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Found 10 results

  1. SCENE: @4815162342, @Mulder @aabattery, @DAR, and a couple dozen other members of the SW BOT Fraternity sit glumly around the floor. Upended beer bottles and torn ticket stubs litter the room. Depression and gloom rule as folks mumble about various topics. Finally OUR HERO has had enough. Porthos (standing up): HEY!! What's this lying around shit?! Numbers: Well, what the hell we s'posed to do, ya moron?! aabattery: Star Wars' over, man. Solo dropped the big one. Porthos: What?!? Over? Did you say "over"? Porthos: NOTHING is over until WE decide it is! *The Imperial March starts playing triumphantly in the background* Porthos: Was it over when baumer's "Blackhat above 100m in China" club bombed on BOT? Hell no! Mulder (whispering) @baumer? DAR: Forget it, he's rolling. Porthos: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough... Porthos (pauses as he looks for the crowd to answer him) Porthos: ...the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go! C'mon!!!! YAHHHH!!!! Porthos runs out, alone. *The Imperial March theme fades away* Every single member continues to look beat and downcast. Porthos walks back into the thread. Porthos: What the fuck happened to the BOT I used to know? *The Imperial March starts up again* Porthos: Where's the spirit? Porthos: Where's the guts? Huh?!? Porthos: This could be the greatest club of our lives, but you're gonna let it be the worst. Porthos: "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Porthos, we might get laughed at." Porthos: Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Porthos: Frozen 2's a dead film! Porthos: Sonic? Dead! Porthos: Juuumannji–– Mulder: Dead! Mulder: Porthos is right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. Mulder slowly gets up. Mulder: We gotta start this club. Mulder: Now, we could deal with conventional arguments that could take hundreds of posts and lead to dozens of threadbans. Mulder: Un-huh. No, in this case I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid club be done on somebody's part. Porthos: We're just the posters to do it. aabattery and DAR look at each other and then stand up DAR: Let's do it. Porthos: LET'S DO IT!! JOIN!! JOIN!!! JOIN!!! Porthos continues to scream as the members of the SW BOT Fraternity start to get up and charge to engage the rest of the forum... FADE TO BLACK
  2. Highest grossing Decembers of all time(Calendar gross): December 2017: $1,323,303,767 December 2015: $1,305,001,668 December 2016: $1,190,800,549 December 2018: $1,069,735,535 December 2009: $1,066,704,502 The Rise of Skywalker: First, let’s find the December to rest of run legs for Star Wars movies(Total gross/December gross). TFA: 1.437 (14 days in December) Rogue One: 1.303 (16 days) TLJ: 1.199 (17 days) TRoS will have 12 days. The lowest of them all. And just like TFA, its third weekend will be in January, so it should have a high multiplier here. Now, let’s find the OW to first 12 day gross multiplier(First 12 days gross/OW). TFA: 2.423 Rogue One: 2.198 TLJ: 1.924 Now, the percent of schools out on the first Monday: TFA: 77% Rogue One: 48% TLJ: 31% The first Monday of TRoS is on December 23rd, so I think it's safe to assume that at least 90%, maybe even 95%, of schools will be out for OW. That means that Sunday should have a pretty soft drop. But at the same time, it means that many families will be travelling during this time. Not to mention, Christmas is so close to release that some families may opt to wait until then to go see it. I think that the OW will be slightly less than TLJ at 215M. And because its situation is most like TFA, I think it will have multipliers closest to it. So, I'll pit the OW to first 12 day multiplier at 2.323, and the December to rest of run legs at 1.46 because of its calendar situation. That gives us a December gross of 500M, and a total gross of 730M. Which both seem very reasonable to me. Jumanji 3: Jumanji opens the weekend before TRoS, and will only have Frozen 2 to really compete with. So, this time around it will have a whole other week, and more recognition/excitement for it at the beginning. I think it will make about 350M, and play much like the Journey to the Center of the Earth movies. The first Journey movie made 65% of its gross in the first 3 weeks, and the second one made 76% of its gross in the same time period. Jumanji 2 made 63% of its gross in the first 3 weeks(not counting Dec 8). So if it increases by 10% like Journey, then Jumanji 3 will make 73% in the first 3 weeks. For a total of 256M. But the first 3 weeks aren’t all in December, so I’ll take off 6M for the extra couple days. 250M Frozen 2: Frozen 2 will obviously not have the legs of the first, but it should still have great legs. And