TylerDurden365

Reserved

Reserved

Best Picture: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Manchester by the Sea 4- Hidden Figures 5- Lion 6- Arrival 7- Fences 8- Hacksaw Ridge 9- Hell or High Water Best Director: 1- Damian Chazelle for La La Land 2- Berry Jenkins for Moonlight 3- Kenneth Lonegran for Manchester by the Sea 4- Denis Villenevue for Arrival 5- Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge Best Actor: 1- Denzel Washington for Fences 2- Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea 3- Ryan Gosling for La La Land 4- Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge 5- Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic Best Actress: 1- Emma Stone for La La Land 2- Isabelle Huppert for Elle 3- Natalie Portman for Jackie 4- Ruth Negga for Loving 5- Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins Best Supporting Actor: 1- Mahershala Ali for Moonlight 2- Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals 3- Dev Patel for Lion 4- Jeff Bridges for Hell Or High Water 5- Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea Best Supporting Actress: 1- Viola Davis for Fences 2- Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea 3- Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures 4- Namoie Harris for Moonlight 5- Nicole Kidman for Lion Best Original Screenplay: 1- La La Land 2- Manchester by the Sea 3- Hell or High Water 4- 20th Century Women 5- The Lobster Best Adapted Screenplay: 1- Moonlight 2- Hidden Figures 3- Fences 4- Arrival 5- Lion Best Film Editing: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Arrival 4- Hacksaw Ridge 5- Hell or High Water Best Cinematography: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Arrival 4- Silence 5- Lion Best Production Design: 1- La La Land 2- Arrival 3- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 4- Hail, Caesar! 5- Passengers Best Costumes: 1- Jackie 2- La La Land 3- Allied 4- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5- Florence Foster Jenkins Best Makeup: 1- Star Trek Beyond 2- Suicide Squad 3- A Man Called Ove Best Visual Effects: 1- The Jungle Book 2- Doctor Strange 3- Kubo and the Two Strings 4- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5- Deepwater Horizon Best Sound: 1- La La Land 2- Hacksaw Ridge 3- Arrival 4- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5- 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Best Sound Editing: 1- La La Land 2- Hacksaw Ridge 3- Arrival 4- Deepwater Horizon 5- Sully Best Score: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Jackie 4- Lion 5- Passengers Best Song: 1- "City of Stars" from La La Land 2- "How Far I'll Go" from Moana 3- "Audition" from La La Land 4- "Can't Stop the Feeling!" from Trolls 5- "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story Best Animated Feature: 1- Zootopia 2- Kubo and the Two Strings 3- Moana 4- My Life as a Zucchini 5- The Red Turtle Best Foreign Language film: 1- The Salesman 2- Toni Erdmann 3- A Man Called Ove 4- Land of Mine 5- Tanna Best Documentary Feature: 1- O.J.: Made in America 2- 13th 3- I am Not Your Negro 4- Fire at Sea 5- Life, Animated Best Documentary Short: 1- Joe's Violin 2- Extremis 3- The White Helmet 4- Watani: My Homeland 5- 4.1 Miles Best Animated Short: 1- Piper 2- Blind Vaysha 3- Borrowed Time 4- Pear Cider and Cigarettes 5- Pearl Best Live Action Short: 1- Ennemis Inteieurs 2- Timecode 3- La Femme et le TGV 4- Silent Nights 5- Sing

Not 100% on this, but I know that Regal was doing a Film Festival of the Best Picture noms but they weren't showing all the movies on all the days. So those may have been the days they were showing Hacksaw and the drops were the days it was off the schedule.

I mean, I hate to be the hair splitter, but 50SD is a romance-drama budgeted at 55 million and rated R. That's the definition of mid-budget adult-aimed drama. You can hate the movie and think it's terrible, but that doesn't make it a different TYPE of movie. You can say you want "Good" versions of that type of movie, but I long ago learned not to try and foist my definition of taste as definitive. People dig what they dig, and studios make the movies that make money. This is the version of that type of movie that makes money (based on a pre-existing property, female-skewing [because women like to go to movies too and have stuff that isn't just dudes getting shot in the face]). And hey, if you want a version that might be more your boat, Hidden Figures and La La Land's runs say what up.

I'm with Baumer. 50SD is going to do around 400-450 WW off a 55 production budget. Universal is doing backflips at that profit margin, just like they did when they dropped the first one. Somewhat related note: all those think pieces about how we never get mid-range stuff for adults anymore? We had two dropped this weekend and both are going to be very successful for their studios (50SD and JW2)

Just to throw out an alternate viewpoint on why the number came in at 120: Perhaps people who hadn't done pre-sale tickets were deterred from coming out. They felt that all the shows would be super crowded and they could get out Saturday/Sunday after the opening day crazies had dissipated. I'm going to say it's about 15% bump today from non-preview Friday (which seems like it's become pretty standard for most of these tentpoles), so about 73, maybe 75 if it bumps big with families. And ultimately, this is all just insanity in terms of numbers so let's just enjoy the ride, ya?

