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JJ-8

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Everything posted by JJ-8

  1. JJ-8
    not bad considering we still don’t have VIC open and limitations on tickets. Tenet up to nearly 10m here (like making 100m normally in the US. still probably running less than half or even a third of what it could make here. But a reasonable result in that context. Trolls closing on 3m so far. Having a neat little run. Prob stay as top 2 (trolls/tenet) until honest thief opens on the 22nd (assuming it holds there). Also are MGM trying troll us here. No Time to die release date in Australia.... April 1st, 2021 🤔🤦‍♂️ Edit - 1 week old data 😂. No weekend results till tomorrow (long weekend everywhere accept Victoria )🤦‍♂️
  2. JJ-8
    So 5.9m (2+2.9)with Sunday to come. Mmmmm so under 7.5-8.5m weekend based on this. Running total very close to 30m.
  3. JJ-8
    I'm not surprised on this. It doesn't stop the box office discussion but does dampen the weekend numbers till sunday but these are unsual times. I don't doubt if Tenet was better than expected that WB would have been more forthcoming....... As for sony Until November the only other film i can see they are releasing is "Connected" (Animated film). So they are probably only playing the game here because of WB doing it with Tenet. The obvious red flag already is WB delaying WW also meaning they feel the market isn't ready (I release they are probably trying to spin it as Tenet needs more room to breath, but the reality is, opening WW in this environment is suicide for a film of this size. I'm starting to agree with most on here that releasing a major tentpole before end of the year is unrealistic if you want to actually recoup your losses. I think the most sound approach is to use small and mid tier releases so you can limit your losses and slowly bring the BO up to a level that will allow those bigger releases to work again (to be realistic, i think we have a long long time ahead of us before we even see a 30m+ OW. (I could see 20m happening in this environment if LA / NY reopened. but i feel that is probably the limit.) ^ in regards to the november releases, unless something dramatically changes, I don't see even half of those films staying put - espectially Black Widow, No time to die and Soul. I feel like 1 release every 2 weeks at the moment with probably 1 blockbuster about every 2 months is all that is going to work and even then losses will build.
  4. JJ-8
    ok so previous weekend and weekly updates.... So from the previous week we had a 34% decline from the opening weekend. given that was likely muted slightly from the previews, i'm not seeing this as a great hold in this enviroment - the belief that while the OW was lower due to COVID impacts (no victoria currently, and limitations on capaciity) , while it's broughts the amounts down, i guess the hope here was it the film would hold better and longer - that hold isn't much better than normal for films like this here. Anyway, Bill & Ted Face the music opened on Thursday (and no we don't have the streaming option here) so will be interesting how this all plays out.
  5. JJ-8
    2.5m start is pretty good given this is without Victoria (20-25% of the market) and capacity is limited to 50% in most of the country. in normal times I feel like this would like a 8m ow. It’s all about legs from here...
  6. JJ-8
    Can this year end already.... time to move onto 2021 i think... Terrible news. Wonderful actor. RIP - gone way too soon. It's going to make BP2 quite hard to make - as many have said though, given the money on the table here, I cant imagine it won't happen - probably will be delayed though and may require a rethink of the the phase 4 / 5 strategy for Marvel too as I am pretty sure he was supposed to a bigger part in the avengers crossovers too.
  7. JJ-8
    My first interest in the box office occurred around the lord of the rings fellowship of the ring. I lurked at first but eventually joined BOM. when that was shutdown I joined the migration to here. I did look at a few other but BOT is where I stayed. been some epic box office runs in my time but the one that sticks the most is tracking avatar both in the US but especially in Australia where it not only shattered titanic’s top spot but Came very close to passing it in adjusted numbers. No film has come close since to avatar. Only Star Wars 7 got close (still 15m short).
  8. JJ-8
    The big test will be in 2 weeks when tenet opens. Remember this is all happening without Victoria right now. Hoping NSW can avoid the same fate as VIC. appears QLD is avoiding for now 🤞
  9. JJ-8
    Not bad- unhinged down 20% from last week. Probably shows the real impacts. Movies will play for longer than that Initial big opening. peninsula looks like it’s DOA here. Looks low even for the current market.
