Titanic | James Cameron | Pretend it's 1997 all over again (The pure awe of Titanic's run)

[lilmac]

Fortunately I liked the film and that supersedes what the masses think/thought. Let the reviews wax and wane. Titanic, like Avatar, have very impressive boxoffice runs that stand the test of time. This was an amazing run to follow in real time. Ahh, so many stories. 🙂

[charlie Jatinder]

Watched it first time in 2016. The best film ever made.

[setna]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Watched it first time in 2016. The best film ever made.

Really????!!!

The first time in 2016!!!

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, setna said:

Really????!!!

The first time in 2016!!!

Yes. I am very late to Hollywood movies. Started with Mission Impossible, HP and Iron Man in 2013.

[DAJK]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Watched it first time in 2016. The best film ever made.

kinda curious your thoughts, could this movie, were it made in 2020 (assuming same case/director etc. with maybe only thing changed is fixing up some CGI... I know we're in fantasy world rn but bear with me) could it possibly have the same kind of run the movie had in 97/98? 

 

And not just "30M opening, 600M domestic, 1.8M worldwide". I mean ADJUSTED. If it were the same movie released today, is a 60M opening, 1200M domestic, 3600M worldwide even possible? 

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, DAJK said:

kinda curious your thoughts, could this movie, were it made in 2020 (assuming same case/director etc. with maybe only thing changed is fixing up some CGI... I know we're in fantasy world rn but bear with me) could it possibly have the same kind of run the movie had in 97/98? 

 

And not just "30M opening, 600M domestic, 1.8M worldwide". I mean ADJUSTED. If it were the same movie released today, is a 60M opening, 1200M domestic, 3600M worldwide even possible? 

I guess not. Partly because the theatre life have become short and less people go to theatre across the world.

 

Regarding whether the story may work. In India, in 2018 we had a film, Kedarnath.

I haven't seen the film but heard & guessed it followed Titanic route.

This film had a okayish start but trended well and was an average success while before release trade thought it will bomb.

 

So I guess story will still hold value.

 

I guess it can easily do $500mn in NA today and $1.8-2Bn worldwide is possible. May be more if China breakout.

Edited February 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Barnack]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I guess not. Partly because the theatre life have become short and less people go to theatre across the world.

Than 1997 ?

https://www.boxofficepro.com/unic-reports-record-1-34-billion-visits-to-european-cinemas-in-2019/

 

Didn't change much domestic vs back then and with how much some market they give the impression South Korea, Brazil, China to have grown since then, that would be surprising. We are not comparing to before television of 2004 here, I am not sure how many markets were significantly bigger in 1997-1998 versus now to make up for emergent market growth.

Edited February 18, 2020 by Barnack

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Than 1997 ?

https://www.boxofficepro.com/unic-reports-record-1-34-billion-visits-to-european-cinemas-in-2019/

 

Didn't change much domestic vs back then and with how much some market they give the impression South Korea, Brazil, China to have grown since then, that would be surprising. We are not comparing to before television of 2004 here, I am not sure how many markets were significantly bigger in 1997-1998 versus now to make up for emergent market growth.

Thanks for making me look at yearly numbers. One thing I noticed, that numbers are more or less flat or 2019 a bit lower but ceiling of top films have decreased. Looked up for India numbers too, number of films in year for Bollywood gone up by 2.5 times, ceiling for top film is about half while overall admits roughly 70%.

Edited February 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

kinda curious your thoughts, could this movie, were it made in 2020 (assuming same case/director etc. with maybe only thing changed is fixing up some CGI... I know we're in fantasy world rn but bear with me) could it possibly have the same kind of run the movie had in 97/98? 

 

 

That is a really hard question, but one line of reflexion you would have asked this in february message board in 1997:

 

Do you think Titanic or any movie can make 1.8 billion, I would imagine you would have laugh at, was Jurassic Park the only movie to have reached 1 billion at the time, if it did ? In 1996 the 800 million something run of Independance day was the second biggest of all time, not 50% of Titanic.

 

I would imagine we have a really bad idea of how big a movie like Titanic could be right now, it was massive in China when it released in 3d there, it was massive in India, it was about number 1 everywhere except for some local exception.

 

We could look last year a number 1 movie in every market would have made how much to have some idea, I doubt it could sell over 120m tickets domestic nowaday, but who know if it would not be a 800m movie in China....

 

Movie run a shorter a bit now, but it is not like any movie was having that long theatrical release like Titanic did either back in those days, and a sequel that open ultra wide like Jumanji made over 1.5m in is day 66 of release just this last Sunday, the one released in 2017 had is last over 1 million day at the box office at day #81, I imagine a phenomenon like Titanic release before Christmas could still get good weekend/tuesday days well in is 100 days in release.

[Alexdube]

50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I guess not. Partly because the theatre life have become short and less people go to theatre across the world.

 

Regarding whether the story may work. In India, in 2018 we had a film, Kedarnath.

