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spizzer

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spizzer last won the day on March 23 2012

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  1. IM (minus previews) will be around 3.3, which is ahead of Avengers with a 3.0, though that is to be expected with Thursday previews vs. Midnights.
  2. There is little incentive to do so. The industry standard at this point is to revise numbers over the course of the weekend, and the larger public only hones-in on the box office for big weekends like this. What is the financial incentive to have major BO guys for these media/news companies? Nothing to be gained really - the BO enthusiast crowd like us is pretty small in the grand scheme of things. No one else cares enough.
  3. 39.0M Thurs 67.0M Fri (+71.8%) 83.0M Sat (+23.8%) So Saturday jump indeed ended up >20% 70.0M Sun (-15.5%) Still could be softer but 70M is the number. 259.0M Weekend. Will come in just under the 265M target. 220.0M Fri-Sun and with strong reaction, should pull a 3X multi from there which puts it at 660 + 39M Domestic - photo finish for $700M and photo finish with Black Panther for #1 for the year. Did not see 3D/2D splits on deadline or BOM, but deadline did mention an estimated 22.5M IMAX opening / 9% of total gross (could be revised after Sunday is complete), which is lower than TFA/TLJ. Meaning this should hold its own in OW attendance arguments with TFA (both right above the 22.0M level - TDK/TA/SM3 around mid 21M).
  4. 39.0M Thurs 67.0M Fri (+71.8%) 83.0M Sat (+23.8%) So Saturday jump indeed ended up >20% 70.0M Sun (-15.5%) Still could be softer but 70M is the number. 259.0M Weekend. Will come in just under the 265M target. 220.0M Fri-Sun and with strong reaction, should pull a 3X multi from there which puts it at 660 + 39M Domestic - photo finish for $700M and photo finish with Black Panther for #1 for the year. Did not see 3D/2D splits on deadline or BOM, but deadline did mention an estimated 22.5M IMAX opening / 9% of total gross (could be revised after Sunday is complete), which is lower than TFA/TLJ. Meaning this should hold its own in OW attendance arguments with TFA (both right above the 22.0M level - TDK/TA/SM3 around mid 21M).
  5. Yup. 39.0M Thurs 68.0M Fri (+74.3%) (Empire saying figure could be 108.0M which would mean 69.0M Fri which is a 76.9% jump) 80.0M Sat (+17.6%) (With demand-level this high and massive Thursday preview, this jump could be >20%) 67.2M Sun (-16.0%) 254.2M Weekend. Sat/Sun jump/hold could be softer with spillover, and Friday could be another 1M higher which would push it into the mid 260s.
  6. Yes I am aware. And they only have gauge of walk-up business that has already occurred, not of what will occur throughout the rest of the day (and Marvel films in particular tend to trend on the stronger side for walk-ups among tentpole openers). Presales were absurdly high for even a Marvel film and a lot of that has been satisfied from the Thursday previews which were considerably higher than the next best Marvel film, but at the same time buzz/unaided awareness tracking (which I take as a proxy for was at or close to record-level, and looking at that in conjunction with presale data (and now preview gross) continues to paint a picture of record-level OW demand (ITO attendance). When Deadline is making those "predictions", their sole goal is to be the first ones to break the headline. Back when Nikki was the editor, she was never one to miss a scoop, but there was still some sense of trying to be as accurate as well. Now its just about being first.
  7. Lowballs all around for early numbers. Matinees are still closing out on the EC, late-night updates will be more telling. I see no reason for demand-level to not be at record or near-record pace for this - Friday's not going to be 56M.
  8. Nice. TFA Attendance record could be matched at 265M (with the same 3D/PLF splits). And this is Avengers ****ing Infinity War, so who says it has to stop at matching?
  9. Feels like summer 07. TFA OW ticket sales with identical 3D/IMAX/PLF splits + 2.67% annual inflation @ 2.5 years is ~264M. I think ticket sales end up being about the same for AIW (weaker previews/presales, stronger Fri-Sun/walk-ups). I expect a 265M OW (+/- 10M for varying 3D/IMAX/PLF splits). Unfortunately I won't have time to do a sellout tracker, but I will post ticket price comps for TA, AOU, TFA/RO/TLJ and anything else I have on record.
  10. Gonna quote this here instead of the thread from two weeks ago. I do still have the lists but latest update was probably December 2015 with The Force Awakens. I haven't really maintained my BO data archive much in the last couple of years. I think I made a thread for it as well (perhaps more than once).
  11. WOM seems great and demo splits indicated by deadline are somewhat favorable (M/F 50/50 but over/under 25 was 34/66). That in conjunction with the backloaded OW would suggest strong legs. For instance, it should be able to outperform Deadpool's legs and even had an additional inflation factor on OW with Valentine's Day thrown into the mix.
  12. Overestimated demand level (or result of 3D share) by ~8.5% but nearly nailed the Saturday/Sunday guidance. Sunday drop is on the softer side so my -51% for Monday may be conservative.
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