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JJ-8

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Everything posted by JJ-8

  1. JJ-8
    Just did a high level comparison to a year ago and we are running a still low but better than most approx 65% down. Next week will be for obvious reasons miles off thanks to TROS large opening (yes it’s actually been a year since TROS landed - feels so long ago now. . But it will be interesting how Boxing Day performs. We will actually have a few blockbusters in the market and the market is fully open though still with restrictions in place in parts of the country. Oh and as we don’t have HBO max here, WW is in cinemas only.
  2. JJ-8
    I think cinemas will be about providing an experience that people can’t replicate at home.
  3. JJ-8
    I really believe that current business model is dead for studios /theatres. it’s going take some pain but a new business model is coming which will hopefully keep cinemas in business in some form. I believe there is a place for cinemas in this structure but how that looks and how much pain those businesses go through I just don’t know.
  4. JJ-8
    I believe this will come down to licensing.... Here in australia there no plans to release HBO Max here as far as I know. Currently the "home of HBO" in Australia remains with Foxtel which i very much doubt they will willingly give up without a fight. Which is the whole issue here. WB will continue to release to cinemas exclusively like normal here in australia. As it stands much of WB licensing sits with Foxtel i think. EDIT - Warners did a deal with Foxtel about 6 months back. All HBO Max new content will premire through Foxtel and their streaming service Binge. I highly doubt this includes the movies coming to HBO Max though. Ultimately this means HBO Max isnt' coming as a seperate streaming service to australia however it is included with foxtel and i assume binge.
  5. JJ-8
    This solidifies my position. I still believe theatres will continue to exist but more niche. just finished watched the video below which nails it. In their current firm /business model movie theatres are dead. They will survive but I do think the big chains are in real trouble now. Worth a watch ...
  6. JJ-8
    just took a quick look at tickets selling at chermside (pretty close to QLD's biggest site) and War with Grandpa (new film this weekend), is selling between > 40% of tickets for each showing (Gold Class were showing probably around 70% or more sold. howevewr as I said this is in QLD - i looked at George St in Sydney and tickets sold were like around 20% at best. Does anyone have the list of the biggest selling cinemas in Auistralia at the moment ? Be interesting to see th ebreakdown at the moment. I feel like given QLD has fully reopened now (cinemas are allowed to sit 100% as I as I understand the rules here) Sydney i think still sits @ 50% while i'm pretty sure victoria is still less than that allowed and SA is still closed last i checked.
  7. JJ-8
    I'm not convinced this is the death of Cinemas just yet. Do I think the business model will need to be tweaked over the next year as come out of the COVID world. Absolutely. I'm actually thinking we may see a situation where studios will own cinemas themselves and remove the middle man so to speak. I know many of you have been against this, but i'm beginning to doubt the current cinema chains will die out in some form (maybe someone will survive but i beginning to think something will give) As for the independants - it will be a mixed bag for the current survivors, however i do feel like they will continue to be around as long as there is product to sell. Cinemas are not dead, maybe the business model is however, but will go through a few changes. Will be interesting what Disney, Paramount, Universal and Lionsgate, do in the face of this move by AT&T - do they follow in a similar pattern or chase something different (ALA Universal). Interesting times ahead but i'm still a believer once we have a Vaccine there is a business there for theatres.
  8. JJ-8
    well mine is in....
  9. JJ-8
    Well tenet is certainly getting a second breath thanks to Victoria. Still sad to see the numbers so low but it could be a lot worse. Like others I am looking at going back to cinemas too. Hopefully the recent changes here (borders reopening and lack of cases) will bring confidence back and people in cinemas)
  10. JJ-8
    Another note - also, Victorian cinemas were limited to 20 seats per cinema still and we got those numbers... As of today that limit is increased to 150 max now pending other factors such as actual capacity etc. but we could well see Tenet either flat in or even increase in Victoria and i'm hearing that IMAX in victoria is sold out for weeks at the moment.
