townzy89

judging by its result in Australia (Record OD, Second day looking to also break the old OD record) I'm guessing 65 + 80 (145) 102 77 324m OW

Wrong.. I have seen AIW twice. Probably won't see it again in Cinemas Seeing DP2 opening day, if it wasn't coming out it would have had no bearing on me seeing AIW a third time or not

Summer. The BO expands to accommodate, hence why majority of films release in Summer. They have only just caught on you can actually make decent cash outside of summer as well. AIW will be 600m+ by the time DP2 opens anyway

Nope just highlighting using say AOU multi as a reference for AIW is as pointless as those stats, thanks for acknowledging.

Ok, I am in Aus so maybe it was different WOM here due to the cultural differences BP will almost get 3.5x so why is 3x not possible to AIW? The WOM is still very positive.

I said I feel it has... therefor IMO Panther may have been received slightly better, but it didn't have people raving "you have to see it to believe it" type of WOM. Panther was, "yeah it was really good, it is worth watching" RT User Rating AIW 93% BP 79% Guess we can all point to stats that favour our opinion...

Just it missing 600m talk. 2.34x multi is falling off a cliff to me I think 3x multi should be the over under. Missing BP ~700m would be a massive disappointment. It opened larger and I feel has better WOM

It is horrendous analysis to just say 800m is impossible because of Avengers 1 multi. This movie has exceeded all expectations for Sat and Sun and I even think Fri given SW7 had the marathon dollars rolled into it. To suddenly predict this to fall of a cliff is going against the trend = poor analysis. To even question sub 600m is ludicrous. Opening 60m higher than BP and make 100m less... Wut? This has unanimous "You have to see this" wom. 360m by Friday from then on 120m/360 type of run with potential to do better 720 - 800m

Everyone debating if AIW can make it to 700m. Watch it smash 800m

yeah it is

I noticed how you ignored my post on population change. GWIW sold ~160m tickets in 1939 when USA population was 131m According to your simplified logic all movies now should be selling 400m tickets. Its a different market you can only compare the BO +- 10 to 15 years max accurately due to changing conditions, don't be a fool. We will be lucky to be seeing $2b Box office or 100m tickets sold in 2040 with a population of 500m

Guys, according to this logic SW is going to cause Disney to go bankrupt because it is only maintaining sales.

Americas Population in 1980 - 226m Americas Population in 2014 - 318m Change = 40% Meanwhile the average age has increased by 5 years You really think an older population which visits the cinema less frequent, during the technology age where downloading is rampant among many other economical factors contributes less than 40% against ticket sales? if population increase was such a determining factor why havent films been doing $1b+ domestic for 15 years now?

Lol. You have no idea

On track for 150m OW in China

What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little? Whereas in Australia Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW

Star Wars needs to do 153% of JW to take $1b Domestic, as can be seen it has dropped $70m behind but will start clawing that figure back. JW Original JW = $1,000,000,000 SW VII Difference $ 81,953,950.00 $ 125,644,091.36 $ 119,119,282.00 -$ 6,524,809.36 $ 69,644,830.00 $ 106,772,905.80 $ 68,294,204.00 -$ 45,003,511.16 $ 57,207,490.00 $ 87,705,145.39 $ 60,553,189.00 -$ 72,155,467.55 $ 25,344,820.00 $ 38,856,295.27 $ 40,109,742.00 -$ 70,902,020.82 $ 24,342,515.00 $ 37,319,655.47 $ 37,361,729.00 -$ 70,859,947.30

What i am most upset about is if it made a touch mor on Saturaday it would have all time Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday Grosses.

I agree with both above, personally i think Ep VIII could push $2b, well that's what I feel for VII so will see how that pans out. I probably highballed TS4 being a Pixar fan but that will be picked up by the low GOTG 2 figure (I also agree with $1b) main point is, unless one of these movies is delayed or something drastic goes wrong $5.5b should be piece of cake for these 6 movies.

What about Disney in 2017? Episode 8 - $1.5b TS4 - $1.25b POTC 5 - $1b GOTG 2 - $750m Untitled Pixar - $750m Thor 3 - $750m Thats a possible $6b there

Yeah ok good point. And I don't mean to be disrespectfull to,the dead. It is terrible and the scene that I think it happened in (the stock.exchanhe right) I glanced to the exit door. But im just mad that people are not watching this amazing movie.All I can hope is eventually everyone will go see it and it's legs will be stellar.