Pure speculation but it was likely a combo of: 1) wanting to retire; 2) Disney offering 4 BILLION dollars; 3) Disney wanting to make sure that they had full creative control over where the franchise went in the future.

That number is ridiculous, but it looks like the spillover is helping everything including the holdovers. So everyone wins this weekend.

I don't know, I always figured the rough floor for IO was like 70-75 (in line with the adjusted numbers for Wall-E/Up). I certainly never saw anything below 65 (Brave/Cars 2 level). With the preview numbers, I'd say something between 75-85 is a safe bet, with 90-95 possible (Incredibles kind of success). For the record, though, JW will still probably win the weekend by coming in somewhere between 95-100 depending on the Father's Day hold.

To attempt to move the conversation back to numbers, I'd say the 2.7 for digital previews is good. Interstellar is going to suffer from the fact that, due to its length, it will be hard for theaters to get in a ton of showings. I know that at my local theater last night Big Hero 6 had around 5 or 6 preview screenings while Interstellar only had 4. Still, all around these are good numbers to start with and I'm excited to see a weekend that delivers on its promise for both openers.

1) Will November Man drop more than 35% on Thursday? No 2) Will Above So Below open to more than 15 MILLION? No 3) Will GOTG be number one? Yes 4) Will both GOTG and Turtles increase for the 4 day? Yes 5) Will more than 5 films drop less than 10%? Yes 6) Will Turtles have a Sat increase of more than 58%? Yes 7) Will any film make more than 18 mill for the 4 day? Yes 8) Will any film increase more than 10% on Sunday? Yes 9) Will more than 2 films decrease on Sunday? No 10) Will Turtles fall less than 5% on Monday? No 11) Will Into the Storm finish higher than Lucy? No 12) Will Expendables make more than Sin City? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in slots: 4 As Above, So Below 5 The November Man 8 When the Game Stood Tall 9 The Hundred Foot Journey 11 Sin City 2 12 Lucy 2000 each bonus of 10,000 if all 6 correct No individual bonus this week as I will have enough to calculate. MAKE UP QUESTIONS All questions also pertain to the 3 day unless otherwise specified. The first 6 questions will be worth 1000 points, the last 7 will be worth 2000 1) Will Turtles finish in second? Yes 2) Will GOTG make more for its three day than Turtles does for the 4 day? No 3) Will Above/So Below open to more than 5 mill on Friday? No 4) Will any film fall less than 3% on Thurs? Yes 5) Will November Man make more than 12 million for the 5 day? Yes 6) Will Expendables open to more than 20 million in China? Yes 7) Will Expendables 3 fall less than 35%? No 8) Will If I Stay increase more than 80% on Friday? Yes 9) Will any film increase more than 145% on Friday? Yes 10) Will any film increase more than 60% on Saturday? Yes 11) Will any film increase more than 10% on Sunday? Yes 12) Will Let's Be Cops fall less than 20% for the three day? Yes 13) Will Sin City be in the top 10? No 10/13 3000 11/13 5000 12/13 7000 13/13 10,000 Bonus: What will GOTG gross for the 4 day? 7000 21.586

1) Will any new release make more than 20 mill? No 2) Will GOTG or TMNT finish first? No 3) Will Expendables 3 drop more than 55%? Yes 4) Will Let's Be Cops fall more than 45%? No 5) Will When The Game Stands Tall open to more than 12 million? No 6) Will If I Stay increase more than 11% on Saturday? No 7) Will any film increase more than 8.5% on Thursday? No 8) Will any film increase less than 55% on Friday? No 9) Will any film increase more than 60% on Saturday? Yes 10) Will Expendables 3 open to more than 20 million in China? Yes 11) Will GOTG drop less than 39%? No 12) Will One Hundred Foot Journey make more than Into the Storrm? Yes 13) Will Giver increase more than 65% on Friday? No 14) Will any new release have a preview number of more than 1 million? Yes 12/14 3000 13/14 5000 14/14 8000 What finishes is spots 2 Guardians of the Galaxy 4 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For 5 When the Game Stands Tall 6 Let's Be Cops 7 The Expendables 3 2000 each and 3000 bonus for all five right. Bonus 1: What will GOTG gross on Saturday? 5000 Bonus 2: What will Turtles gross on Saturday? 5000 Bonus 3: What will Expendables gross on Thursday? 5000 Individuals: Those of you who have not had them yet, can choose ONE of the three sets of questions below. Set 1: Will If I Stay open to more than 15 million? Yes Will Lucy fall more than 40%? Yes Will The Giver fall more than 45%? Yes

