peludo

Deadpool did $5.16m on its second Tuesday (February 23rd).

Spain (official data): OW: €4,461,390 2nd: €4,484,575 (+0.5%) Basically flat. Edit: It is already the 2nd biggest DC film ever (€12.0m), just behind Aquaman, which will be outgrossed along this week (€13.8m)

IMHO, $900m are locked. It should try the billion.

And applying that 40% drop until the end of the run everywhere from now it would finish with about $985m.

Maybe it is early and I should wait until next weekend to say this, but I am already thinking in Joker beating Endgame (€29m)...

The provisional data for the weekend is €4.4m, which is exactly the same provided last week. I would not rule out that the definitive number (on Wednesday) could finally deliver a 0% drop, or even an slight increase. If it starts to drop like a CBM from now, and delivers, for example, a run like Captain Marvel, it would finish with about €23m, enough to be #4 of the year (Aladdin ranks #3 with €25m). But I doubt it will follow that kind of usual run. IMO, it already has a chance to beat Endgame as the 2nd film of the year (EG did €29m; TLK seems, for the moment, unreachable, with €37m), and become the biggest CBM film ever.

Pretty agree. More than the 123m, the data to look at is the drop. And we have to take into account that the leggiest market, Japan, is deflated because the typhoon. To make over $600m OS without China is something that just Avengers films and IM3 have done it. And Joker is doing it without 3D. OS-China (from BOM) - Over 400m: Endgame: 1,323 Infinity War: 1,010 Avengers: 809 Age of Ultron: 706 Iron Man 3: 684 The Dark Knight Rises: 584 Civil War : 565 Captain Marvel: 547 Black Panther: 545 Far from Home: 542 Spider-man 3: 535 Aquaman: 522 The Dark Knight: 469 Deadpool 2: 460 Batman v Superman: 448 TASM: 447 Homecoming: 430 Ragnarok: 426 Suicide Squad: 421 Deadpool: 420 Spider-man: 413 TASM2: 412

Which ones are they? I see some SH films this year that has not grossed 1 billion: Shazam, Hellboy and Dark Phoenix.

Maybe we should start to asume that this is not a normal CBM. It is not a PG-13, it is not a coloured film, it has not 3D, ... it seems anything else but a normal CBM. And the behaviour in BO is obviously not the same. Of course, I can be wrong, but It seems more a Bohemian Rhapsody than a FFH in terms of BO.

If it is not to speculate about numbers, then why are we here?

$900m? That is what it would do with just normal legs from now. Seeing the international figures breakdown, I am convinced some of those markets are flat or they even have increased from OW. The example I better know: Spain OW: $4.8m Today: $13.7m Week: $8.9m Even if it has done the same during weekdays than during weekend, we would be talking about less than 10% drop. Asuming a $4.5m 2nd weekend (what is bigger than FFH OW in Spain), and asuming SAME legs than FFH it will reach here $25m. But I doubt it will have the same legs. IMO, the title of biggest SH film ever in Spain ($32m of Endgame) is in play, what means to be in top 10 all time. Talking about WW, 1 billion is likely. And $1.1b is in play.

It is not only China. We use to focus on China because it is the most spectacular change, but there are many markets which have grown a lot in last 15 years: Brazil, Mexico, some Asian countries like Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia... To make 1 billion 15 years ago was nearly a miracle. All of us know what kind of beast was Titanic. But ROTK did more than 1.1b without China (it did 10 million there). The first Harry Potter did 975 million without those expanding markets and the worst exchange rates I can remember (1€=0.90$ in late 2001).

Right now, I am thinking that it could become the 2nd biggest SH film ever in Spain, just behind Endgame. Unless it suddenly collapses, and seeing the trend, $900m seems a good bet.

Or even less... I have been seeing +90% full every showtime. It is probable that the Joker's 2nd weekend can be bigger than any DC OW, excepting Joker's OW... It seems an OW of an anticipated movie. It is crazy.

That would mean about 450-500 OS. I think it will go higher than that. I have the feeling that the drop in some European countries this weekend can surprise even more than the OW figures.