I haven't seen the film but heard & guessed it followed Titanic route.

This film had a okayish start but trended well and was an average success while before release trade thought it will bomb.

 

So I guess story will still hold value.

 

I guess it can easily do $500mn in NA today and $1.8-2Bn worldwide is possible. May be more if China breakout.

Titanic did 1.8b in freakin' 97, there's no way it doesn't crush past that today. Let's look at Lion King for instance, made $763,455,561 in 94 (around the same time as Titanic). Today the same movie (but arguably worst and with bad reviews) made $1,656,943,394 effortlessly. That's more than 2x more despite theater life being shorter as you say. Apply that multiplier to Titanic and you get 4 billion. I'm not saying it would make that, but it could still easily be the highest grossing movie ever by a long shot.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Today the same movie (but arguably worst and with bad reviews) made $1,656,943,394 effortlessly. That's more than 2x more despite theater life being shorter as you say.

The same exercise wit not well received Jurassic Park/Star wars sequel that ratio look quite similar

 

1997: The lost world: 618m (breaking OW record coming of one of the best movie ever)

2018: Fallen Kingdom: 1.3 billion (coming off the Ok jurassic world)

 

That also a bit more than 2x.

 

Even for Star Wars that do not get help of emerging market, Awaken-Last Jedi they doubled Phantom Menace-Attack of the Clone.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Titanic did 1.8b in freakin' 97, there's no way it doesn't crush past that today. Let's look at Lion King for instance, made $763,455,561 in 94 (around the same time as Titanic). Today the same movie (but arguably worst and with bad reviews) made $1,656,943,394 effortlessly. 

Yeah but then you have TLK 3D doing almost doing double of Titanic 3D in NA.

 

Also Animation as a genre ain't that big in Asia. Live Action TLK did wonders in India at $27mn, animation wouldn't have done much more than $7-8mn I reckon considering Frozen 2 did that much.

 

That's just showing two are different movies.

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Also Animation as a genre ain't that big in Asia.

Must depend of market because in some them it is really big (or can be for the special something and LionKing certainly was that):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_Japan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_South_Korea

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

 

With the Spirited away/frozen 1-2/zootopia.

 

But it seem as true for the Jurassic Park/James Bond/Batman of that era as well.

[Alexdube]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah but then you have TLK 3D doing almost doing double of Titanic 3D in NA.

 

Also Animation as a genre ain't that big in Asia. Live Action TLK did wonders in India at $27mn, animation wouldn't have done much more than $7-8mn I reckon considering Frozen 2 did that much.

 

That's just showing two are different movies.

around 1.6 times more to be exact, but then Titanic almost made twice as much worldwide? So what's the point? Besides, a Lion King 3d re-release seems like a much more obvious fit than for a movie like Titanic.

 

And look, we could nitpick endlessly about small details that don't make both Lion King runs comparable, but at the end of the day it is still essentially the same movie, reaching the same demographics, just with different graphics. Besides as @Barnack demonstrated, the logic still holds for other franchises who had new but similar movies in recent years.

 

Bottom line is, market growth and inflation is absolutely much more significant than theater runs being generally shorter. No one can refute that Titanic could be an absolute monster if released today.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

No one can refute that Titanic could be an absolute monster if released today.

Well yes they can (based on audience taste change and so on), but saying the market is smaller than 23 year's ago is just not a good refute imo.

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

but then Titanic almost made twice as much worldwide?

TLK didn't release in China. The difference come from there.

[Alexdube]

27 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Well yes they can (based on audience taste change and so on), but saying the market is smaller than 23 year's ago is just not a good refute imo.

No one can refute that Titanic could be an absolute monster if released today. Those 2 words are important, what I mean is that I can't prove Titanic  would make 3b+, but no one can deny the potential is there.

Edited February 18, 2020 by Alexdube

[Alexdube]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TLK didn't release in China. The difference come from there.

Fair enough but Titanic 3d is still over even without China isn't it?

 

Jesus in Czech Republic Lion King 3d made $68,401 while Titanic 3d made $3,524,061, not sure what happened there

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr1276465669/

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr4211823109/

Edited February 18, 2020 by Alexdube

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Alexdube said:

Fair enough but Titanic 3d is still over even without China isn't it?

 

Jesus in Czech Republic Lion King 3d made $68,401 while Titanic 3d made $3,524,061, not sure what happened there

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr1276465669/

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr4211823109/

Genre limitation I guess. TLK 3D made $150k in India. Titanic made ~$4mn.

 

TLK live action made $27mn.

Edited February 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, Alexdube said:

No one can refute that Titanic could be an absolute monster if released today. Those 2 words are important, what I mean is that I can't prove Titanic  would make 3b+, but no one can deny the potential is there.

I think that's my question; "could it" be the monster that it was in 97. In today's age of moviegoing, can a movie that doesn't open to something monstrous like 1.2B WW (ahem) even come close to 3B anymore?