with a Nov 22 release, it will make a hefty portion in December. Currently, I’m predicting a 130M OW, 55M weekdays, and 70M the second weekend, with 16M of that on Dec 1. I am gonna use Ralph Breaks the Internet as a comparison because it had 10 days in November, and is also a sequel to a well known WDAS film. Frozen 2 only has 9 days in November, but it has one more weekend day so I think it'll balance out. In 10 days, Ralph made 99.3M. In December, Ralph made 78.3M, about 79% of the November gross. I currently have a 239M November run for Frozen 2. So, using that 79%, we get 189M for December. Ralph made 88% of its gross from November and December, so using that for Frozen 2, we'd end up with a total of 485M. Which is realistic to me. General Analysis for the rest of the movies: On average from 2013-2018, the top 10 movies of December made up about 80% of the total gross. To become the highest grossing December, $1.324B needs to be made. 80% of that is $1.059B. From TRoS, Jumanji, and Frozen alone, we're at $939M. Which means the other 7 need to make 120M, or an average of $17.1M. If 2019 is going to be more top heavy than on average, which I think it will, let's say the top 10 will make 85% of the gross(Current highest is 83.7% in 2015). With that, $1.125B needs to be made from the top 10. Therefore, we would need the remaining 7 to make $186M, or an average of $26.6M. We have movies like Cats, Black Christmas, Little Women, Spies in Disguise, 1917 with December openings. We have mid-late November releases like Knives Out, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v. Ferrari, Charlie's Angels. From 2013-2018, the lowest average of 4-10 was $41.35M in 2016. Well above what is needed if the top 10 makes 85% of the gross. Even if we bumped it up to 90%, 4-10 would still only need an average of $36.1M. The question that remains is can the small films, and September-early November releases do enough to make the remaining amount? Well, if we do believe the average of 80%, then the films outside of the top 10 would need to make $265M. From 2013-2018, the lowest total amount made from 11-50 was $200M. The average gross for 11-50 throughout 2013-2018 was $217.1M. Well obviously if 2019 matched the lowest, or even the average, it wouldn't be the highest grossing December. That being said, unless you're not onboard with my numbers of the top 3, or actually believe 4-10 will only make $120M, then it's not hard to see how December 2019 could be the highest grossing December. Let's go back to my estimate of 85% from the top 10. The top 10 would make $1.125B. The remaining movies would need to make just $199M. Definitely doable. As I showed earlier, the lowest 11-50 gross from 2013-2018 was $200M. And furthermore, this is if 4-10 only makes $186M, an average of $26.6M. So, let's be a little more realistic here. Let's say 4-10 makes an average of $35M, for a total of $245M. In this scenario, either the top 3 has some wiggle room to work with, the movies outside the top 10 can do really bad, or even some of both. But let's stick with my top 3 of $939M. The top 10 would be $1.184B. The remaining movies would only need to make $140M. The remaining movies would definitely hit that mark of $1.324B. So who's with me in December 2019 becoming the highest grossing month of all time? IN: @Taruseth OUT: @Thanos Legion @Jamiem Bonus Club: But could it do more than become the highest grossing December? Highest grossing months of all time(Calendar gross) July 2011: $1,395,076,360 July 2016: $1,371,413,896 July 2013: $1,370,749,893 December 2017: $1,323,303,767 July 2012: $1,320,887,484 So, I think that 4-10, and 11-50 of December 2019 will be lower than 2013-2018. But the top 3 will make up for its downfalls. The top 3 will still be $939M. But I think 4-10 can average about $37M, and get a total of $260M. I think 11-50 can make $180M. Which would result in a grand total of $1.379B. The second highest grossing month of all time. Unfortunately, I think July 2011 is just out of reach. So who wants to go (almost) all the way and declare December 2019 as the second highest grossing month of all time? IN: @Taruseth
  3. A redo of my other thread. It will be the first MCU with a solo female lead, because AM&TW will have the first MCU movie with a female co-lead. It has some major competition like How To Train Your Dragon, Dumbo, Godzilla (which has some prominent female characters it seems) and a JP thriller movie. And is riding off the tails of other women led action pics like X-Men DP and Rhythm Section with Blake Lively. But on the plus side, it also releases on International Women's Day. We've seen with BP and others that a movie can break out, especially if it's good and targets an undeserved demographic. Anyways, over or under 420 mil domestic?
