Bluebomb

The Hobbit is looking at 30,000-35,000 admissions on opening day.

Thursday schedules Pacific Place New Holdovers Leaving The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 15 showings Back to 1942 - 1 showing (▼ 5) Code Name Geronimo Jan Dara: The Beginning - 1 showing (▼ 2) Iron Sky Killing Them Softly - 1 showing (▼ 3) Red Dawn Life of Pi 3D - 4 showings (▼ 6) Rise of the Guardians (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (▼ 2) Cold War - 2 showings (▼ 4) Skyfall - 1 showing (▼ 4) Palace APM New Holdovers Leaving The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 17 showings My Sassy Hubby - 7 showings (▼ 12) The Unbelievable 2: Channeling the Spirits The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 1 showing Rurouni Kenshin - 1 showing (▼ 4) Jan Dara: The Beginning Life of Pi 3D - 6 showings (-) Life of Pi Cold War - 4 showings (▼ 7) Love in Time Skyfall Festival Walk New Holdovers Leaving The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 15 showings My Sassy Hubby - 4 showings (▼ 6) Caught in the Web The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 4 showings Back to 1942 - 3 showings (▼ 5) Code Name Geronimo Killing Them Softly - 1 showing (-) Iron Sky Life of Pi 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5) Red Dawn Rise of the Guardians (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (-) Life of Pi Argo - 1 showing (▼ 2) Cold War - 2 showings (▼ 6) Skyfall - 1 showing (▼ 2) Cityplaza New Holdovers Leaving The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 11 showings My Sassy Hubby - 3 showings (▼ 5) Rurouni Kenshin The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 3 showings Back to 1942 - 4 showings (▼ 5) Killing Them Softly Life of Pi 3D - 5 showings (-) Happiness Never Comes Alone Cold War - 1 showing (▼ 3) Skyfall The Hobbit doesn't make it to the 20 showings benchmark. Its extremely long runtime may have something to do with that. It'll make over 2m at least with these types of showtimes and ticket prices. 3-3.5m will depend on how well it does with walk-ups. My Sassy Hubby is the big winner this week. It not only supplanted Life of Pi to get the remaining 7 PM showtime this week but theaters have also given it more showtimes over Life of Pi. The biggest losers are Code Name Geronimo, Rurouni Kenshin, Killing Them Softly and Skyfall. All of them are getting squashed in at least 40% of theaters. Now, introducing HFR 3D... Langham Place New Holdovers Leaving The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey HFR 3D - 6 showings My Sassy Hubby - 7 showings (▼ 10) A Ghost of A Chance The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 10 showings Back to 1942 - 4 showings (▼ 5) The Unbelievable 2: Channeling the Spirits The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 2 showings Code Name Geronimo - 2 showings (▼ 4) Red Dawn Life of Pi 3D - 5 showings (▼ 7) Love in Time Cold War - 2 showings (▼ 4) Sinister Skyfall HFR won't get a lot of showtimes because it's being marketed as a special promotion. It's new and people might not want to see it so the majority of showings will still go to the regular 3D version. Theaters want to give viewers the chance to see it in regular 3D if they wish. That's why only a handful of theaters have picked up the HFR version even though 90% of HK theaters are digital. All of them can play HFR but they would rather stick with the known than the unknown. Pre-sales for The Hobbit are depressing. They are worse than TASM and every other blockbuster that has come out in the past couple of years. Reasons could be several including high ticket prices, prequel factor, big November and big competition next weekend. The Hobbit remains the biggest threat to everyone but there will be something for everyone next weekend when a chick flick, action movie, cartoon, movie musical and Chinese action movie all come out. Also, let us not forget that November 2012 is the only November in all of history to gross more than 2m total every weekend and it broke the biggest November weekend twice in the same month. It's also the biggest November on record with almost 12.5m in the piggy bank. Moviegoers might not be as willing to part with their cash after watching Skyfall, Cold War and Life of Pi last month.

