732,084
$7,160,885
$30,762,664
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,604,824
$60,947,275
$3,094,595
$68,867,182
$8,467,709
$52,199,129
$3,910,391
$36,643,195
$10,027,219
$40,789,883
W/E % Drop
-26.9%
-56.7%
-60.1%
-72.6%
-5.8%
-51.4%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$9,001,962
$69,949,237
$5,450,085
$74,317,267
$6,084,365
$58,286,056
$8,856,601
$45,499,796
$10,629,969
$51,424,196
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
$5,017,486
$74,966,723
$1,278,696
$75,595,963
$3,614,236
$61,900,292
$3,967,915
$49,499,796
$7,012,650
$58,436,846
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$4,917,825
$79,884,548
$3,071,304
$78,667,267
$4,014,704
$65,914,996
$6,937,497
$56,405,208
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
$2,249,767
$82,134,315
$644,464
$79,311,731
$1,668,631
$67,583,627
$2,424,242
$58,829,450
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$2,988,963
$85,123,278
$1,519,720
$80,831,451
$2,711,317
$70,294,944
$5,349,050
$64,178,500
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$1,826,202
$88,275,958
$790,477
$82,022,485
$2,152,017
$73,763,056
$5,777,726
$72,966,168
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
$1,290,271
$90,638,978
$499,225
$82,753,423
$1,663,407
$76,660,960
$2,762,622
$78,029,960
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
$754,425
$91,783,059
$256,402
$83,232,204
$1,055,022
$78,228,024
$2,189,240
$81,288,912
TOTAL:
$115,623,586
$94,034,011
$84,258,444
$81,750,000
$93,070,000
$58,436,846
Projected
80m-110m
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6
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ok so i've done some analysis of by comparing against Rogue One.
Rogue 1 has already dropped off the pace.
Rogue One
WE 1 - 14.8m / 14.8m
WE 2 - 4.5m (-69.5%) / 24.9m
WE 3 - 5.9m (+30.8%) / 37.6m
TOTAL = 51.5m
Now in comparison Avatar TWOW
WE 1 - 14.7m / 16.6m
WE 2 - 7.2m / 30.8m
WE 3 - 10.6m / 51.4m
Reason for comparing here is because Rogue One was the last big film to open with Christmas and NYD both falling on the exact same time as Avatar TWOW's run. (Xmas = 11th Day of run in both cases)
For some simple comparisons, I used Rogue One's run as a comparison :
starting with a 10m 3rd weekend.
- using Rogue Ones weekend drops -> Avatar TWOW reaches 76m
- Taking into account Avatar continues to outperform Rogue One drops / increases by approx 15% (which is what it has done each of the first 2 weeks (excluding week 1).) I reach around 95m - 100m.
This weekend will be telling against rogue One, Rogue dropped 49% on it's 4th weekend. a drop sub 40% puts Avatar TWOW on track for a total > 90m and possibly higher.
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1
-
-
apologies everyone, i misread - the numbers i posted before were totals (full week including boxing day) not weekend numbers.
Looks like Avatar TWOW did manage a 10m 3rd weekend
all in AUD
1 (1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 10.6m (+48%) / 51.4m
2 (-) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - 2.2m / 5.1m
3 (-) Lyl, Lyle Crocodile - 1.6m / 3.7m
4 (-) Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody - 1.2m / 2.2m
5 (-) The Banshees of Inisherin - 659k / 1.6m
6 (-) A Man Called Otto - 479k / 479k
7 (3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 238k (-7%) / 29.1m
8 (-) The Lost King - 215k / 571k
9 (-) Triangle of Sadness - 203k / 617k
10 (-) Blueback - 171k / 288k
Updated from the Numbers.
Interesting that only 2 films survived from last weekend (A2 & BP2)
After posting one the weakest 2nd weekends among the top 5 films of all time in Australia, Avatar The Way of Water appears to have posted the biggest 3rd weekend ever! (first film to top 10m on it's third weekend). A2 is now 3m in front of Avatar at the same point its run with a stronger 3rd weekend by 1m. only time will tell whether Avatar TWOT can hold the same trajectory as Avatar. at this point, 70m is a lock, and i'm beginning to feel like 80m is a lock with this 3rd weekend. the 4th weekend will give us a clue to whether 100m is on the cards here in australia for only the 2nd time ever!
