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MJL

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Everything posted by MJL

  1. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-06-17&p=.htm Father's Day in 2012. Look at the top 2 (both on their second weekend)
  2. I don't think we could put a max on it because of a Thursday number. Now, it's not going to increase like a May or July opener...but the increases from other June openers are in play. From about 40% low end to 90% high. I'm personally thinking it will be between 65-75%
  3. Exactly...that's why I sai it would be bad for a TDK type weekend because it's not mid summer and thankfully there should be a mich bigger increase....just like there is no way in hell we are getting Avengers increase (tho I wou love it). I went back to 2012 to get the Prometheus comparison (even tho this should increase better on the weekend because it's more family friendly). It puts it at 112m
  4. If it had an Avengers increase from an 18m Friday we would be looking at a 150m weekend lol. Avatar would be toast! Only if this was May and actually possible
  5. From an 18m weekend, TDK type increases would give it: 25.4m Fri (41.1% increase) 30.9m Sat (21.7% increase) 25.9 Sun (16.3% decrease) So only an 82.2m weekend
  6. Why TDK? It had an awful increase on Fri and Sat and an ok drop on Sun
  7. I'm praying for a Prometheus 2nd weekend for JW. If it mirrors it from an 18m thurs...we are looking at 31.2m Fri 42.2m Sat 38.8m Sun 112.2m 2nd Weekend
  8. Look at Prometheus back in 2012. On it's second weekend it went up 73% on Fri, up another 35% on Sat and dropped only 8% on Father's Day
  9. Tho if the amazing happens and it gets to 115m...the 3rd weekend record may be in play. I doubt it but that's about the min this weekend I feel would allow it
  10. I think everyone is thinking it will drop under 100m this weekend because of how big it opened and thinking it burned off a lot of demand. Well, let me pose this. Does a 55.7% drop on Monday (ok, it could have been spillover), 4% drop Tues and a 19.2% drop Wed show any indication it's been slowing down or that everyone just rushed out to see it on OW (like DH2) and that's that? So far it's been holding really well for June and I don see why it should start holding anything less then great now. My prediction Thurs - 18.1 (-9.1%) Fri - 29.87 (+65%) Sat - 40.32 (+35%) Sun - 36.29 (-10%) Weekend- 106.5m
  11. I couldn't say it much better myself. Will it make it past Avatar? Probably not, but most people didn't see Avatar surpassing Titanic
  12. I hope it's not much different then JW. Often when studios throw a lot more money at a sequel...they focus too much on the effects and CG and much less on the story and the parts of the original movie that made it special.
  13. I'm hoping it pulls a TS3 and follows a sub 5% drop on Tues with a 10-11% drop today
  14. I think this is going to fall much less then people expect on Wed. Let's look at the first Wed drops of the top 6 June movies: MoS: -21.8% TS3: -11% (following a -3% drop on Tues) RotF: -19% AoE: -25.7% (following staying about even on Tues) PoA: -5.1% MonstersU: -15.3% Low drops are definitely possible
  15. I agree to an extent, but there also other factors on why a movie "could" break out. There's vacations in summer that take away from an OW that offset December being a busy time, people are already in malls where movie theaters are located making it easy to combine with their day, and winter is usually horrible outside and outside of holiday stuff...there is much less to do on a day off
  16. So if this is "average" then anything 17m+ means around a 30m Friday (I hope)
  17. I agree. It's like putting the cart before the horse for studios. There are no large OW in December (even tho it's very similar to summer with kids being out of school) because studios generally don't put tentpoles that you must "rush out to see" in December. And the reason they do it is because they haven't seen a movie do it before. It's a vicious cycle. There is NOTHING intrinsically about the month of December that eliminates the possibility of a 150m+ OW. It's just there isn't a movie to rush out during that time. That's why we get long legs and crazy drops. Studios have movies there which aren't "rush out to see known property" but are more "if this is an amazing movie, they'll rush out sometime later"
  18. Plus you have some schools that go with m strike and get out later because of it. Tho, as school get out, it slowly puts less emphasis on weekends and more on weekdays. Being in the middle of that switchover "can" soften day to day drops. Look at it this way. If it was mid summer...a movie would have 100% of it's demographic to draw upon from one day to the next (discounting people who have work obviously). In very late May to late June....it has an increasing % of it's demographic because of school letting out. Can it be measured and predicted against? No, but that's where wild guesstimations come into play.
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