Yes. My guess is people will decide when they're walking up to the theater. People will want to see the latest blockbuster but will they pay extra to see it in regular 3D (or even HFR 3D?)? We'll know more on Thursday but it's not looking good right now. Still, The Hobbit has a huge advantage with these ticket prices and there's going to be a wave of people who will not care about the price. There could be the slight issue of the prequel stigma as well. TASM had it. I won't be surprised if this has it.Mainlander effect may happen here with it delayed until February in China. Will need to monitor this more closely.

Probably not in theaters. It's too expensive. Even regular 3D (non-HFR 3D) is the same price as HFR 3D. Crazy.I think this is why it's having really poor pre-sales so far. I'm surprised at how lackluster the ticket sales have been but pricing could be a factor. People don't want to pay $30-$60 HK more for a movie.

Did you see this post?

December 6 Weekend Actuals 1. Life of Pi - $4,044,322 2. My Sassy Hubby - $413,705/$417,376 (weekend actual) 3. Cold War - $5,300,082 4. Back to 1942 - $159,616 (weekend actual) 5. Seal Team Six: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden (Code Name Geronimo) - $65,895 (weekend actual) Others Skyfall - $4,759,979 Red Dawn - $180,987 Rise of the Guardians - $307,267 Love in Time - $273,602 Killing Them Softly - $124,117 Life of Pi and My Sassy Hubby were adjusted up from estimates. Despite the upward adjustment for Life of Pi, 5m is still uncertain. My Sassy Hubby had a very good weekend. Cold War slid about 52% from last weekend. 5.5m is up in the air. Back to 1942 posted a decent gross. Seal Team 6 struck out. Skyfall will hit 4.8m before leaving theaters.

The Hobbit will take up 3-4 screens this weekend while Life of Pi, My Sassy Hubby, Cold War, Back to 1942 and other extraneous films will share the remaining 1-2 screens. Full schedules will be up later.

Life of Pi is actually losing showings to My Sassy Hubby which is a surprise. Didn't expect that to happen. Could be close to 70% screen loss for Life of Pi now since My Sassy Hubby is getting the last 7 PM showtime over it at 2 theater chains which is weird. I definitely don't understand the rationale on that one. Will check again tomorrow to see if UA reflects this or gives Life of Pi the last 7 PM showtime. Monday admissions My Sassy Hubby actually increased from Thursday and built a bigger gap between itself and Life of Pi. Life of Pi fell 28% from last Monday.

Way over! WIR opens in 10 markets on Christmas week and will likely take the screens away from RotG too, if they haven't been taken away by The Hobbit.

5m for Life of Pi is not assured. 4.5m is but 5m is not because Life of Pi will lose at least 60% of screens to The Hobbit. It could be 75% in some theaters if they schedule both 2D and 3D for The Hobbit and depending on individual theater chains. Ex: Cold War will likely get the nod over Life of Pi in EDKO theaters. December 20 will knock down Life of Pi again despite Christmas weekend. It should lose another round of screens that weekend and could be knocked out completely if Jack Reacher and Breaking Dawn Part 2 remain competitive.

Read my next post.

No, it's not.

