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spizzer

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spizzer last won the day on March 23 2012

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About spizzer

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  1. Thanks! Yeah I was running rough math in my head to consider if $1M at a single site was possible this weekend. Looks like the biggest sites may get around $8-900K but not quite there. Though combinations like Empire/E-Walk and the LA Trio will probably do it. I remember back in the old days E-Walk and Empire wouldn't always both play the big films together, but for this event that soft agreement seems to have been set aside. Hope one day more detailed data goes public - would love to see State/City/Theater level ticket revenue breakdowns.
  2. @RtheEnd Any commentary on specific theaters? Empire 42nd street going for a historic figure at #1 or somewhere else leading the pack? I remember for TFA the Arclight/Capitan/TCL Chinese trio in LA came out on top. Any surprises this time around?
  3. I know! We've been in the 20-23M range since SM1. Even on the high end of pricing, this will cruise past 30M. That's a substantial portion of the movie-going population for an 84-hour period. Yeah that's what I'm rooting for as well.
  4. This guy has no idea what he's talking about.
  5. In. This has been on my radar all year as a potential historic run and recent positive buzz only adds to that fuel. I think it'll blow by 400M with ease. Strong WOM films can pull an easy 8-10X multiplier from their pre-Christmas weekend (whether its OW or not - TGS/Avatar went over 10X from OW, Frozen pulled an 11.6 its 4th). 4 Quad/Family targeted Top-tier nostalgia factor Strong WOM Musical (repeat factor) Strong counter-programming with the rest of the holiday slate Growing Oscar buzz Favorable calendar (Wed opening followed by 2 5-day weekends, then only 6 Mon-Thur weekdays before another 4-day weekend) Collectively that means strong opening, strong holds over Christmas/New-Year holidays, and then great extension/retention factor post-holidays.
  6. There is little incentive to do so. The industry standard at this point is to revise numbers over the course of the weekend, and the larger public only hones-in on the box office for big weekends like this. What is the financial incentive to have major BO guys for these media/news companies? Nothing to be gained really - the BO enthusiast crowd like us is pretty small in the grand scheme of things. No one else cares enough.
  7. 39.0M Thurs 67.0M Fri (+71.8%) 83.0M Sat (+23.8%) So Saturday jump indeed ended up >20% 70.0M Sun (-15.5%) Still could be softer but 70M is the number. 259.0M Weekend. Will come in just under the 265M target. 220.0M Fri-Sun and with strong reaction, should pull a 3X multi from there which puts it at 660 + 39M Domestic - photo finish for $700M and photo finish with Black Panther for #1 for the year. Did not see 3D/2D splits on deadline or BOM, but deadline did mention an estimated 22.5M IMAX opening / 9% of total gross (could be revised after Sunday is complete), which is lower than TFA/TLJ. Meaning this should hold its own in OW attendance arguments with TFA (both right above the 22.0M level - TDK/TA/SM3 around mid 21M).
  8. 39.0M Thurs 67.0M Fri (+71.8%) 83.0M Sat (+23.8%) So Saturday jump indeed ended up >20% 70.0M Sun (-15.5%) Still could be softer but 70M is the number. 259.0M Weekend. Will come in just under the 265M target. 220.0M Fri-Sun and with strong reaction, should pull a 3X multi from there which puts it at 660 + 39M Domestic - photo finish for $700M and photo finish with Black Panther for #1 for the year. Did not see 3D/2D splits on deadline or BOM, but deadline did mention an estimated 22.5M IMAX opening / 9% of total gross (could be revised after Sunday is complete), which is lower than TFA/TLJ. Meaning this should hold its own in OW attendance arguments with TFA (both right above the 22.0M level - TDK/TA/SM3 around mid 21M).
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