-
Posts
487 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Everything posted by MJL
-
Um, did you guys see this nugget from Deadline’s report???? It’s impossible, right??? “Industry estimates are already calling Endgame at the highest single day and opening day record of all-time with $140M-$150M. Estimates earlier this morning indicate a weekend take between $315M-$330M. Infinity War had a Saturday decline of 23% or $82.1M and box office analysts believe a similar ease will occur tomorrow” So.... 150 * 0.77 = 115.5 This can’t be right... Let’s do a 27% drop 150 * 0.73 = 109.5 So a similar ease brings us to roughly a 110+ Saturday????? 😵 https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fastest-film-to-hit-100m-box-office-1202601937/
-
Um guys, I know everyone glossed over that last article from Deadline....but there is a shocking piece of data that makes me think this weekend is gonna blow up even larger than we think “Fandango officially reports today that Avengers: Endgame before opening at 6PM tonight, is officially their biggest ticket preseller of all-time with 8K showtimes already sold out coast to coast (and beyond), from Hilo, Hawaii to Newington, New Hampshire.” This is utterly huge!!! Let’s compare this with what fandango reported after IW’s preview number was released: “Fandango said the sales represented the company’s highest opening night percentage for a superhero movie. It noted that more than 2,500 showtimes sold out on Fandango before the film opened, adding that theater owners are continuing to add new showtimes throughout the weekend to meet fan demand.” links are below for both articles https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fandango-biggest-preseller-of-all-time-1202602025/amp/ https://variety.com/2018/film/news/fandango-sells-avengers-infinity-war-opening-night-tickets-1202790779/amp/
-
I’m surprised everyone is lowballing (in my opinion) next weekend and the legs on IW. Yes, history says it should fall to 100-110M next weekend. Yes, history says that it should only get around a 2.5 - 2.7 multiplier for a total in the 600-700M range. Let me ask you all this...did history tell us that a Star Wars movie would obliterate the opening weekend record in DECEMBER?? How about how history told us how movies like Avatar and Frozen would have multipliers not seen since the 90s? How did history do when it came to runs like Black Panther or The Greatest Showman? Sometimes you have to know when to throw predictions limited by “history” and “historical data” out the window and just go with your gut. These are my predictions: Mon - 29M Tues - 26M Wed - 21M Thurs - 20M Fri - 42M Sat - 63M Sun -53M (158.5M second weekend)
-
Daily Numbers | Thursday 22nd Feb. '18 | Black Panther 14.3 million
MJL replied to MaxAggressor's topic in Numbers and Data
Just reposting what I said a few days ago for posterity -
Tuesday Numbers (Feb 20): BP- 20.9 PR - 1.9 FSF - 1.6
MJL replied to Porthos's topic in Numbers and Data
Even with the inflated weekend it should still follow this pattern. If we compare BP’s Tuesday to other MCU Monday’s box office after drops it looks like this: BP - 21M Tuesday Avengers - 18.9M Monday (Tuesday dropped lower than this even) AoU: 13.2M Monday (dropped more on Tuesday again) Civil War - 13.3M Monday (13.7 Tuesday) So BP is in much better shape going towards the weekend than these to start. The weekends for these all burned off massive demand and you could make a point that since BP had in essence a 4 day weekend versus a traditional 3 day weekend for the others....BP should actually be below the others in daily gross (4 days to burn off demand instead of 3). It’s not though...which means it’s holding much better. Better weekday holds = better weekend holds in most cases. -
Tuesday Numbers (Feb 20): BP- 20.9 PR - 1.9 FSF - 1.6
MJL replied to Porthos's topic in Numbers and Data
I think people are underestimating what BP is going to do this weekend and in total. If we look at most MCU movies released outside of summer (June thru Aug), the increase for the 2nd Friday coming from Thursday is generally greater than 130%. If we apply this to BP it looks as such: Tues: 21M Wed: 15.5M (-26%) Thurs: 14.2M (-9%) Friday: 32.66M (+130%) Saturday: 48.99M (+50%) Sunday: 34.3M (-30%) 2nd Weekend: 116M And this is actually being generous with drops. If I was more aggressive, we could be looking at a 120-130M weekend