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5
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5
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Only seen the openers so far
puss in boots - 5.1m
lyle Lyle croc - 3.7m
Whitney Houston - 2.2m
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2
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sorry it's a bit big - might cut out a few but thought i'd include all the films that have made that high ...... it will be interesting whether the weekend will see bump like avatar did (then all bets are off where it lands) or a small fall in line with Star Wars / Spiderman which probably means Avatar will land closer 75m.
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Movie
Avatar
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Avengers: Endgame
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Released
17/12/2009
17/12/2015
24/04/2019
16/12/2021
26/05/2022
16/12/2022
Week 0
$931,125
$931,125
$10,290,526
$10,290,526
$1,346,822
$1,346,822
$1,846,652 $1,846,652 Week 1 (OW)
$11,962,308
$12,895,497
$27,254,820
$27,254,820
$34,116,525
$44,394,082
$26,187,275
$26,187,275
$13,788,797
$15,135,619
$14,743,196
$16,589,748
$7,349,693
$20,245,190
$11,286,747
$38,541,567
$7,781,367
$52,175,449
$10,381,710
$36,568,985
$4,608,549
$19,744,168
$7,012,032
$23,601,780
W/E Screens/Ave
588
20,344
941
28,964
1,112
30,680
1,121
23,361
905
15,236
1,281
11,509
Opening Day
9,425,000
10,290,526
9,000,000 EST
2,500,000 EST
3,000,000 EST
Single Day
9,425,000 (Thursday)
10,290,526 (Wednesday)
9,000,000 EST (Thursday)
5,000,000 EST (Saturday)
4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2
$8,749,099
$28,994,289
$11,800,884
$50,342,451
$13,597,138
$65,772,587
$7,162,435
$43,731,420
$12,988,636
$32,732,084
$7,160,885
$30,762,665
$9,772,863
$38,767,152
$10,604,824
$60,947,275
$3,094,595
$68,867,182
$8,467,709
$52,199,129
$3,910,391
$36,643,195
$10,027,219
$40,789,884
W/E % Drop
-26.9%
-56.7%
-60.1%
-72.6%
-5.8%
-51.4%
Week 3
$9,659,700
$48,426,852
$9,001,962
$69,949,237
$5,450,085
$74,317,267
$6,084,365
$58,286,056
$8,856,601
$45,499,796
$6,475,778
$54,902,630
$5,017,486
$74,966,723
$1,278,696
$75,595,963
$3,614,236
$58,286,056
$3,967,915
$49,499,796
Week 4
$8,338,365
$63,240,995
$4,917,825
$79,884,548
$3,071,304
$78,667,267
$4,014,704
$65,914,996
$6,937,497
$56,405,208
$5,032,850
$68,273,845
$2,249,767
$82,134,315
$644,464
$79,311,731
$1,668,631
$67,583,627
$2,424,242
$58,829,450
Week 5
$7,002,454
$75,276,299
$2,988,963
$85,123,278
$1,519,720
$80,831,451
$2,711,317
$70,294,944
$5,349,050
$64,178,500
Week 6
$5,604,268
$84,804,886
$1,826,202
$88,275,958
$790,477
$82,022,485
$2,152,017
$73,763,056
$5,777,726
$72,966,168
Week 7
$4,548,004
$92,706,581
$1,290,271
$90,638,978
$499,225
$82,753,423
$1,663,407
$76,660,960
$2,762,622
$78,029,960
Week 8
$3,936,622
$98,374,262
$754,425
$91,783,059
$256,402
$83,232,204
$1,055,022
$78,228,024
$2,189,240
$81,288,912
TOTAL:
$115,623,586
$94,034,011
$84,258,444
$81,750,000
$93,070,000
75m-95m
Projected
-
5
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GO WITH NO 15. Will Cassie Lang will Not Be Nearly as Cute Or Awesome Cause Now She's A Teenager? 5000
Australian Box Office | ....
in International Box Office
Posted
The hunger games is having a nice run here.... 14m+ already.... with Christmas coming... 20m looks well within reach.