  4. Next holiday, Jumanji will be back into theaters. I think it could make over the original adjusted domestic for a few reasons: 1.) The star power on this flick is huge (The Rock, Kevin Hart, Jack Black) 2.) Even with Star Wars movies nowadays, family flicks are still doing well against it. Daddy's Home did $150M, and Sing is looking at a $300M total. 3.) It's competition other than Star Wars looks weak. 4.) Great reactions 5.) Looks like a ton of fun So are you in or out? IN (Jungle Boogey) Out (F*** Jumanji!)
  5. What'll likely be one of the worst movies of 2017 will likely breakout and you know what movie I'm talking about. The Emoji Movie. Unfortunately I can see it making $100M at the domestic box office for a few reasons. 1.) Emoji Movie benefits from an extremely barren August along with no family competition until Ninjago 2.) It could surprise and be decent (0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% of happening) 3.) Marketing for this will be rampant. 4.) It has a Hotel Transylvania short which could possibly add interest. So are you in or out? IN: (?) OUT: (?)
  6. Following in the vain of @WrathOfHan and to a lesser extent @Ethan Hunt's procrastinated 2017 predictions, I decided to do one of my own originally just for Summer of 2017 domestic, but due to break giving you guys a treat and putting my predictions in for Fall and Winter! 5/5/17: Guardians of The Galaxy Volume 2 (Starring Star-Munch) $145M OW/$350M Domestic (2.41x) As usual of the start of Summer, kids are out of school, beaches are full of people, Cheap TV Smurf releases a movie meanwhile Disney signs checks for good reviews. This time, without Big Daddy Downey as Man-child Smurf. Although trailer views have been lacking compared to other movies such as JL, SMH, Alien, and IT, and arguably hype has been lackluster, Disney/Cheap TV Smurf turns it around mid April as usual, and while I don't see $400M+ domestic, I see a slight increase thanks to it being of the MCU's most beloved titles, and the fact that may play out as more of a family film OW/presales. Unlike AOU, this seems likely for positive reviews and unlike CW you don't need to know 6-7 films prior to understand. The only two sources currently tracking is pro.Boxoffice.com, which is predicting $160M/$400M and @EmpireCity, who was seen good presales for it.