  11. JJ-8
    I didn't know that. Tenet is showing on 1 of only 13 cinemas that can show the film on IMAX 1570mm. Nolan recording a special intro for all those who see the film on 1570mm film in Victoria which apparently was what the film was recorded on and how Nolan intended it. see the link to Inside Film below. https://www.if.com.au/christopher-nolans-message-to-victorian-cinemagoers/
  12. JJ-8
    If Tenet sees the kind of legs its seen elsewhere in australia i think 15m is very much on the cards. For reference 2 weeks ago, the remainder of the country did around 125k over a weekend without victoria. I would argue, last weekends result acted like an opening weekend in victoria and i'd say looking at numbers did just under 500k (say 490k ?) in victoria on it's own, probably meaning victoria did around 430k - 440k over the weekend just gone. and we ar enow effectively up to 13.5m Lets be nice and give the remainder of the country about 300k (outside of Victoria). Looking at the numbers so far since victoria opened i have a total of just over 1m within victoria whith a weekend just gone of 430k. Tough to predict but from here assuming a 20% drops here on out for the next 3 weeks (pre-Christmas) which gives an additional total of around 1.2m - 1.3m. so i have 13.5 + 0.3m + 1.2m = 15m. Yeah looking at this 15m looks on the cards here... i think we land around 15.2m - 15.4m from here.
  13. JJ-8
    Weekly bo from last week while we wait on weekend results. tenet back on top. 12.96m total
  14. JJ-8
    so at the same time Victoria starts to reopen, South Australia has closed (not the same size markets though). mind you it appears that the Adelaide response was now due to a person lieing to the contact tracers Apparently, the person told the tracers he visited a pizza bar and bought a pizza which was the only link they couuld find (and he was a +ve case) so authorities became concerned they were facing a new strain which was extremely contagious - reaction was to a lock everyone in their owns pretty much for 6 days. It's since come out that the person actually was working there. meaning there was more time to catch it. lock down cancelled
  15. JJ-8
    Yeah I’m not surprised. expecting the films in Jan to start vacating release dates soon. This amongst them.
  16. JJ-8
    we were oh so optimistic back then.... normally by now we'd be back in the winter game (let alone have played a summer game)...... reconvene in March 2021 as to whether a summer game will proceed - that's if anyone will be interested in playing this by then ? *jokes*
  17. JJ-8
    oh and weekly update - Rams over 1m opening week - not a bad start at all especially since we still have 20 - 30% of the market closed.
  18. JJ-8
    Whelp, looks like victoria will finally be reopening Cinemas among many other things soon. Good news finally for victorians that things are returning to normal and can only be a positive for Australia as a whole which for now appears to have the virus fully under control (as we now head into our summer). Will be interesting whether we some a small uptick in business for films which have been out for some weeks (Tenet for example ?) i guess it could be a slow process but given there really isn't a lot of films out there at the moment they should be able to make some additional returns so competition shouldn't all that high at the moment. About half way down the article: https://7news.com.au/news/vic/daniel-andrews-reveals-what-restrictions-will-be-eased-on-november-22-c-1540683
  19. JJ-8
    The Rock is filming a TV show in brisbane.
  20. JJ-8
    The fact tenet is 8th in Australia but only 14th for a film that would have expected to perform better in the US normally speaks volumes about the state of each market. (I'm sure there are lots of comparisons but US is the easiest) Tenet compared Au 11.91m normally equates to around 120m in the US. US total isn't up to 60m. For reference Bad Boys for life 19.6m in AU Vs 204m in the US - Very close to the 10% rule. Probably totals that Tenet would have to aspired too in both. The trouble for AUS going forward is the lack of big blockbuster releases. I lots of small and a handful of middle suzes releases. No blockbusters though. Maybe monster hunter, free guy, the witches in December. But the next releases aren't till Dec 26 and doubt remains whether they hold that date - Peter Rabbit 2, the croods 2, wonder woman 1984. (The first 2 here may hold their dates but I doubt ww stays)
  21. JJ-8
    Good result by the Aussie film Rams - it's fast looking like it might take Australian Film to overperform to save cinemas here. Honest thief is have a tidy little run too. 1.4m and counting. Rams is just behind so far with a little over 1.2m to date. The Craft sequel failed to ignite much interest. Trolls has racked a nice little total of over 7m which isn't horrible given the market conditions (still missing 20% of the market - victoria) Rams should hold onto the top spot for next week also... not seeing a lot of releases as yet.
  22. JJ-8
    It’s going to be a long few months for theatres here if we don’t see an uptick soon. Hopefully honest thief can improve things. < 300k for top film isn’t good. Especially if there isn’t an end in sight.
  23. JJ-8
  24. JJ-8
    Being realistic I’m thinking we may never an opener above 200m again. It’s a big call but if we keep going down the path we are on we are losing a few theatres. Less theatres means less money. It all depends what survives either by buyout or luck to the other side now.
  25. JJ-8
    You feel like it would be a different narrative rn if Tenet had been able to perform at a similar level in the USA. Sadly it hasn’t... really not sure how theatres here will survive if cinemas are starved of major Hollywood releases for a long period.
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