MovieMan89

1) Will MOS have one of the top 3 opening days for June of all time? YES 2) Will MOS make at least 5 mill from early/midnights? YES 3) Will MOS make less than 45 mill OD? YES 4) Will MOS make more than 15 mill OW in UK? YES 5) Will MOS have a WW opening of more than 175 mill? NO 6) Will MOS make more than 90 mill OW? YES 7) Will MOS have a Saturday drop? YES 8) Will MOS make more than 100 mill OW? NO 9) Will MOS make more than 10 mill at IMAX domestically? YES 10) Will MOS have a per theater average of more than $25,000? YES 11) Will MOS have a cinemascore of at least A? NO 12) Will MOS make at least 26.1 mill on Sunday? NO 13) Will MOS make at least 30 mill on Sunday? YES 14) Will MOS drop less than 25.5% on Sunday? NO 15) Will MOS make at least 90 mill more than IM3 and After Earth combined? NO 16) Will MOS make more than 120 mill OW? NO 17) Will This is the End make more than 3.5 mill for sneaks? YES 18) Will TITE make more than 10 mill OD? YES 19) Will TITE drop more than 32.2% on Thurs? YES 20) Will TITE have a 5 day of more than 40 mill? YES 21) Will TITE have a Friday increase of more than 75%? NO 22) Will TITE's 5 day be at least half of MOS's 3 day? NO 23) Will the top 10 films combine to make more than 170 million? YES 24) Will The Purge drop less than 62.5%? YES 25) Will The Purge finish top three? NO 26) Will The Purge finish with at least half of TITE's 3 day? YES 27) Will The Internship drop more than 45%? NO 28) Will Nikki's first Friday report come out before 1pm PST time (just go to deadline and see when she posts her tentpoles)? YES 29) Will Nikki's first posting about MOS contain the phrase "NOT A RECORD" or mention anything that resembles MOS not setting any kind of record? YES 30) Will Nikki's first "projection" about MOS be higher than the number reported with official Friday estimates? NO 31) On the first three days, will BKB post anywhere at anytime about how the film is not meeting expectations from a box office standpoint? YES 32) Will the Weekend Numbers thread (this starts with Thurs midnights and goes until Sunday estimates) reach 250 pages by 9AM on Monday? YES 33) Will NYSM drop less than 40%? YES 34) Will any film in the top 10 drop less than 15% on Wednesday? YES 35) Will any film in the top 12 (besides Before Midnight) drop less than 35%? YES 36) Will Before Midnight make more than 2.5M? NO 37) Will IM3 drop less than 50%? NO 38) Will AE, TH3 and TGG all drop more than 50%? NO 39) Will The Internship jump more than 30% on Saturday? YES 40) Will The STID jump at least 60% on Friday? YES Bonus 1: What will MOS's weekend gross be? $92.455m Bonus 2: What will TITE's weekend gross be (3Day)? $23.889m Bonus 3: What will TITE's 5 day be? $40.690m Bonus 4: What will AE, TH3 and Mud's combined weekend gross be? $9.025m Bonus 5: What finishes in spots: 6 The Internship 8 Star Trek Into Darkness 10 The Hangover 3 11 Iron Man 3 13 The Great Gatsby Bonus 6: On Wednesday, what finishes in spots: 3 The Purge 4 Fast 6 6 Star Trek Into Darkness

All questions worth 1000 UOS 1) What film finishes number 1? The Internship2) Will FF6 finish in one of the top 3 spots? No3) Will After Earth fall less than The Happening did in it's second weekend? Yes4) Will any film in the top 12 have a Friday increase of more than 83.5%? Yes5) Will any film in the top 12 have a Saturday increase of more 51.6%? Yes6) Will The Purge open to more than 20 mill? Yes7) Will The Internship open to more than 20 mill? Yes8) Will NYSM fall less 39.4%? No9) Will The East increase more than 200%? No10) Will FF6 have a Saturday increase of more than 43.2%? No11) Will IM3 drop less than 40%? Yes12) Will STID increase more than 65% on Friday Ye

I dont know if they can fudge that much for a weekend. I say within 2m they might fudge.

See The Internship guys!!! Seriously, don't let the bad marketing fool you. If you liked Wedding Crashers or decent comedies, you'll like it.

Yeah, you're right, I probably did lowball it. 40m is a safer bet. Still though, it's gonna be tough for this weekend to beat the December '09 one. Possible, but tough.

So then you're expecting a Sat increase? TH2 had the exact same release date and dropped slightly on Saturday.

