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SoSaysI

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Posts posted by SoSaysI

  1. 2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

    Ticket price inflation since 2009 in a lot of overseas markets goes quite a way to cancelling out the exchange rate differences, so it's not as big of a disadvantage for current films as you might think.

     

    For example, in the UK, TFA grossed $163.6m and sold 17m tickets (average $9.62 tickets) while Avatar grossed $150m and sold 16.5m tickets (average $9.08 tickets). The UK is a slightly exceptional case though, in that ticket price inflation has outstripped the change in exchange rates, resulting in higher ticket prices in dollars (or at least, this was the case in 2015 - the pound has slipped a bit since then). In most other markets, the ticket price increases only partially offset the exchange rates, so Avatar still has higher ticket prices in dollars than current blockbusters.

    But here is the issue, unless you have admissions data how do you account for 3d share and impact on ticket prices?  Avatar had a 3d share we likely won't ever see again so its average ticket price was higher than your average 2009 movie.

  2. Just now, XO21 said:

    Why some are acting like it's a summer blockbuster..mmm hello check the calendar

    People are stupidly comparing it to TFA when the vast majority of schools and people were off since Christmas Eve was Thursday that year.

    • Like 2
  3. 4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

    Is this thing even going to hit $700mil?

    Also i love the school excuse, wasnt there only like 30% of people under 25 who saw the film opening weekend?.

    Lol, for people who follow box office a lot of people on this board sure hate looking at historical comps.  Kids being out of school (and hence people being out of work with their kids) matters a ton.  Look at the Monday drops from 2006 when the dates aligned.  TLJ's drop is completely normal and actually better than Pursuit of Happyness which opened way lower and had tremendous legs (no, TLJ won't have anywhere near those legs). 

    • Like 4
  4. 16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

    57-58% drop...if it makes up Tuesday with discount Tuesday effect, it can stay on RO's path...

    That is actually a better Sunday to Monday drop than Pursuit of Happyness had in 2006.  Obviously this won't have anywhere near the legs that did but its a solid number that doesn't really move the needle one way or the other.

    • Like 1
  5. 9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

    57-58% drop...if it makes up Tuesday with discount Tuesday effect, it can stay on RO's path...

    The calendar works a little differently when Christmas and New Years fall on a Monday like they do this year.  Less schools and people are off work early this week then they were even last year but you will have more people off the week of the 1st.  A lot of the movies in 2006 when the calendar was similar had much smaller drops from this week to the week of the 1st than movies did last year when the calendar was only 1 day off.

    • Like 1
  6. 17 minutes ago, mredman said:

    holy shit SW is a monster. No movie can ever compete against this. I think Avatar will disappoint unless Cameron really comes up with something really new for it. Like almost Virtual reality 3D

    I don't think it will be as big as the first domestically but I think Avatar 2 will clear $2 billion worldwide and even if it doesn't reach the heights of the first there is no way that can be construed as a disappointment. 

  7. Just now, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

    We got a cinemascore yet?

    A Cincemascore.  Great Comscore data.  Most sites the score is high for this movie.  Flixster and Metacritic are being attached by trolls so those are misleading (and there are obviously a number of people, including a number of people from this board that dislike the movie for totally legitimate reasons, but those scores are definitely not indicative of the audience reaction IMO).

    • Like 1
  8. 26 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

    Not opining as to whether true or false, but this divulgence between critic score and audience score could further the conspiracy theory held by some that Disney has some sort of hold ($$) on critics. Are there examples of more stark contrasts between the two scores? 

    There are lots of examples of this type of divergence.  People were posting them early in the thread.  There is no freaking conspiracy theory.  My god people are fucking dumb.

    • Like 5
  9. 9 minutes ago, Noctis said:

    Have you seen it?

     

    Visuals in TLJ far outclass its predecessors it's not even funny. Performances are also great here. Ridley, Driver, Hamill, and Dern were fantastic. Direction is actually very strong, but my biggest problem was with the damn pacing. 

    I agree with this.  Hamill was legitimately incredible in this and I loved the other performances you mentioned.  You also have 3 of the coolest scenes in all of Star Wars IMO.  There was a certain storyline that if you cut 10 minutes off of takes nothing away from the plot but tightens up the movie and that alone fixes most of the pacing issues (I didn't have as much of an issue with pacing as most but there was some fat that could have easily been trimmed).

    • Like 2
  10. Just now, XO21 said:

    So what do fans think? ComScore/Screen Engine reports a mindblowing five-out-of-five stars for the movie and a 90% overall positive with an 82% definite recommend. Forty five percent said that the Rian Johnson-directed movie came in above their expectations while close to 40% said they’ll the movie again in the theater

     

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    The RT score is definitely being brought down by fanboys who really hate the film and I don't think that score is indicative at all of the overall audience reaction at all (based on a number of message boards I read which include all sorts of different people, not just movie buffs, the audience I saw it with where it was mostly applause and people talking about how great it was with one , friends and family who saw it already, etc.) but it is also clear this isn't universally loved either and those that don't like it for the most part really hate it because of one or two main plot points. 

    • Like 2
  11. 1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

     

    They remind me of how awful the internet can be.  

    Don't let it get to you.  The vast majority of people will like this movie because it is an objectively good movie with some absolutely epic scenes but there is no doubt that it will be somewhat divisive among fans.

  12. 1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

    >BvS doing TFA opening weekend numbers

    Definitely not lol

     

    >being one of the biggest hits of all time? 

    I thought it would break $1billion that's for sure, it was a disappointing performance.


    I wouldn't call predicting BvS to do more than $1b stupid at all, we saw The Avengers do incredible when they brought their franchise together. Superman and Batman are the two of the biggest superheroes of all time (only spiderman competes). TDK made over a billion and man of steel was no slouch. I don't think you can call this anywhere near as stupid (or even stupid at all) as predicting TLJ over TFA.

    It easily could have been a different Avatar fanboy, I just remember a big Avatar fan along with excel predicting laughable numbers for BvS including an opening weekend as big as TFA

     

    TLJ was never doing TFA numbers, when a movie hits the cultural zeitgeist the way that movie did a drop is inevitable (see basically every all time huge movie and its sequel, Star Wars, Phantom Menace, Jurassic Park, Avengers, etc.). 

  13. 1 minute ago, Noctis said:

    On Flixster? For a movie? Repeatedly? 

    Star Wars fans are really really hardcore.  I could definitely see people upset about the movie trying to torpedo it.  Hell, look at some of the crazies on twitter.  I do think among big fans of this series some of the choices will be at least somewhat divisive for sure, but other than one guy who left after a certain scene my audience really enjoyed it even with people definitely being a bit torn on certain elements.

    • Like 2
  14. 14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

    I know people who predicted more than TFA or >$1.8b world wide.

    So? People make dumb predictions all the time.  I may be confusing you with another uber-Avatar fan who is also a big Superman fan but weren't you on board with BvS doing TFA opening weekend numbers and being one of the biggest hits of all time? 

    • Like 1
  15. 16 minutes ago, narniadis said:

    All I can think about is that there is a distinct lack of articles about the presales this time around. Obviously it was never going to get close to TFA, but surely there would be something to crow about if it was going to score over 40m.

     

    35m is a reasonable guesstimate based on sales and info we already have. And that in and of itself is staggering, particularly when you consider the time of year.

    Rogue One did $29M last year and this seems to be incredibly far ahead of Rogue One in sales.

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