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Q: What is the club's target? A: DP2 hits 2.50x multi (or more) by going over 313,767,882 even by $1. So the club succeeds if DP2 reaches 313,767,883 dom (click) Q: Why this club? A: There's gloom and doom about DP2's holds even though it's early. I don't see DP2 missing 305 dom and then looking at how POTC5 performed last year off it's MD 4-day OW, feel 2.50 multiplier for DP2 is achievable. POTC5 added 1.2x it's MD 4-day to it's cume (94/78.5), 1.3x without previews. But apart from the Friday which was OD for POTC5 and had a Thu previews boost, DP2 will start matching POTC5's dailies soon despite being later into the run. Legs off the 2nd weekend are almost always better than legs off the OW. I think adding 1.7 times the MD 4-day will be difficult but achievable for DP2 which would take it over 314 dom. Q: Why right now, during the 2nd weekend? A: Debate around legs kick in only after a few days of release usually looking at 2nd weekend holds as people are giving the first weekday numbers a pass. This is a multiplier club and the target derived from 2.50x Q: When does the club close? A: INs and OUTs will be classified based on when folks give their final decision. First Deadline : When the 3rd weekend actuals come out. Second Deadline : When the 4th weekend actuals come out. Update: Eveeryone in the list submited before the First Deadline and there were no new entries after that. IN a2k MrGlass2 MattW Baumer RealLyre Pure Spirit OUT Thanos Legion (+- 10M of the club's target) Zakiyyah6 (~305) NannerManCan GraceRandolph Asyulus
I have been experiencing a lot of way-off and too distant predictions all over superheroes. First of all, the WW predictions are very wide for Deadpool, some saying it flops due to R-rating, some saying it will become a hit due to buzz. Second, some said BvS could flop due to Zack Snyder possibly ruined it, and said the third trailer is terrible. Third, there were complaints about the teaser trailer, which people deemed it terrible, but its views could recover the WW BO. Fourth, there is a lot of talk about X-Men Apocalypse, it will be successful due to the villain itself and the trailer, but some commented it doesn't have Hugh Jackman/Wolverine. Fifth, Suicide Squad is poised to be a surprise hit, but the term "Suicide Squad" is unfamily-friendly to children, there has also been predicts above $1b WW. Sixth, the Gambit has an excellent star, but due to script issues, this seems like in danger. Lastly, Strange is very hard to predict, some says low, but some says it high. How good/accurate are you at predicting WW number tally? There will be 7 super movies to predict WW. Closest predict to actual WW wins. 8 if Sinister Six included, but it will most likely be indefinitely delayed or canceled. CATEGORIES/MOVIES TO PREDICT WW: - Deadpool - Batman v. Superman - Civil War - Apocalypse - Suicide Squad - Gambit - Doctor Strange Entries/WW predicts for all 7 categories must be posted by February 11, 2016 , day before the WW rollout for Deadpool. Beyond that, you can't predict anymore those 7, goodbye. Once you have predicted for first time, you can't change your predict in order to avoid confusion. Changing it will be declined. YOUR WW predicts should only contain one decimal place, two decimal places, then it will be rounded off to tens. No decimal places for WW predicts are okay, but it should not be exactly the same as others predicts. ALSO, use millions (m) only, don't use billions (b) so there will be no confusions. For example, If you predicted $246,586,634, then it will become $246.6m. If you predicted $1.42534b, then it will become $1425.3m. NOTES: 1st place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Batman v. Superman, Civil War, Apocalypse, Suicide Squad) gets a FREE gold account upgrade. 2nd place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Batman v. Superman, Civil War, Apocalypse, Suicide Squad) gets a FREE premium account upgrade. 3rd place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Batman v. Superman, Civil War, Apocalypse, Suicide Squad) gets a FREE silver account upgrade. 4th place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Batman v. Superman, Civil War, Apocalypse, Suicide Squad) gets a 5 batarangs, batmobile, power of flight and superspeed, Captain America's shield, Apocalypse and Joker cosplay costume. 