peludo

I am IN. TS4 seems the hardest choice, but I would love to see it. I love the 3 previous films. TLK, Frozen 2 and SW9 are extremely likely.

Ask what you want I will try to answer. This is just my perception, it is not necessarily the truth. IMO, there are 2 main reasons: first of all is 2008 economical collapse. Before that, there was a low unemployment rate, about 8%, what maybe is not special for many countries but in Spain was the lowest rate in the whole democratic period (since 1978). When crisis hit us, the unemployment rate reached nearly 26% (2012-2013). Concerning market behaviour, I think these data are very clear: Yearly admissions in Spain: 2000: 135.4 2001: 146.8 2002: 140.7 2003: 137.5 2004: 143.9 million 2005: 127.7 (beginning of massive downloads) 2006: 121.7 2007: 116.9 2008: 107.8 2009: 110.0 2010: 101.6 2011: 98.3 2012: 94.2 2013: 78.7 (peak of unemployment) 2014: 88.0 2015: 96.1 2016: 101.8 2017: 99.8 2018: 97.7 (estimated) People are coming back to theaters since the worst moment of the crisis. We have basically recovered the 100 million level. But it is still far from early 00s. What happened? what I think it is the second reason: to see films at home. There is a drop from 2005, when downloads started to rise. Spain has downloaded A LOT (by 2014, Spain was the 5th country in the world with more downloads). And now there is craziness about TV at home (Netflix, HBO, Amazon, ...) so people prefer to see contents at home instead at theaters, so attendance drops or at very least, it is not able to reach early 00s level. And you say that every market tend to rise. I think that is a bit tricky. You have to take into account more factors. There are developing markets which have room for growth. I have not updated data, but for example, Brazil is probably already over 200 million admissions per year. But its population is 209 million, so we are talking about 1 ticket per person and year. Spain has 46 million inhabitants, so we go more than 2 times per year to see films. Concerning inflation, Spain tickets are flat since 2010, when it was €6.52. Right now, it is about €6.50 (we have been under €6 during this period). And there is another important factor: the population is not growing and it is becoming older and older. There are more deaths than births, and the more aged population is growing while the young population is decreasing. This does not help to films that are oriented to young people like CBMs, which use to be the biggest films worldwide.

Maybe the reason of that is Spider-man was already very popular here. It sold 5.2 million admissions. In the same way than Superman in 1978 (5.2 million admissions) or Batman in 1989 (3.5 million admissions). Those 3 characters have always been considered the most famous (until MCU). Even X-Men were selling 2 million admissions in early 00s and now it is not able to reach 1 million. And I insist, the market was way more attended 15-20 years ago than now. In early 00s, Spain was selling 130-140 million admissions per year. Right now, it barely sells 100 million. And let's remember something basic: this is an American comic. The genre has never been as big in Europe as it is DOM, Asia or Latin America. We prefer other things. The result for EG here is really astonishing all factors considered.

SH genre has never been the strongest here. The former record was for Spider-man, with €22m. But that was made when the market was bigger than now. Concerning EG, you have to take into account it is the 22nd film of a series. It is not an origin film which can be seen by everyone independently if they have seen the previous films or not. And the evolution of Avengers films is quite revealing: The Avengers: €16.2m Age of Ultron: €12.1m Infinity War: €20.5m Endgame: about €29m IMO, to reach the top 10 is an amazing result for a film like EG. Not everything can be liked in the same way everywhere. If that happened, this would be boring as hell.

It looks great. Does it have the Wandering Earth's potential or it is more modest?