With 4 days to go, The Hobbit is eerily quiet so far. I think beating The Avengers OW is out of the question at this point. The best it can do is 3.5m if it picks up heavily with walk-ins. Ticket prices for The Hobbit are almost double ROTK's so it doesn't have to be competitive in admissions that much to garner a very strong gross. The average ticket price in 3D (HFR or non-HFR) is about $105-$110 HK ($13.50-$14.20 -- factors in morning show as well). 2D showings have not been scheduled yet. Weekend Estimates December 6 Rank Title TW % chg Total 1 Life of Pi $700,000 -37.8% $4,005,000 2 My Sassy Hubby $375,000 $380,000 3 Cold War $170,000 -53.3% $5,295,000 4 Back to 1942 $155,000 $155,000 5 Code Name Geronimo $63,000 $63,000 Life of Pi held great once again. Despite the new challenge from My Sassy Hubby, WOM continued to be very strong, carrying Saturday and Sunday to exceptional holds of below 35%. Saturday was its best day in admissions but Sunday was its best day in % as it fell only 34%. It widened the gap between itself and My Sassy Hubby through the 4-day period. It lost to My Sassy Hubby on Thursday, won by over 5,000 admissions on Friday, strengthened its hold by less than 10,000 on Saturday and defeated Hubby by over 10,000 admissions on Sunday. It will pass 4m either on Sunday or Monday depending on actuals. My Sassy Hubby had a good opening with over a $10,000 PSA this weekend. While WOM doesn't look too optimistic, its first weekend showed signs of strength. 80% of admissions were from walk-ins and it beat Life of Pi 3/4 days with only walk-ins. Cold War had a glass half-full/half-empty weekend. It depends on your view here. My Sassy Hubby was the local's top choice this weekend but Cold War dropped only 53% yet it still dropped 53% despite My Sassy Hubby not being a big grosser and the difference in genre. Cold War will pass 5.4m although I think 5.5m is out of the picture. Back to 1942 was solid, if a bit mediocre. Period drama is a bit different from all the other major films this week so it took advantage. Seal Team Six: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden (Code Name Geronimo) pounded softly. It had a low Saturday/Sunday, like Killing Them Softly last weekend. Will leave most theaters next week.

Thor

1. Spider-Man 2 (10/10) - A+2. The Amazing Spider-Man (9.5/10) - A3. Spider-Man (9/10) - A-4. Spider-Man 3 (7/10) - B-

Wow, that doesn't include SE Asia. SE Asia should pull in 15-20m.

Bigger than Rise?

Yes. 6 animation films in 8 weeks too. Doraemon is going to get a July 25 release so 7 animation films in 8 weeks.

2013 Summer Blockbuster Schedule Release Date Movie Title April 11 Oblivion April 25 Iron Man 3 May 16 Star Trek Into Darkness May 23 The Fast and the Furious 6 June 20 World War Z Evil Dead June 27 Kick-Ass 2 Epic July 4 Despicable Me 2 July 11 Monsters University July 18 Turbo July 25 The Wolverine August 1 The Lone Ranger The Smurfs 2 August 8 Elysium August 15 Planes August 22 Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters Unscheduled: The Hangover 3 (June) Man of Steel (June) After Earth (June) The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (August) Oblivion starts off the summer and its gross will largely depend on Jack Reacher's gross IMO. Tom Cruise is a huge draw here so it should be able to churn out a 2m gross. Iron Man 3 will hit at least 7m with 3D prices. Star Trek 2 gets a good release date this time. It will double the first film thanks to 3D prices. The Fast and the Furious 6 will be very interesting to watch. Fast Five grossed more than the rest of the Fast series combined so prospects for Fast 6 will be huge. 2.5m should be no problem for it after the good word of mouth from Fast Five. 3m might be a little iffy given the amount of solid new releases in June. The Hangover 3, Man of Steel and After Earth all have not been given concrete release dates yet, however, Hangover 3 will perform well. Hangover 3 is coming off the success of Hangover 2 and given that HK is not really a market for Hollywood comedies, Hangover 3 should still increase from the 2nd film. Man of Steel has a much better release date than Superman Returns but early June is usually the weakest time of the summer. Recently though, Prometheus dominated the first 2 weekends of June 2012 and X-Men: First Class also saw high returns so putting a high profile release in the first 2 weekends of June is not a death trap. Will Smith is another huge draw but we need to know its release date first before we can tell how After Earth will do. World War Z could be a major disappointment. Vampires are not a major draw in HK so I don't see how zombies will either. Worse still, it's going up against another zombie movie in Evil Dead the same weekend. Evil Dead won't do much since it's coming out against World War Z and HK is one of the weakest territories for zombie/horror movies. Kick-Ass 2 should increase from the first one. Kick-Ass enjoyed solid WOM and enjoyed over a 3x multiplier. Epic starts off the flurry of summer animation releases in 2013. It probably won't do well because it's not a sequel and there are much more high profile animation releases coming out this summer. It doesn't help that the next 3 weekends all feature fairly big animation movies. Despicable Me 2 is the follow-up to Despicable Me and while that had an OK gross, I can't get behind the sequel. Not only will it have to deal with animation releases left and right but it's in a July spot that is perfect for a big release. There's not a whole lot of summer dates yet but that will change. Monsters University will be the first of 2 animation releases that many are pinning their hopes on. Pacific Rim hasn't been scheduled yet but even if it does go day-date with US, Monsters University will be one of the big animation releases of the summer. After the flop of Brave, Pixar needs to get back on track especially given the downward trend the last couple of films. Turbo will bomb. I don't see this doing well since it's being sandwiched between MU and The Smurfs 2. The Wolverine will do well with a summer date. I see this making over 2m. The Smurfs 2 and The Lone Ranger will go head to head. The Lone Ranger doesn't seem like it'll make a lot since it's a Western but it's got Johnny Depp. The most likely candidate for #1 will be The Smurfs 2 since sequels usually increase and it was the only animation film of 2010 to squeak through with a good gross. 3m could happen. Elysium should do well even though Matt Damon isn't a draw. District 9 almost made 1m despite being released in the fall. I can't see Elysium doing less than 1m here. Planes should be a massive flop. I don't see this making more than $500,000. Percy Jackson 2 will deliver since the first one made 2m and had a 4x multiplier. The Mortal Instruments is an uncertainty until we know its release date.