  7. Throughout spring break, while Beauty and the Beast and Fate of the Furious will be the juggernauts, a smaller box office battle will occur between blue people and Trump's baby. From the creator of Sing>Moana Domestic club comes Boss Baby>Smurfs Domestic club, which I think will happen for a few reasons: 1.) Boss Baby has more/better marketing, the trailers for this has killed at Rogue One and Sing. 2.) Smurfs has to deal with the bad WOM from the other 2 Smurfs movies. 3.) Boss Baby has slightly less competition than Smurfs and will likely get the better reviews. So are you in or out? IN: (Daddy's Boy/Girl) OUT: (NAABP)
  8. As you know both Moana (11/23) and Sing (12/23) are opening this holiday, both with respectively grosses. I think Sing will likely make more than Moana, for a few key reasons. 1.) Illumination is kind of a brand name now. 2.) Moana has more family competition (DS, Trolls, FB) than Sing (RO). 3.) Sing has been marketed more than Moana these past few months, and each trailer getting more views. It also seems likely that Disney will put more effort in promoting Rogue One and Doctor Strange this holiday, than Moana, similar to how TGD barely got promoted last year when The Force Awakens was about to be released. 4.) The first 20 minutes of Sing was shown at TIFF with seemingly good buzz. 5.) An almost done cut of Sing was also screened at TIFF with great reviews, most notable was Variety comparing Sing to a Pixar, WDAS, and Dreamworks level of quality. 6.) There has been minimal marketing for Moana, and Trolls had a decent OW along with Strange breaking out, and Beasts nearby, Moana may underperform, so things are looking good for Sing. My predictions for each are Moana: 65/90/305 Sing: 60/85/320 1/29/17: This club was a huge success and my first victory here. Although my predictions were way off Sing broke out big thanks to the holiday season, great weekdays, and the marketing power of Illumination. Actuals: Moana: $56.6M (3 Day)/$82M (5 Day)/$250M-$255M (projected total) Sing: $35.2M (3 Day)/$55.8M (5 Day)/$75M (6 Day)/$270M-$275M (projected total) IN (Might of the Lady Gaga pigs) YourMother ($320M Sing, $305M Moana) WrathOfHan narniadis ($300M or over for Sing) Truckasaurus BenedictL11 CaptainJackSparrow Spaghetti Hiccup23 DAJK RandomJC Krissykins fracfar CaptainH OUT (Maui Power!) Water Bottle Cjohn Cannastop Blankments Jason RascarCapat a2knet (<$250M Sing, >$250M Moana) Claudio Arlborn (>$300M Sing, Moana > Sing) The Panda tribefan695 Daniel Dylan Davis
  9. From the maker of the likely successful Sing over Moana club comes Sing making over $300M domestic club. Sing could make over $300M for a few reasons: 1.) Sing is currently following a projection at $180M by Monday, with weak family competition and a barren January could allow Sing to belt out $300M. 2.) It's WOM has been fantastic so far with a showstopper 3rd act. So are you in or out? IN Out
  10. $100M for a low budget horror is not something I would usually expect/imagine/fathom at all. But every new bit of info that comes out about this film gives me confidence that it is in line for a big opening and a leggy (by horror standards) run. Early reviews have been unanimously positive, all calling it terrifying and the scariest film of the year, if not the past few years. Director James Wan's previous film 'Insidious', opened softly but still managed a 4x multi thanks to good word of mouth amongst the horror crowd. All early word, including "almost unheard of positive reactions to test screenings" suggest that this film will be better and scarier than Insidious. Horror has made a bit of a comeback this year with Mama, The Purge, Evil Dead and now (sort of) World War Z all over performing. This is despite mixed WOM. If The Conjuring lives up to the hype then this could become a Paranormal Activity sized hit with audiences, because everyone loves a good scare and truly scary films are few and far between. It is perhaps a bold prediction but at this point I'm in for $100M Dom and have The Conjuring at $33M/$105M Who's in? IN RichWS - $165M Michael Gary Scott Jake Gittes CoolioD1 Cmasterclay Vanilla - $125M blenderbus - $110M Wildphantom - $120M PDC1987 Empire University - $103M Biggestgeekever Mahnamahna - $136M ky02121 - $120M filmnerdjamie letsuseournoggin Omega shrinkage Dark Prince KingKong TMP - $130M SharkNadoBuff - $135M Maxmoser3 - $100M acab Witness - $110M sam - $100M ShawnMr - $105M Sims - $110M BEEJAYGRAD11 OUT ChD - $41M CJohn - $50M seduh mcclaine ban1o seduh #Alpha - $83M Karl Ruger - $65M Jack Nevada - $80M Ryneoh1040 - $75M Krissykins - $50M Jandrew Godzilla - $50M Hiccup - $70M Baumer
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