June 7th-9th: Astonishing drop for Aladdin after Fiesta del Cine. It has done the best 3rd weekend since "A Monster Calls". To compare with "Beauty and the Beast": 3rd weekend: €2.31m (-50%) - €16.1m 4th weekend: €1.1m (-52%) - €18.0m In terms of admissions, Aladdin is already over BatB because of low prices of Fiesta del Cine. BatB was at 2.7 million after 3rd weekend. Applying logic and being conservative, Aladdin is heading to 20 million (x3 multiplier from this weekend), but if holds keep being so impressive we could see 23-24 million (Jungle Book added 6 million from a €2m 3rd weekend, for example). That 23-24 range would mean to match the original admissions figure (4.1 million). Dark Phoenix (€1.1m) starts well behind Apocalypse (€1.6m). It had a x3 multiplier (€4.9m total). €3m should be reachable, but to go beyond that seems hard. Rocketman holds well after the meh opening. I still keep the €3m projection. Endgame has reached the top 10 unadjusted, outgrossing POTC2, which leaves top 10 after nearly 13 years. But I do not see enough fuel to beat The Two Towers (€29.8m) to get the #9 spot. Let's see if it is able to reach €29m. In terms of admissions it has just beaten Bohemian Rhapsody (4.47m vs 4.43m).

I have not said it will repeat the same result than first part, but I think it will be tougher competition than Hobbs & Shaw. First of all because the target of Pets 2 is more similar to TLK than Furious saga. And because the fact that Pets is falling relative to first part does not imply it will drop in the same way everywhere. Animated genre uses to make very good numbers. Said this, TLK will destroy everything, no matters what it faces.

The first Pets did €21m and nearly 4 million admissions.

20 million locked. Next station: BatB with 22 million. Amazing performance. We can see something really crazy with TLK

When? in total? After Wednesday it should already be at about 2.5 million. I think it could finish with about 3.5 million, decently close to the 4.1 million figure of the original.

May 31st - June 2nd: First of all, after Fiesta del Cine celebrated from Monday to Wednesday, it is harder than usual to give estimations, since the grosses and admissions have been boosted but we do not know how much and how it will affect to upcoming holds. Said this, and as we had already seen on Monday, amazing drop for Aladdin after the big OW. I guess it will drop harder this upcoming weekend because many people who wanted to see it will have seen it during this discount period. Anyway, it should be well over €14m after upcoming Sunday, and 18-20 million should be the target. John Wick should outgross it predecessor, which did €1.2m. It should land somwhere between 1.5 and 2 million. Definitely Rocketman is not another Bohemian Rhapsody. This kind of films use to have better legs than usual, but right now I do not see it beyond €3m. Pikachu heading to about 6-6.5 million Endgame could try €29m. Dumbo is finishing with about €14.5m Hellboy is a disgrace: it drops a 73% after the 68% drop of last week.

€25m as minimum? I said that TS3 was hugely inflated by 3D. If TS4 sells the same number of admissions today than TS3 would imply about €20.5m, not €25m. Pixar is widely beloved in Spain. Nearly every Pixar film has made great numbers. But not every sequel has increased. Nemo was adored here (it is the biggest Pixar film in terms of admissions). It did €23.8m. But Dory dropped to €17.7m. Being reasonable and objective, I would say the minimum we can expect for TS4 is 16-18 million euros (let's remember the competition with The Lion King or Pets 2). I insist, MINIMUM. Said this, the logical final range is what @ScareLol says, 20-25 million, probably low 20s.

If I am not wrong, China grossed 60b Yuan last year, what today means $8.8b. Unless there is a bunch of local big films during the second half of the year, I do not see the Chinese market increasing a 25% this year, so those $11b projected for this year seem a chimera. Maybe we will see the market landing in $9b territory this year, but still far from the $12b of DOM market.

No, Spain has not expanded. In fact, it has dropped as a market since 2010, when Toy Story 3 was released (not 2012). Market 2010: €662.3m 2018: €585.7m (still provisional data, but it will not go over €600m) Average ticket price 2010: €6.52 2018: €5.99 And let's remember that TS3 was extremely benefited by 3D explosion after Avatar: Cume: €24,985,359 Admissions: 3,624,912 Avg: €6.89 Last Pixar film (Incredibles 2) did: Cume: €21,147,043 Admissions: 3,722,564 Avg: €5.68

Just curiousity: where did you get that amount for TS4? I have it at €24.99m (Ministry of Culture). And it was released at 2010, not in 2012 Said this, I agree with that 20-25 million initial range.