I added January releases in first post. Release Date Movie Title December 6 Iron Sky My Sassy Hubby The Fierce Wife The Mystical Laws Seal Team 6: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden Caught in the Web Rurouni Kenshin The Unbelievable 2 - Channeling the Spirits A Letter to Momo A Ghost of A Chance Back to 1942 Fairy Tail: The Phoenix Priestess December 13 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey All About My Wife Penance (Parts 1-3) December 20 CZ12 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Jack Reacher Wreck-It Ralph Bunny Drop Penance (Parts 4-5) December 25 Les Miserables December 27 Celeste & Jesse Forever In The House The Guillotines Naruto: Road to Ninja Keep the Lights On December 6 is the calm before the storm week. I'm kinda surprised that they decided to send most of these films to the grave by opening 1 week before The Hobbit. My Sassy Hubby looks to do the best of the lot. The Hobbit will clobber everything and anything on December 13. It will also affect the openers on Christmas week (Wreck-It Ralph and Breaking Dawn Part 2 are having special screenings the weekend before). How this month turns out will depend on The Hobbit. It really will. Should it disappoint a lot, Twilight, Jack Reacher, CZ12 and the other Christmas offerings will survive but otherwise, I see a lot of muted grosses for the rest and a huge sum for The Hobbit. I can't see The Hobbit making anything less than 10m though. These ticket prices are no joke and I think it's possible The Hobbit could take down The Avengers opening weekend gross despite Christmas being around the corner. Les Miserables seems to be on an island of its own but it too will feel effect of The Hobbit. December 27 week looks really weak so holdovers will pounce on the new films.

Sunday December 2 Rank Title LW (adm.) TW (adm.) % chg (adm.) QD % chg (adm.) 1 Life of Pi 53,047 44,701 -15.7% -2.3% 2 Cold War 30,841 17,657 -42.7% -13.1% 3 Skyfall 9,619 5,374 -44.1% -4.3% 4 Red Dawn -- 4,777 -- -18.3% 5 Rise of the Guardians 6,530 4,418 -32.3% -- Red Dawn had a really weak Sunday hold and it allowed Skyfall to pass it for #3. Pretty standard for rest. Interesting facts: 43% of Killing Them Softly's weekend admissions came from Thursday and Friday while 88% of Rise of the Guardians's 2nd weekend came courtesy of Saturday and Sunday. Weekend adm. Nov 29-Dec 2 Rank Title LW TW % chg 1 Life of Pi 148,937 130,811 -12.2% 2 Cold War 103,739 59,743 -42.4% 3 Red Dawn -- 18,046 -- 4 Skyfall 30,863 16,463 -46.7% 5 Killing Them Softly -- 12,015 -- Weekend Estimates November 29 Rank Title TW % chg Total 1 Life of Pi $1,135,000 -17.3% $2,970,000 2 Cold War $350,000 -47.7% $4,990,000 3 Skyfall $130,000 -45.7% $4,660,000 4 Red Dawn $125,000 $125,000 5 Killing Them Softly $72,500 $72,500 With the exception of Life of Pi, none of the other holdovers in top 5 or openers performed well.

