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MJL

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About MJL

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    Indie Sensation
  • Birthday 07/12/1977

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    Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania

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  1. True, the only reason I calculated it as I did is because Deadline specifically called out the drop from OD + previews and not how we usually calculate the Saturday here
  2. Someone please tell me I’m wrong because if this is the case, with a 25% drop on Sunday (very conservative) we get: At the same % drop: 150 Friday 115.5 Saturday 86.6 Sunday 352.1 OW or for a 27% drop from full Friday: 150 Friday 109.5 Saturday 82.1 Sunday 341.6 OW
  3. Um, did you guys see this nugget from Deadline’s report???? It’s impossible, right??? “Industry estimates are already calling Endgame at the highest single day and opening day record of all-time with $140M-$150M. Estimates earlier this morning indicate a weekend take between $315M-$330M. Infinity War had a Saturday decline of 23% or $82.1M and box office analysts believe a similar ease will occur tomorrow” So.... 150 * 0.77 = 115.5 This can’t be right... Let’s do a 27% drop 150 * 0.73 = 109.5 So a similar ease brings us to roughly a 110+ Saturday????? 😵 https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fastest-film-to-hit-100m-box-office-1202601937/
  4. Um guys, I know everyone glossed over that last article from Deadline....but there is a shocking piece of data that makes me think this weekend is gonna blow up even larger than we think “Fandango officially reports today that Avengers: Endgame before opening at 6PM tonight, is officially their biggest ticket preseller of all-time with 8K showtimes already sold out coast to coast (and beyond), from Hilo, Hawaii to Newington, New Hampshire.” This is utterly huge!!! Let’s compare this with what fandango reported after IW’s preview number was released: “Fandango said the sales represented the company’s highest opening night percentage for a superhero movie. It noted that more than 2,500 showtimes sold out on Fandango before the film opened, adding that theater owners are continuing to add new showtimes throughout the weekend to meet fan demand.” links are below for both articles https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fandango-biggest-preseller-of-all-time-1202602025/amp/ https://variety.com/2018/film/news/fandango-sells-avengers-infinity-war-opening-night-tickets-1202790779/amp/
  5. So, I’ve been thinking about this. I honestly see a good scenario where Endgame beats Avatar In worldwide gross. Hear me out. Avatar’s worldwide gross is 2.788B which is 740M higher than the WW gross of IW. If we first look at China, with an OW of 300M+, a lot of people in the China thread feel the final gross (based on the high Maoyan and Douban scores) will be around 550-600M. If we only go with 550M, this represents a 200M increase from IW. This brings us down to 540M away from Avatar. Next, let’s look at the Domestic gross. I feel it’s a foregone conclusion that Endgame is going to open much larger than IW. With this being the case combined with the extraordinary reviews coming from critics, I don’t see how we don’t get at least a 100M total domestic gross increase over IW to around 780M (if not more). This brings us 440M from Avatar. Finally, let’s look at the remaining worldwide territories. IW ran in 52 foreign territories excluding China and grossed 1.01B from those countries. This was an increase of 300M from what AoU did in 2015. Now, obviously it’s only been a year between Endgame and IW verses the 3 years between IW and AoU, but even giving Endgame a 100M increase due to a growing fan base from last year, we are looking at approximately a 30-35% increase on top of this needed to beat Avatar. Based on how pre-sales have been crazy in almost every country we’ve seen, I would say there is a strong chance we might have a new worldwide record gross when all is said and done.
  6. Well, our former home at BOM just drank the juice!! https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4506 This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated throughout the week as new details are released, including Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning. Avengers: Endgame - $300.0 M The Curse of La Llorona - $10.5 M Shazam! - $9.1 M Captain Marvel - $7.3 M Breakthrough - $6.1 M Dumbo - $3.8 M Little - $3.8 M Missing Link - $2.4 M Pet Sematary - $2.3 M Us - $1.9 M
  7. I agree it will surpass the PTA record and if you look at just the numbers, it’s has a chance to blow by 300M (although slim). As I mentioned, TFA OW PTA adjusts to 62.25k. Multiply that by the 4600 theater count and we get 286M. That’s just by having the same capacity as TFA at the higher theater count and not exceeding it!!!
  8. Very good contribution by @Shawn on how it will be hard to hit 300M. He is wrong though about the last part quoted. He mentioned the 59.9k PTA for TFA and said getting to 65k needed would be tough but didn’t mention that TFA PTA adjusts to 62.2k so it’s not as hard as it seems. Still great otherwise! “'Avengers: Endgame' is destined to smash box office records this weekend, but it won't surpass $300 million in US debut” https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/04/24/avengers-endgame-box-office-records-wont-include-300-million-debut.html “ However, even with a record number of presale tickets and additional showings, "Endgame" probably won't earn much more than the predicted range. Although some have speculated that the highly anticipated film could reach or surpass the $300 million mark, it's not likely. "Mathematically, it's very challenging," Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com, said.” ”Its predecessor, "Infinity War" showed in around 4,470 theaters when it was released last year and hauled in an average of $57,000 per theater, according to data from Comscore. The only other film to have a higher profit average per theater was "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," which took in around $59,900 per theater in 2015. "The Force Awakens" played in 4,100 locations during its debut and hauled in a total of $247.9 million in its first weekend. However, even if "Endgame" were to earn $60,000 per theater during its debut, it would only garner $276 million for its debut. This would be a huge feat for the film, but puts it $24 million shy of the $300 million mark. Theaters would have to average more than $65,000 each in order for "Endgame" to come close to hitting this mark.”
  9. This is is how bonkers it’s going in China: “At around 4 p.m. Beijing time, Endgame had accounted for an astonishing 99.1 percent share of all movie tickets sold in China for the day.” https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/avengers-endgame-track-100m-china-opening-day-1204309
  10. 37 reviews up on RT 36 fresh / 1 rotten 97% (go to reviews to see them, RT doesn’t have a score yet)
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