I guess I don't understand the need for the back and forth on respective quality. I mean, I can identify why I didn't enjoy Turtles and the issues I have with it on a storytelling level. But it's making money because a certain audience has responded to it. On the flip side I could rattle off why I thought GOTG was awesome, but I thought Scott Pilgrim was equally awesome and that made no money so clearly my opinion is not some be-all end-all powerful force that makes things a hit. Let us all just be happy that there are movies doing well at the back end of this summer because otherwise everything has underperformed.

Will GOTG drop less than 7.5% on Labour Day weekend (3 day only)? Abstain Will GOTG pass Transformers before LD weekend? (so counting August 28th numbers) No Will GOTG have a drop of less than 35% in the next two weekends? Abstain Will GOTG have a Thursday drop of less than 7.5% in the next two weeks? Yes Will GOTG have a worldwide gross of more than 450 million by the end of the game (only Sunday estimates will count, so in other words, LD Monday is not part of this equation).? Yes

1) Will Expendables make more than 22 mill? No 2) Will Turtles fall less than 58%? No 3) Will GOTG fall more than 43%? No 4) Will Let's Be Cops make more than 15 mill for the 5 day? Yes 5) Will Giver make more than 18 mill? No 6) Will Expendables make more than 2 mill for previews? No 7) Will any film increase more than 75% on Friday? Yes 8) Will Turtles be number one? Yes 9) Will Giver make more than Expendables? No 10) Will Let's Be Cops drop more than 37% on Thursday? Yes 11) Will any film increase more than 55% on Saturday? Yes 12) Will Into the Storm fall more than 60%? No 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 5 The Giver 6 Into the Storm 8 Lucy 10 Hercules 11 Boyhood 2000 each 3000 bonus for all correct. Bonus 1: What will the total weekend gross be of TMNT and GOTG combine? 5000 85.675 Bonus 2: What will Expendables 3 make opening day? 5000 7.245 Bonus 3: What will Into the Storm make on Sunday? 5000 2.352 Bonus 4: What will the combine total be for the three openers come Sunday (5 day and 3day and 3 day) 5000 56.825

1) Will GOTG make more than 75 mill? Yes 2) Will GOTG make more than 80 mill? No 3) Will GOTG make more than 175 mill WW? No 4) Will GOTG make more than 5 mill for Thurs previews? Yes 5) Will Get on Up make more than 7.5 mill OD? No 6) Will Get on Up make more than 20 mill OW? Yes 8) Will Lucy fall less than 58%? No 9) Will Hercules fall more than 58%? Yes 10) Will any film fall more than 20% on Thurs? Yes 11) Will any film fall less 1% on Thurs? No 12) Will any film increase more than 75% on Friday? No 13) Will Purge make more than Planes? No 14) Will Transformers increase more than 53% on Saturday? Yes 12/14 4000 13/14 6000 15/15 10,000 What finishes in spots 9 And So It Goes 11 Boyhood 12 Transformers 4 13 22 Jump Street Bonus 1: What will GOTG gross on Friday? 4000 32.685 Bonus 2: What will Sex Tape gross on Friday? 4000 .689 Bonus 3: What will the gross be for the films that finish in spots 6-10 5000 19.846

1) Which film will gross more between Monday July 28th and LD Monday? Lucy, Herc or Apes? Lucy 2) Will Transformers make more than 1.05 billion by the end of the game? Yes 3) Will Expendables 3 open to more than 25 million? No 4) Will Expendables 3 make more than 250 mill by the end of the game (WW) No 6) Will GOTG open to more than 60 million? Yes 7) Will Tammy reach 90 million by the end of the game? Yes 8) Will Godzilla make it to 200 mill? Yes 9) Which film will gross more between Monday July 28th and LD Monday? 22JS or HTTYD2 22 Jump Street 10) Will The Purge make more than 62 mill by end of the game? Yes