Sunday adm. (so far) December 2 Rank Title LW TW % chg QD % chg 1 Life of Pi 24,912 21,439 -13.9% +13.5% 2 Cold War 11,148 5,594 -49.8% +5.6% 3 Rise of the Guardians 2,781 2,072 -25.5% +73.4% 4 Skyfall 3,682 1,892 -48.6% +19.7% 5 Killing Them Softly -- 1,195 -- -7.0% Great for Life of Pi. It could fall less than 15% today. Cold War is slowing down but I think it will drop less than 50% for the weekend. There's no other way to explain about Rise of the Guardians' Jekyll and Hyde moves up and down the chart except that it does terrible on weekdays but has very strong weekends. Thursday and Friday saw heavy drops of more than 65% but today it will fall around 30% from last Sunday. Skyfall should win in admissions and gross on Sunday and it will just be able to squeeze past Red Dawn for #3. Killing Them Softly is doing horribly. WOM is killing this badly.

firedeep already corrected me. See above.

Nope.I don't base my opinion on what other people think. Otherwise, I would have loved The Dark Knight Rises, Argo, Skyfall but feel indifference or hatred to The Amazing Spider-Man and other films.I go by what entertained me and what didn't. What people say about the film has no bearing on me unless if I'm on the fence about something then I will use reviews/buzz and the like to see if I will change my mind about seeing the movie.

Saturday December 1 Rank Title LW (adm.) TW (adm.) % chg (adm.) QD % chg (adm.) 1 Life of Pi 50,220 45,772 -8.9% +88.7% 2 Cold War 35,645 20,326 -43.0% +59.3% 3 Red Dawn -- 5,846 -- +38.5% 4 Skyfall 10,514 5,615 -46.6% +76.0% 5 Killing Them Softly -- 3,613 -- +29.3% Life of Pi had an outstanding hold. It couldn't, however, nab the increase due to the weak afternoon session. Fortunately, it came back at night to slip only 9% for the day. Cold War is hanging on in its 4th weekend. Red Dawn won in admissions but Skyfall won in gross on Saturday. These 2 will be very close this weekend. As far as their increases are concerned, Red Dawn didn't have much of one while Skyfall shot up. Killing Them Softly had a shaky increase and it can be blamed on the terrible word of mouth it's getting. The F Cinemascore is accurately depicted with early user reviews so far. Every single person has given this crime drama a thumbs down. Weekend Projections November 29 Rank Title TW % chg Total 1 Life of Pi $1,135,000 -17.3% $2,970,000 2 Cold War $350,000 -47.7% $4,990,000 3 Skyfall $130,000 -45.7% $4,660,000 4 Red Dawn $125,000 $125,000 5 Killing Them Softly $75,000 $75,000 What can we say about Life of Pi? How about fan-freaking-tastic? It'll have to come down to actuals but 3m could be achieved this weekend. Regardless of when it passes the 3m mark, its hold is one of the best this year for a 2nd weekend holdover. Cold War is also waiting for actuals to confirm if it snuck past 5m this weekend. Its 4th weekend drop isn't great, but, many HK films fail to deliver at least 3 weekends of below 50% holds. The last HK film to achieve this was Ip Man 2 and it could even do one better if it drops less than 50% next week. Skyfall held OK and it is currently looking at a 4.825m finish. For the weekend, it will be a close duel for #3 between itself and Red Dawn. Currently, Red Dawn is ahead but Skyfall will have the better Sunday to snag the victory. Killing Them Softly is having very weak increases the past 2 days. I don't expect much of a decrease on Sunday due to the very soft increase on Saturday but its weekend turned out to be a failure.