Gonna be very close I think as to whether or not this weekend breaks the biggest weekend record. F6: 95-97 STID: 36-38 TH3: 36-38 Epic: 34-37 IM3: 19-21 TGG: 13-15 rest of top 12: 12-18m 245-264m Record is 259m. If it misses it it will be because of Flopover.

SOTM 3: June 9th

Pretty great numbers all around. Except for Flopover of course.

Monuments Men, Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle, and August: Osage County are the movies I'm hearing the most BP buzz about. I wonder if any of those will be very commercially successful though?

I agree, F5 was a very impressive feat. So much so that what makes you think F6 would be able to replicate it? I think if it has the same multi as F5 with a 5m or so bigger OW then that would be quite an achievement already. No one should be expecting anything more.

I'm aware. I said it didn't have a much higher multi. 2.2 to 2.4x is not a massive difference. Last I checked, 2.4x multis are still very frontloaded movies. So please tell me how F6 will not continue to be a frontloaded movie? It could have a 2.6x multi, and it's still a pretty frontloaded movie. That's just the nature of the series. Not sure why you and Lordman are so intent on arguing with me on this subject?

But F5 had already expanded the audience a lot on its opening weekend alone compared to FF4's. And yet it still had roughly the same multi as FF4. So why would this have a significantly higher one?

Anyways the whole point was it's not making "a lot" more than F5 with a 35m OD anyway you slice it, and most people thought it would. Therefore it's a slight underperformer. Unless Friday number goes way up.

I said that might be a bit too high on second thought, but it wouldn't surprise me. And 15% for sure.

Because most Memorial openers are not frontloaded series. X-Men is one of the only ones that was, so that's a great comparison because that always has been a very frontloaded series like Fast and Furious. Actually the Fast series is even more frontloaded historically than the X-Men series. So 20% may be a tad too high for Sunday drop, but I'll be shocked if it drops less than 15%. And I think 20% is possible.

Which is still only a whopping 5m higher than F5. So even if that optimistic scenario pans out, it's not doing a lot more than F5 with a 35m OD.

How is that so much? F5 dropped 13% on Saturday, but it didn't have as big of midnights. 18% is reasonable for F6 with the bigger mids. And a 21% Sunday drop isn't much at all. Even for Memorial Day weekend that's a great hold.

Doesn't really matter for the 3 day in this case since the Fast series is an OD heavy series. Its Sat drop should be harsher than F5'sd because midnights were bigger, meaning the softer Sunday drop won't matter as much. It evens out. 35m 29m (-18%) 23m (-21%) 87m 3 day (less than 1m higher than F5) There's no way it's doing "a lot" more than F5's 3 day with a 35m OD. 4m more absolute max.

Not with a 35m OD it won't do much more than F5 over the 3 day. That's the same OD F5 had.

Remains to be seen. Only matching F5's OW will be under expectations. Not terribly so, but almost everyone predicted it to do a solid 5-15m more on OW than F5.

Another massive near 200% Friday jump for IM3 it sounds like. Will be 26m+ for the 4 day with that. That thing is just a beast on weekends.

A+ Gravity A American Hustle Catching Fire Before Midnight The Wolf of Wall Street Blue Jasmine The Conjuring A- Philomena Nebraska Saving Mr. Banks Blackfish The Great Gatsby The Spectacular Now Inside Llewyn Davis B+ 12 Years a Slave Rush 42 In a World Prisoners Enough Said Thor: The Dark World We're the Millers The Wolverine Despicable Me 2 The Way, Way Back The Heat Fruitvale Station The Croods Monsters University B The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug The Book Thief The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Iron Man 3 Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 RED 2 About Time Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom Fast and Furious 6 Turbo The Internship The Sapphires White House Down Mud Warm Bodies Oz the Great and Powerful Star Trek into Darkness The Butler B- Anchorman 2 Captain Phillips Ender's Game Riddick Metallica: Through the Never The Call 20 Feet From Stardom The World's End Pacific Rim World War Z C+ Frozen Man of Steel Now You See Me Oblivion GI Joe: Retaliation C Elysium Jack the Giant Slayer Admission Instructions Not Included Olympus Has Fallen C- Jobs Delivery Man D+ 47 Ronin Epic Broken City D The Lone Ranger All is Lost D- Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

If F6 had the same legs as F5 with a 35m OD it will finish around 210m just like F5.

Epic will kick TH3's ass if it made 10m today and TH3 only did 13 or so. Epic will have a big sat increase.