1) Will any film make more than 25 mill? Yes 2) Will Hercules make more than RIPD (OW)? Yes 3) Will Fluffy movie break into the top 15? Yes 4) What will have the best per theater average out of these four films: Happy Christmas, Magic in The Moonlight, A Most Wanted Man, Very Good Girls. Magic in the Moonlight 5) Will And So It goes make more opening weekend than Lucy does OD? No 6) Will Hercules drop on Saturday? No 7) Will Transformers fall more than 40%? Yes 8) Will Apes make more than 20 mill? No 9) Will Sex Tape drop more than 53%? Yes 10) Will Planes have a Saturday increase of more than 57%? Yes 11) Will Purge fall more than 63%? No 12) Will Maleficent make more than HTTYD2? No 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 4 The Purge: Anarchy 9 The Fluffy Movie 12 How to Train Your Dragon 2 14 Maleficent 16 Chef 2000 each bonus of 4000 if all correct Bonus 1: What will Transformers be at WW? 5000 1.025 billion Bonus 2: What will Apes be at WW? 5000 385.847 million Bonus 3: What will the combined weekend gross be for 22JS, HTTYD2 and Tammy? 5000 11.645 million

1) Will any film make 35 million this weekend? Yes 2) Will The Purge finish in the top 3? Yes 3) Will Planes Fire and Rescue open to more than 30 million? No 4) Will Sex Tape make more than 1.8 mill from previews? No 5) Will The Purge make more than 1.8 mill from previews? No 6) Will Apes fall more than 50%? No 7) Will Transformers fall more than 50%? No 8) Will Transformers open to more than 4 mill in Italy? Yes 9) Will Tammy fall less than 37%? Yes 10) Will any film fall less than 20%? Yes 11) Will any film increase by more than 50% on Saturday? Yes 12) Will 22JS have a Friday increase of more than 52.7%? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 1 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 2 The Purge: Anarchy 3 Sex Tape 4 Planes: Fire and Rescue 15 Think Like A Man Too 2000 each 3000 bonus if all correct Bonus 1: What will Purge gross on Friday? 5000 12.286 Bonus 2: What will the cume be for the three openers? 5000 69.476 Bonus 3: What will Transformers gross internationally on the weekend? 5000 52.685

Abstain

All questions worth 1000 All questions pertain to top 12 Due normal time 1) Will Apes open to more than 70 million? No 2) Will Apes open to more than 80 million? No 3) Will Apes make more than 150 mill WW? (whatever number is reported on Sunday, including any 5 day openings, will count) Yes 4) Will Transformers make more than 11 mill in UK (same rule applies...the number was not reported from last weekend, so all that preview money will count) Yes 5) Will Transformers make at least 10 mill more than Tammy? No 6) Will Tammy fall less than 45%? Yes 7) Will Tammy's Thursday be less than a 40% drop from it's first Thurs? No 8) Will Apes receive at least an A- cinemascore? Yes 9) Will any film fall less than 35% from last weekend? Yes 10) Will any film (not including ETE and DUFE) fall more than 50%? No 11) Will 22JS make more than HTTYD2? Yes 12) Will Transformers make more than 75 mill WW (only Sunday estimates will count)? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots: 5 How to Train Your Dragon 2 7 Deliver Us From Evil 12 Edge of Tomorrow 14 The Fault in our Stars 2000 each 3000 bonus for all 4 correct Bonus 1: What will Transformers make in Mexico this weekend? 5000 13.145 Bonus 2: What will Dawn of the Planet of the Apes make in South Korea this weekend (if Mojo does not report this number, we will use Guru, if Guru does not report it, then we will use the number reported in the SK thread in the International numbers thread.....this is the order. 1) Mojo 2) Guru 3) South Korea thread) 5000 10.645 Bonus 3: What will Fault in our Stars gross this weekend? 5000 1.942 Bonus 4: What will ETE's % increase or decrease by on Thurs? 5000 -8.452% Bonus 5: What will Apes make for midnights/early shows? 5000 7.501 Bonus 6: What will the top 10 cume be? 5000 139.823 Bonus 7: What will Transformers WW gross be on Sunday (only mojo counts) 5000 740.001 Bonus 8: What will Snowpiercer's weekend gross be? 5000 1.214 Bonus 9: Add the up the grosses on Friday for Maleficent, EOT and FIOS, what is the number? 5000 2.146 Bonus 10: Top three answers get points: What will X-men's weekend gross be? 1.165 1) 6000 2) 4000 3) 2000