1st place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Deadpool, Gambit, Doctor Strange) gets a FREE premium account upgrade. 2nd place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Deadpool, Gambit, Doctor Strange) gets a FREE silver account upgrade. 3rd place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Deadpool, Gambit, Doctor Strange) gets a FREE copper account upgrade. 4th place Winner at each of THESE CATEGORIES (Deadpool, Gambit, Doctor Strange) gets a dual UZI, Gambit costume and magic powers. You can only have ONE upgrade. TWO UPGRADES IS NOT ALLOWED. Period. However, if you already have an account upgrade, you can give it to your friends or enemies. IMPORTANT: You can't have a same WW predict as others for each category. For example, Person A predicted $245m WW for Movie A, then Person B predicted $245m WW for Movie A aswell, then, the Person B's predict will strictly increase by $500,000. In an event of after strictly increasing WW predict of Person B's to $245.5m WW, where Person C already predicted $245.5m WW before, then Person B' predict gets increased to $246m WW. And so on. Movie A is an example. AGAIN: Once you have predicted for first time, you can't change your predict in order to avoid confusion. Changing it will be declined. You may choose which ones do you want to predict first, leaving the rest TBP (To Be predicted). Hence, if you haven't predicted that a movie before, you still have chance to predict it, but until Feb 3, 2016. For example, a person is 2nd at both Civil War and Suicide Squad, then he/she only get one premium account upgrade. For example, a person is 1st at both Deadpool and Gambit, then he/she only get one premium account upgrade. For example, a person is 1st at Batman v. Superman, but 2nd at Civil war, then he/she only get one gold account upgrade. Winners will be declared if EACH superhero movie ended its WW run. Numbers of BOM will serve as an OFFICIAL numbers for this contest. I'm going to start this extravaganza (in US dollars): Deadpool : 132m Batman v. Superman : 1316m Civil War : 1335m Apocalypse : 878m Suicide Squad : 952m Gambit : 367m Doctor Strange : 579m
There're many well-done marketing cases during the years, but it seems none of them really used internet, or acknowledged internet as the critical medium, the way Deadpool did. What most films today do is, you put up a movie website, a social-media account page, you throw a bunch of trailers and clips on youtube, and that's it. Well you can't call it wrong, and frankly that worked just as well as people expected. But internet is much more powerful than that, and people behind Deadpool are the ones that not only acknowledge that, but also get a great use of that. We have Deadpool posting a lot of vids in which he jokes about what is happening in our real life. That somehow makes Deadpool feel like a real-life vlogger, which really helps making this weird-looking character more relatable. We also have Deadpool posting his wacky photoshopped pics in which he acted like a wachy, and that makes it for the audiennce to feel so much closer because acting like a wacky and posting wacky pics are a big part of the internet culture. And of cause that brilliant emoji billboard that totally connects internet with real-life. Of cause, Deadpool is a very unique character and the same type of marketing strategy can not be simply applied to another movie, but what it tells us is that internet can be in much greater usage than how studios are using it right now, and we all shall be glad that Ryan Reynolds (he's also one of the producers) and all the others behind this film really took it into a deeper thought and pulled off such a fresh and engaging marketing strategy.