  10. JJ-8
    Thanks to MPDAA for these numbers. Weekend This Week Week Ending 12-Aug-20 # Film Title Distributor Box Office 1 UNHINGED STUDIOCANAL 882,103 2 THE SECRET: DARE TO DREAM ROADSHOW 333,936 3 THE KING OF STATEN ISLAND UNIVERSAL 144,711 4 RED SHOES AND THE SEVEN DWARFS RIALTO 94,937 5 TRAIN TO BUSAN 2 - PENINSULA MAGNUM FILMS 90,187 6 SONIC THE HEDGEHOG PARAMOUNT 71,459 7 23 WALKS RIALTO 62,351 8 THE BURNT ORANGE HERESY SONY PICTURES 62,108 9 FOLLOW ME STUDIOCANAL 60,791 10 WE'LL END UP TOGETHER PALACE 56,245
  11. JJ-8
    Well that’s a little better. Unhinged made 1m over its first week. Still not at pre COVID levels by any means but an improvement. ive also updated my post above. Tenet is dated and Mulan gone to PVOD on Disney+
  12. JJ-8
    Ok just reviewing our upcoming release calendar australian release dates [im not listing all rereleases just inception which seems a key date linked to tenets release] Mulan is going PVOD on Disney+ On 3rd September. [released] unhinged, king of states island, David Copperfield. [13/8/2020] Peninsula [20/8/2020] inception (rerelease) [27/8/2020] Tenet [3/9/2020] The New Mutants [10/9/2020] Bill and Ted Face the Music Honest Thief Paw Patrol Jet to the Rescue [17/9/2020] Astro Kid The Kings Man The Secret Garden Trolls World Tour [1/10/2020] Wonder Woman 1984 [15/10/2020] Candyman [29/10/2020] Black Widow [12/11/2020] No Time to Die that will do for now. For those that don’t know most of the country has 2 weeks of school holidays from mid September to mid October (depending on the state) At this stage all states accept Victoria are open for business. Social distancing applies in all states. appears like tenet will release on the 27/8 with very few movies dated there. I’m wondering if the studio is now holding back due to Victoria. (we don’t really have a big PVOD market here) also very few dates beyond 17/9 here. Sitting on the fence much?
  13. JJ-8
    I think after what’s been announced today (stage 4 lockdown) in Melbourne I can’t see cinemas reopening till 2021 there. i mean 6 weeks at stage 4 with pretty much everything closed excluding essential services. That’s mid to late September before a return to stage 3. Cinemas are going to be long time coming in Victoria I think.
  14. JJ-8
    Yeah. Apparrently they deliberately falsified Info At the airport. Flew melb to syd to Brisbane. have not followed any precautions even when sick and even post test continued to socialize. Total idiots. sister now has it too. So 3 cases!
  15. JJ-8
    Looking at the latest figures coming out of Victoria (459 Cases / 10 Deaths announced today), I can't see them reopening cinemas (or much at all) for quite some time. In fact I understand there is discussions of additional lockdowns to try and stop the spread.
  16. JJ-8
    Bill & Ted 3 says hi with it's day and date limited release / PVOD on 1st September.
  17. JJ-8
    Trouble is that's still enough to be in the mix. Actually also wondering if sonic had a school holiday boost on its last week but this week we will see an epic drop off.... 🤷‍♂️😬
  18. JJ-8
    I'm going to be interested to see how the King of Straten Island Performs this weekend (it opened on thursday). Also we are only 12 days away from unhinged opening. will it hold or will be delayed again - you've gotta think if Tenet and others move that Unhinged won't hold its date either in the US... what will that mean for Australia ?
  19. JJ-8
    As DeeCee said, it's a real mixed bag in Australia with cinemas open in all places excluding Victoria. Yeah there was actual excitement today that Victoria only hit 220 cases today... which was a step down from yesterday. as a current update, our total active cases in Australia are 3,161. Victoria makes up over 2600 cases of that total and NSW is over 500 active. WA is next highest at a mere 26 cases while the other states are 6 cases or less. not surprisingly victoria remains on shutdown while NSW has hotspot suburbs which are almost on lockdown. All other states are just putting people in quarentine. QLD border remains closed to anyone who's been in victoria or comes from a NSW hotspot.
  20. JJ-8
    Between 1 state in shutdown, lack of new product, half price tickets I can't a see big weekend incoming. (Doubting we will get near the limit of sales at the moment.)
  21. JJ-8
    It's a tough one for sure... but realistically cinemas in QLD are reopening with David Copperfield and Sonic as their headline releases (ie. on the biggest screens and most screens). and there isn't going to much additional releases until 31 July now (assuming unhinged moves in AUS in line with the US change) - going to be a tough sell when u can buy sonic for $21 at the moment on blueray - especially if that's gotta sell for the next 4 weeks.
  22. JJ-8
    Yeah would think so... but you move all those out.. what does that do the release calendar - cinemas in NZ and AUS can't survive without the bigger releases long term.
  23. JJ-8
    Looking @ Event's Coming soon list, i think either the location distributors haven't bothered to advise (some changes only just happened i guess) or we are getting the films earlier that the US Current list of Coming Soon Films (according to Event QLD) I've bolded the films which i know have moved the US Release Date. 02 July The Personal History of David Copperfield 02 July Love Sarah 09 July Waves 09 July Escape From Pretoria 12 July Never Too Late 16 July The Broken Hearts Gallery 16 July The King of Staten Island 16 July Unhinged 23 July Babyteeth 23 July Mulan 23 July The Burnt Orange Heresy 30 July Tenet 30 July The High Note 06 August Empty Man 13 August Bill and Ted Face the Music 13 August Wonder Woman 1984 <that will do for now>
  24. JJ-8
    I think you are right. Same goes for Strathpine.
  25. JJ-8
    By the looks, most locations outside of Victoria are reopening by the 2nd July. not a lot of info for when village cinemas open there. (Village are already open in locations outside of Vic) edit - reading cinemas are open everywhere. Hoyts not open anywhere yet. Very hit and miss
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