All questions worth 1000 UOS Due normal time All questions pertain to the top 12 UOS All questions pertain to regular three day weekend UOS. 1) Will any Wednesday opener drop less than 20% on Thursday? Yes 2) Will any Wednesday opener increase more than 20% on Friday? No 3) Will Transformers decrease by less than 62.5%? Yes 4) Will Transformers (only Sunday estimates will count) have a total of more than 217.522 mill in China? 5000 Yes 5) Will Tammy make more than 30 mill for the three day? 3000 Yes 6) Will Earth to Echo make more than 12 million? No 7) Will Transformers increase by more than 50% on Saturday? Yes 8) Will any film increase by less than 10% on Friday? Yes 9) Will Deliver us From Evil make more than 22JS and X-men combined? No 10) Will Transformers open to more than 12 million in UK (only Sunday estimates count) Yes 11) Will Transformers WW total be at more than 500 mill by Sunday (only estimates will count) Yes 12) What film finishes in first? Transformers: Age of Extinction 13) Will there be any more fudging this weekend from Paramount? Does a bear s*** in the woods? But seriously, NO 11/13 3000 12/13 5000 13/13 7000 What finishes in spots 3 Deliver Us From Evil 5 Earth to Echo 7 Maleficent 10 Edge of Tomorrow 11 The Fault in Our Stars 2000 each, 5000 bonus if all 5 correct. Bonus 1: What will Tammy's 5 day total be? 5000 43.564 Bonus 2: What will Transformers Thursday gross be? 5000 7.895 Bonus 3: What will the be the best % increase on Friday (so if you think 22JS will increase 67% on Friday, and that is the highest increase in top 12, then your answer would be 67%) 7000 45.215%

1) Will Transformers make more than 8 mill on Thurs/midnight? Yes 2) Will Transformers open to more than 100 mill? Yes 3) Will Transformers open to more than Godzilla? Yes 4) Will Transformers make at least 35 million on Friday (including Thurs)? Yes 5) Will Transformers decrease by more than 10% on Saturday? No 6) Will Transformers decrease by more than 32.4% on Sunday? No 7) Will Transformers make more than 250 mill WW? Yes 8) Will Transformers make more than 80 mill OW in China? Yes 9) Will Transformers make more than 10 mill OW in Australia? Yes 10) Will Transformers have at least an A- cinemascore? Yes 11) What film finishes second? 22 Jump Street 12) Will any film increase more than 65% on Friday? Yes 13) Will any film increase more than 55% on Saturday? No 14) Will Fault in our Stars fall less than 39%? Yes 15) Will Chef stay in the top 10? No 16) Will ASM cross 200.5 mill? No 17) Will any film increase more than 2% on Thurs? No 18) Will TLAM2 fall less than 50%? No 19) Will Jersey Boys fall less than 35%? Yes 20) Will Blended make more than Neighbors? No 16/20 3000 17/20 5000 18/20 6000 19/20 7000 20/20 12000 What finishes in spots (2000 each/3000 bonus for all 5 right) 6 Maleficent 8 The Fault in Our Stars 10 Godzilla 13 Neighbors 14 Blended Bonus 1: What will Transformers gross WW (only Sunday estimates will count) 5000 300.475 Bonus 2: What will the Friday gross be for 22JS? 5000 6.854 Bonus 3: Add the % drops for Maleficent, DOFP and HTTYD, what is the total? (so your number might be 150%....)5000 122.084 Bonus 4: Add the Friday numbers for Edge of Tomorrow, Chef and Fault, give me the total. 5000 3.815 Bonus 5: Top (best) three answers will get points: What will Transformers gross in China this weekend? 100.001 1) 7000 2) 5000 3) 3000

All questions worth 1000 pts Due regular time All questions pertain to the top 12 1) Will Think Like a Man Too make more than 40 mill? No 2) Will Think Like a Man Too make more than 3.05 mill for Thurs? No 3) Will The Jersey Boys make more than 14.5 mill? Yes 4) Will 22 Jump Street fall more than 55%? No 5) Will HTTYD2 decline less than 40%? Yes 6) Will 22JS finish second? Yes 7) Will Fault in our Stars drop more than 45%? No 8) Will EOT have a Friday increase of more than 75%? No 9) Will any film increase on Thurs? Yes 10) Will any film decrease my less than 20% on Sunday? Yes 11) Will any film decrease by less than 30%? Yes 12) Will Frozen finish first in Japan, again? Yes 13) Will FIOS drop on Saturday? No 14) Will Maleficent finish higher than Jersey Boys? No 12/14 3000 13/14 5000 15/15 7000 What finishes in spots: (to make up for last week) 2000 each, if you get all 8 spots, 25,000 pts If you get the spots 10-11-12-13, then you get a bonus of 10,000 No, you cannot get a bonus of 35,000, it's either or. 4 Jersey Boys 5 Maleficent 6 Edge of Tomorrow 7 The Fault in our Stars 10 Chef 11 A Million Ways to Die in the West 12 Neighbors 13 Blended Bonus 1: What will the top ten cume be? 5000 162.254 Bonus 2: What will the drop be for Blended? 5000 -52.471% Bonus 3: What will 22JS make on Friday? 5000 10.831