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MJL

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About MJL

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    Indie Sensation
  • Birthday 07/12/1977

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    Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania

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  1. True, the only reason I calculated it as I did is because Deadline specifically called out the drop from OD + previews and not how we usually calculate the Saturday here
  2. Someone please tell me I’m wrong because if this is the case, with a 25% drop on Sunday (very conservative) we get: At the same % drop: 150 Friday 115.5 Saturday 86.6 Sunday 352.1 OW or for a 27% drop from full Friday: 150 Friday 109.5 Saturday 82.1 Sunday 341.6 OW
  3. Um, did you guys see this nugget from Deadline’s report???? It’s impossible, right??? “Industry estimates are already calling Endgame at the highest single day and opening day record of all-time with $140M-$150M. Estimates earlier this morning indicate a weekend take between $315M-$330M. Infinity War had a Saturday decline of 23% or $82.1M and box office analysts believe a similar ease will occur tomorrow” So.... 150 * 0.77 = 115.5 This can’t be right... Let’s do a 27% drop 150 * 0.73 = 109.5 So a similar ease brings us to roughly a 110+ Saturday????? 😵 https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fastest-film-to-hit-100m-box-office-1202601937/
  4. Um guys, I know everyone glossed over that last article from Deadline....but there is a shocking piece of data that makes me think this weekend is gonna blow up even larger than we think “Fandango officially reports today that Avengers: Endgame before opening at 6PM tonight, is officially their biggest ticket preseller of all-time with 8K showtimes already sold out coast to coast (and beyond), from Hilo, Hawaii to Newington, New Hampshire.” This is utterly huge!!! Let’s compare this with what fandango reported after IW’s preview number was released: “Fandango said the sales represented the company’s highest opening night percentage for a superhero movie. It noted that more than 2,500 showtimes sold out on Fandango before the film opened, adding that theater owners are continuing to add new showtimes throughout the weekend to meet fan demand.” links are below for both articles https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fandango-biggest-preseller-of-all-time-1202602025/amp/ https://variety.com/2018/film/news/fandango-sells-avengers-infinity-war-opening-night-tickets-1202790779/amp/
  5. I’m surprised everyone is lowballing (in my opinion) next weekend and the legs on IW. Yes, history says it should fall to 100-110M next weekend. Yes, history says that it should only get around a 2.5 - 2.7 multiplier for a total in the 600-700M range. Let me ask you all this...did history tell us that a Star Wars movie would obliterate the opening weekend record in DECEMBER?? How about how history told us how movies like Avatar and Frozen would have multipliers not seen since the 90s? How did history do when it came to runs like Black Panther or The Greatest Showman? Sometimes you have to know when to throw predictions limited by “history” and “historical data” out the window and just go with your gut. These are my predictions: Mon - 29M Tues - 26M Wed - 21M Thurs - 20M Fri - 42M Sat - 63M Sun -53M (158.5M second weekend)
  6. I wouldn’t say never. IW opened 100M above TFA and that movie has 1.1B. If we only look at summer movies, it opened 62M above JW and that has 1B. It’s going to be a hard road....but it’s not impossible.
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