Holy shit what if wrong with Americans? Get over the tradegy go to the cinema. If people act like this then why do you guys a still travel by air or leave your homes if your so afraid.In Australia at my second showing at the start of the movie someone stood up and yelled lock the exits, the only place that should have been affected was that town to think people on the.other side of the country are scared is laughable

Fuck me, get over it.

1) Will The Dark Knight break the opening day record? 5000 YES 2) Will TDKR make at least 100.05 million OD? 3000 NO 3) Will TDKR make less than 74.087 mill OD? 3000 NO 4) Will TDKR make more than 12 mill OW in Australia? 2000 YES 5) Will TDKR make more than 5 mill OW in Spain? 2000 6) Will TDKR make more than 25 mill OW in UK? 2000 7) Will TDKR have a Saturday drop of more than 30%? NO 8) Will TDKR make more than 30 mill at midnight? YES 9) Will TDKR make more than 15.95 mill at IMAX domestically? YES 10) Will TDKR have a per theater average of more than $47,698? NO 11) Will TDKR have a cinemascore of A+? YES 12) Will TDKR make at least 60.05 mill on Sunday? NO 13) Will TDKR make at least 57.5 mill on Sunday? NO 14) Will TDKR drop less than 15% on Sunday? NO 15) Will TDKR make at least 150 mill more than ASM, IA4 and Ted combined? 16) Will TDKR make more than 185 mill OW? 2000 YES 17) Will TDKR make more than 192 mill OW? 2000 YES 18) Will TDKR make more than 208 mill OW? 2000 NO 19) Will TDKR make less than 174.738 mill OW? 2000 NO 20) Will TDKR have a world wide debut of more than 300 mill? YES 21) Will TDKR have a world wide debut or more than 325 mill? NO 22) Will TDKR have a world wide debut of less than 280 mill? NO 23) Will the top 10 films combine to make more than 260 million? YES 24) Will ASM drop less than 55.5%? NO 25) Will ASM have a Friday increase of more than 50%?NO 26) Will ASM have a Saturday increase of more than 25%? YES 27) Will ASM's 6 day (including the BS Canadian Monday previews) be more than TDKR's first two days? NO 28) Will Nikki's first Friday report come out before 1pm PST time (just go to deadline and see when she posts her tentpoles)? YES 29) Will Nikki's first posting about TDKR contain the phrase "NOT A RECORD" anywhere in the post? NO 30) Will Nikki's first "projection" about TDKR be higher than the number reported with official Friday estimates? 3000 NO 31) On the first three days, will BKB post anywhere at anytime about how the film is not meeting expectations from a box office standpoint? YES 32) Will the Weekend Numbers thread (this starts with Thurs midnights and goes until Sunday estimates) reach 300 pages by 9AM on Monday July 23rd? (I'll keep track) YES 33) Will IA4 drop less than 50%? NO 34) Will MM drop less than 45%? NO 35) Will any film in the top 12, besides MM drop less than 45%? YES 36) Will Moonrise Kingdom make more than MAD3? 37) Will The Avengers drop less than 55%? 38) Will Prom, MIB and SWATH all drop more than 58%? 39) Will The Hunger Games fall less than 25%? 40) Will The Intouchables fall less than 15%? 35/40 5000 36/40 8000 37/40 10,000 38/40 12,000 39/40 15,000 40/40 25,000 Bonus 1: What will TDKR's weekend gross be? 5000 Bonus 2: What will IA4's weekend gross be? 5000 Bonus 3: What will ASM's weekend gross be? 5000 Bonus 4: What will TDKR, Avengers and Tyler Perry's combined gross be? 5000 Bonus 5: What finishes in spots: 6 8 10 11 13 2000 each and a bonus of 5000 if all correct Bonus 6: According to the International Report in the International section (first report will be the one we go by), Internationally, what finishes in spots: 3 4 6 2000 each one correct and a bonus of 3000 if all three correct. Good luck! There's about 125,000 points to be made this week. And the TV guy, he's already squealed, so use your pencil tricks and then kill the bus driver! This week is yours for the taking!

SOTM 9: 1) Will TDKR make more than 30 mill at midnight? YES 2) Will TDKR make more than 74 mill OD? YES 3) Will TDKR make more than 81 mill OD? YES 4) Will TDKR make more than DH2 OW? YES 5) Will TDKR make more than 190.5 mill OW? YES