Water Bottle's Monthly Movie Guide January 2017 February 5, 2016 The Choice (Adaption) Genre: Romance Movie Stars: None Minor Stars: Teresa Palmer (Star Power: 0.87), Tom Wilkinson (0.46) Director: Ross Katz (Director Power: 0.00) Writers: Bryan Sipe (Writer Power: 0.00) Important Producers: Peter Safran (Producer Power: 1.19) Logline: Travis Parker falls in love with his brand new neighbor Gabby Holland (Teresa Palmer). WB's Box Office Prediction: 11.44/27.51: A confusing marketing campaign (I saw a trailer and had no real idea what the movie was about) and the recent box office performance of Nicholas Sparks doesn't inspire much confidence. I believe the only people who will choose to see this movie are the Sparks die-hard fans. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 38%: Nicholas Sparks movies simply don't get good reviews. That seems to be a rule and there's nothing whatsoever to suggest that the Choice is going to break that mold to get a fresh from the site. Hail, Caesar! (Original) Genre: Comedy Movie Stars: George Clooney (1.02), Ralph Fiennes (Star Power: 1.16), Jonah Hill (Star Power: 1.44), Scarlett Johannson (Star Power: 1.24), Channing Tatum (Star Power: 1.22) Minor Stars: Josh Brolin (Star Power: 0.85), Frances McDormand (Star Power: 0.61), Tilda Swinton (Star Power: 0.47) Director: The Coen Brothers (Director Power: 0.57) Writers: Joel & Ethan Coen (Collective Writer Power: .50) Important Producers: Joel & Ethan Coen (Producer Power: 0.55), Tim Bevan (Producer Power: 0.37), Eric Fellner (Producer Power: 0.41) Logline: Eddie Mannix (Josh Brolin) is a Hollywood fixer who has to collect $100,000 to rescue movie star Baird Whitlock (George Clooney) after a kidnapping. WB's Box Office Prediction: 36.33/96.84: This is a very difficult movie to predict since there is a lot of star power and the Coen brothers do have a fanbase BUT it is a comedy that in it's second weekend will face not one, not two, but three different comedies. This will mean it's second weekend drop will be harsher than normal and I believe that will stop the moving from hitting the $100 million mark. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 66%: The Coen Brothers are great directors who have made some might fine films but they aren't perfect and this movie got stuck in February for a reason. I imagine this means the movie is good but it's not great. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (Adaptation) Genre: Horror Comedy Movie Stars: None Minor Stars: Lena Headey (Star Power: 0.55) Director: Burr Steers (Director Power: 0.63) Writers: Burr Steers (Writer Power: 0.94) Important Producers: Natalie Portman (Producer Power: 0.49) Logline: Elizabeth Bannet and Mr. Darcy must fight off zombies as they discover their romantic feelings toward each other. WB's Box Office Prediction: 7.96/17.03: Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter opened to $16 million and made a total of $37 million in June. This suggest there's a limited audience for this kind of movie. There's plenty of other comedies coming out this month so this movie suffers a lot of competition. I don't see this doing well at all. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 49%: Reviews have started to come in and I have a feeling it's going to stay negative. If it's lucky it'll stay within the 50% range: one that suggests the movie is mediocre instead of bad. This has to be better than the Nicholas Sparks movie, right? February 12, 2016 Deadpool (Franchise) Genre: Superhero Action Comedy Movie Stars: None Minor Stars: Ryan Reynolds (Star Power: 0.92) Director: Tim Miller (Director Power: 0.00) Writers: Paul Wernick & Rhett Reese (Collective Writer Power: 1.50) Important Producers: Simon Kinberg (Producer Power: 2.53) and Lauren Schuler Donner (Producer Power: 1.47) Logline: Wade Wilson (Ryan Reynolds) is a mercenary who is left with superpowers after an experiment. He hunts down the man who nearly destroyed his life. WB's Box Office Prediction: 57.86/158.47: The X-Men franchise is pretty popular and while Deadpool could have benefitted from more high-profile X-men characters, there's no reason to believe this movie won't do well. A strong marketing campaign definably sets Deadpool apart even if it's R rating will limit it to adults, teenagers and apathetic parents. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 41%: Ryan Reynolds so far appears to be cursed to appear in only badly recieved superhero movies (remember Green Lantern? X-Men Origins: Wolverine?) and the humor frankly seems juvenile. That might make it true to the comic but that doesn't mean it will make it a good movie. How to be Single (Adaptation) Genre: Romantic Comedy Movie Stars: Leslie Mann (Star Power: 1.18), Rebel Wilson (1.68) Minor Stars: None Director: Christian Dittier (Director Power: 0.00) Writers: Dana Fox, Abby Kohn, and Marc Silverstein (Collective Writer Power: 3.31) Important Producers: None Logline: Sex and the City but with Rebel Wilson and Leslie Mann? WB's Box Office Prediction: 52.35/176.79: While Deadpool is appealing to men, How to be Single will take the women. Rebel Wilson will add yet another hit to her resume and introduce Alison Brie to a larger movie-going audience. I feel like this is a good counter-programing move to the male-oriented comedies. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 40%: It's February, the director isn't promising, and Dana Fox has a habit of writing hits that are poorly received. This is all to suggest that How to be Single will not be a well received movie. Zoolander 2 (Franchise) Genre: Comedy Movie Stars: Ben Stiller (Star Power: 1.46), Owen Wilson (Star Power: 1.39), Will Ferrell (Star Power: 1.42), Kristen Wiig (Star Power: 1.01) Minor Stars: Penelope Cruz (Star Power: 0.52) Director: Ben Stiller (Director Power: 0.95) Writers: John Hamburg, Ben Stiller, Nick Stoller, and Justin Theroux (Collective Writer Power: .57) Important Producers: Ben Stiller (Producer Power: 0.95), Scott Rudin (Producer Power: .69), Clayton Townsend (Producer Power: 0.98) Logline: Derek Zoolander (Ben Stiller) re-unites with Interpol to take down an assassin of famous musical celebrities. WB's Box Office Prediction: 26.13/97.40: You know what's in right? Superhero movies. It's facing Deadpool and that's going to hurt Zoolander 2-especially since the first movie was only a modest hit in theaters. Will Ferrell has only gotten more famous since the first movie and the first movie remains popular so it should still increase from the first movie's adjusted gross. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 55%: The first movie had a good, if not spectacular, reception. It's hard to make a satisfying comedy sequel: it's almost impossible to do that when more than ten years have passed. It does have a talented team and Ben Stiller is a good directo so expect a mild reaction to this. February 19, 2016 Race (Original) Genre: Biographical Sports Drama Movie Stars: Jason Sudeikis (Star Power: 1.30) Minor Stars: None Director: Stephen Hopkins (Director Power: 0.00) Writers: Joe Sharpnel & Anna Waterhouse (Collective Writer Power: 0.00) Important Producers: None Logline: Jesse Owens overcomes racism as he competes at the 1936 Berlin Games. WB's Box Office Prediction: 11.28/31.07: This should do well for a sports movie as it has Americans beating Hitler at the Berlin Games while being an inspirational story about a black man who struggled with the times he lived in by excelling. It's a great American story. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 33%: The writers and the director give me pause behind-the-scenes as well as the lack of a strong producer. A February release suggests that Focus Features doesn't have a lot of confidence in the final product. Risen (Adaptation) Genre: Epic Historical Drama Movie Stars: None Minor Stars: None Director: Kevin Reynolds (Director Power: 0.94) Writers: Kevin Reynolds & Paul Aiello (Collective Writer Power: 0.14) Important Producers: Patrick Aiello (Producer Power: 0.24) Logline: Clavius must investigate the mad claim of a risen Jewish messiah while having to squash an uprising in Jerusalem. WB's Box Office Prediction: 11.07/39.99: Christian movies have done well recently and a story that concentrates on Jesus' resurrection should play well with that crowd for a decent box office gross. Alas, this spiritual sequel isn't an actual sequel to the Passion of the Christ otherwise this could do a lot better. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 43%: Alas, Christian audiences don't exactly hold these kind of movies to high standards. With Easter a month away from the release of this movie (being the exact right time to release this movie) suggests to me Colombia Pictures doesn't have confidence in this movie. The Witch (Original) Genre: Horror Movie Stars: None Minor Stars: None Director: Robert Eggers (Director Power: 0.00) Writers: Robert Eggers (Writer Power: 0.00) Important Producers: None Logline: A Puritan family living alone at the edge of New England fear their daughter is a witch as they suffer an attack from an unknown evil. WB's Box Office Prediction: 0.27/12.50: This movie will likely have a limited release before it expands. The movie should more than recoup it's $1 million budget as it builds up word of mouth. