MovieMan89

Well obviously. Most box office "analyst" sites suck at IMs.

17-19m Friday for MOS would be massive.

Unless James Cameron doesn't do what James Cameron does for James Cameron. James Cameron does what James Cameron does because James Cameron is... James Cameron.

It's a strong possibility, imo. It would be kinda fun to see the Star Wars and Marvel fanboys meltdown at an animated movie beating their favs (not that i don't love SW and Marvel too).

If Avatar 2 actually made 2015 too, the box office would implode on itself and take the universe with it.

It will be interesting to see how TA2 manages to compete that year. I have a feeling it will wind up 3rd to Dory and Star Wars.

The reaction to Dory among people around my age has been insane from my experience. I've been shocked to find more people excited about it than Episode VII (no joke). And kids today still love Nemo as well from what I can tell. Dory will be a monster. If Pixar lives up to Nemo quality wise I'm calling it now, Dory will give Shrek 2 a run in admissions. So 600m+ in other words.

Yeah, I'm already factoring that in. Pixar movies have all had at least 3.6x multis outside of Cars 2, so if WOM for MU is at least Brave level I doubt it goes below a 3.4x multi even with DM2 competition. If it has a 3.4x multi it needs 88m for the weekend to make 300. That's very doable if this OD sticks.

Yeah biggest weekend seems out, but I could maybe see #2 in play ($253m) if these OD numbers stick and everything holds really well. Probably best case scenario: MU: $90m WWZ: 55m MOS: 55m The holdovers could gross another 50m.

IKR? Who'da thunk this weekend could outgross Memorial one?

If that OD number sticks I'd say it's about locked. Short of terrible Cars 2 level WOM that is.

Wow, those would be phenomenal ODs for both, especially MU. Could get close to 90 with that OD, depending on Sat.

1) Will the first place film make at least 10 mill more than the second place film? YES2) Will MU open to more than 65 mill? YES3) Will WWZ open to less than 50 mill? YES4) Will MOS drop less than 55%? NO5) Will MOS's Saturday drop less than 45% from last Saturday? YES6) Will WWZ make more than 2 mill at midnights/sneaks? YES7) Will any film in the top 12 besides Bling Ring have a Friday increase of more than 105%? YES8) Will Bling Ring make more than 3.5 mill NO9) Will MU fall less than 5% on Sat? NO10) Will WWZ drop more than 25% Sunday? YES11) Will NYSM fall less than 38% NO12) Will TITE have a Friday increase of more than 65%? YES13) Will WWZ and MU combine to make more than 100 mill? YES14) What film finishes in first? MU 12/14 400013/14 500014/14 7000 What finishes in spots 2 MOS3 WWZ7 Epic8 Internship9 Bling Ring 2000 each3000 bonus if all correct Bonus 2: Whats the combine gross of MOS and TITE 60.080mBonus 3: What % does MOS drop? 3 decimal spots plz. 60.040%

I don't get why people are using the $125m number when doing its multi? Why are we assuming all $12m of that would otherwise be in the OW w/o the Wal-mart preview? Even if we are using the $125m though, 3x multi puts it at $375m, which has to be best case scenario so not sure where 400 talk is coming from. You guys realize how hard a 3x multi for a SH movie is right? TDKR only managed a 2.8, and I doubt this has as good of WOM as that. I think 2.6x multi from the $125m number, about 2.7x from the actual OW for a $325m finish would be a very great outcome. That would be indicative of how a superhero movie with good but not phenomenal WOM holds.

Looks like everything had nasty drops this weekend. Not sure why since MOS wasn't like IM3/TDKR/TA huge. There should have still been room in the market for the holdovers. Lol at After Earth's performance though. Just pathetic.

$113m is a phenomenal OW for a reboot to a dead franchise, in June no less. Was expecting around 95m OW all summer, but clearly WB's nonstop marketing paid off. Congrats to those who called June record for weeks and congrats to WB for a helluva marketing campaign!

Oops, not sure what stats I was using there, TDKR had a 40 percent mid to OD share. But yeah that's not the best comparison either. Most big June or July openers have around a 30 percent mid to OD ratio though, so I still wouldn't expect 35m OD with that midnight number. 30 percent midnight ratio for it would translate to 30m OD.

I think closer to 30m OD w/o walmart. This is June, midnights in June-August months always make up a bigger percentage of OD. TDKR's mid was 28% of its OD. With the same percentage MOS would make 31m OD (minus wal-marts).

The wal-mart number will be included in OD right? Or can they spread it out?

Don't be surprised guys if the Friday daytime number is less than the mid/wal-mart $22m number. You guys have to take into account for how that inflated its OD.

We don't have to subtract anything. Friday daytime and then the Saturday drop will simply be worse than they would have been w/o the wal-mart thing. Pretty simple honesty, don't know why people are making a big deal out of it.

I doubt the Wal-Mart thing will matter much in the overall weekend. All it does is give it an inflated late show+Midnight number. It will even out with a larger than normal Sat drop.

True, but what it does is inflate the Friday number even greater than it otherwise would be. Those Wal-mart buyers likely would have been more spread out over the weekend normally. So expect a huge Sat drop.

9m is very solid midnight number. However based on other Superhero midnights and the fact that it's June that doesn't bode well for 100m OW imo. That's only a bit over half of IM3's mid take and that was May not June. I'd say that midnight puts it on track for 90m or so. Which would be a very strong OW for it still.

SOTM 6: 3. NO 4. NO 5. NO