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 91%: It got a great reception already at Sundance and the marketing looks amazing. I'll be shocked if this movie turns out to have a mixed or negative critical reception. More exciting is this points to a strong directing career for Robert Eggers. February 26, 2016 Eddie the Eagle (Original) Genre: Comedy Sports Drama Movie Stars: Hugh Jackman (Star Power: 1.75) Minor Stars: Taron Egerton (Star Power: 0.90), Christopher Walken (Star Power: 0.56) Director: Dexter Fletcher (Director Power: 0.00) Writers: Sean Macaulay and Simon Kelton (Collective Writer Power: 0.00) Important Producers: Matthew Vaughn (Producer Power: 0.49) Logline: A totally nonathletic guy makes it his life mission to represent the UK in Olympic ski jumping because why not? WB's Box Office Prediction: 12.75/45.59: It's hard to imagine Americans being interested in this specific story nor has the marketing for this movie been impressive or even noticeable. I'm not sure there's a lot of awareness in this movie which will lead to a soft opening. Some word of mouth might give it good legs. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 35%: Brand new writers and a February release makes me skeptical that this movie is that funny. Even though early reviews are promising, this doesn't just strike me as one that's going to end with a positive rotten tomatoes score. Gods of Egypt (Original) Genre: Fantasy Movie Stars: Brenton Thwaites (Star Power: 1.47), Gerard Butler (Star Power: 1.15) Minor Stars: Chadwick Boseman (Star Power: 0.87), Geoffrey Rush (Star Power: 0.85) Director: Alex Proyas (Director Power: 1.00) Writers: Matt Sazama and Burk Sharpless (Collective Writer Power: 2.96) Important Producers: None Logline: Bek (Brenton Thwaites) unites with Horus to stop Set (Gerard Butler) from ruling the Egyptian empire. WB's Box Office Prediction: 42.96/121.00: I'm not sure that this is going to start a new franchise but I do feel like Gods of Egypt could become a low-end blockbuster hit. I don't feel like general audiences care about the whitewashing and this does have a lot of action plus people do like mythology. In an era where Marvel has turned Thor into a franchise, this could be a sign that there is an audience for this. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 50%: The movie itself might not be that good-and I feel like critics are really going to punish this movie for whitewashing even though this is a systemic problem not a movie problem. This isn't to say this movie would get a positive reaction if it wasn't for the whitewashing just that critics would be even harsher on the movie that they would already be. Triple 9 (Original) Genre: Crime Thriller Movie Stars: None Minor Stars: Casey Affleck (Star Power: 0.71), Chiwetel Ejiofor (Star Power: 0.83), Anthony Mackie (Star Power: 0.96), Woody Harrelson (Star Power: 0.94), Kate Winslet (Star Power: 0.86) Director: John Hillcoat (Director Power: 0.21) Writers: Matt Cook (Star Power: 0.00) Important Producers: John Hillcoat (Producer Power: 1.95) Logline: A group of corrupt cops must kill a cop (Casey Affleck) to distract the police while a group of criminals pull off an impossible heist. WB's Box Office Prediction: 13.59/48.61: I don't feel like marketing has been that strong in this movie plus it's premise is a complicated sell. This feels like a movie that will fall under the cracks of the audience's attention. WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 50%: A February release probably means this former Blacklist script didn't translate to a good movie. It doesn't help that I haven't really heard anything about this movie. It does help that Hillcoat does make well received movies so Triple 9 probably isn't a bad movie: just a difficult one to market when it will only get a mixed reaction. Major February Films: Original Films: 6 (50.00%) Adaption: 4 (33.33%) Franchise: 2 (16.67%) Total Films: 12 Films Major 2016 Films: Original Films: 12 (52.17%) Adaption: 7 (30.43%) Franchise: 4 (17.39%) Total Films: 23 Films