Weekend Estimate #s FF6: 34.5 NYSM 27.8 AE: 27.3 TH3: 15.9

[baumer]

3.5 is not an uncommon multiplier for ORIGINAL summer films. especially ones that are well spoken of by the audience.  Every summer is filled with competition.  And the great thing about NYSM is that it has now BECOME THE COMPETITION.

 

A small sample:

 

Super 8:  3.6X

Horrible Bosses:  4.1X

Ted:  4.1

Grown Ups:  4.0X

 

Original films have no rush factor and they build on positive WOM.  NYSM has that.  I'm not saying 100 is locked, just that it is a possibility.

 

bump for firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The Purge should definitely be number one next week. I'm thinking 25 ow.

I think intership should easily win.

 

maybe middle teens for Purge. Ethan Hawke can not open a movie ....

[baumer]

1	1	Fast & Furious 6	Uni.	$34,538,000	-64.5%	3,686	+28	$9,370	$170,377,000	$160	2
2	N	Now You See Me	LG/S	$28,050,000	-	2,925	-	$9,590	$28,050,000	$75	1
3	N	After Earth	Sony	$27,000,000	-	3,401	-	$7,939	$27,000,000	$130	1
4	4	Epic	Fox	$16,400,000	-51.1%	3,894	+12	$4,212	$65,161,000	$100	2
5	3	Star Trek Into Darkness	Par.	$16,400,000	-56.0%	3,585	-322	$4,575	$181,156,000	$190	3
6	2	The Hangover Part III	WB	$15,930,000	-61.8%	3,565	+10	$4,468	$88,086,000	$103	2
7	5	Iron Man 3	BV	$8,006,000	-58.6%	2,895	-529	$2,765	$384,751,000	$200	5
8	6	The Great Gatsby (2013)	WB	$6,265,000	-53.7%	2,635	-455	$2,378	$128,256,000	$105	4
-	9	The Croods	Fox	$615,000	-49.6%	506	-502	$1,215	$180,538,000	$135	11
-	13	Frances Ha	IFC	$552,000	+0.4%	133	+73	$4,150	$1,578,000	-	3
-	8	42	WB	$515,000	-59.1%	501	-414	$1,028	$92,334,000	$40	8
-	18	Before Midnight	SPC	$431,000	+74.6%	31	+26	$13,903	$800,000	-	2
-	11	Oz The Great and Powerful	BV	$393,000	-39.7%	330	-71	$1,191	$233,007,000	$215	13
-	10	Oblivion	Uni.	$389,000	-55.3%	357	-215	$1,090	$88,062,000	$120	7
-	14	G.I. Joe: Retaliation	Par.	$267,000	-39.3%	286	-60	$934	$121,578,000	$130	10
-	27	What Maisie Knew	MNE	$206,000	+45.3%	101	+74	$2,040	$543,000	-	5
-	17	Escape From Planet Earth	Wein.	$191,000	-24.9%	268	-78	$713	$56,318,000	$40	16
-	20	Love is All You Need	SPC	$169,000	-22.2%	71	+8	$2,380	$707,000	-	5
-	12	Pain and Gain	Par.	$144,000	-77.6%	207	-796	$696	$49,039,000	$26	6
-	21	Identity Thief	Uni.	$141,000	-32.1%	150	-37	$940	$134,467,000	$35	17
-	22	Kon-Tiki	Wein.	$132,000	-19.3%	74	+10	$1,784	$888,600	-	6
-	15	The Iceman (2013)	MNE	$123,000	-66.5%	123	-135	$1,000	$1,716,000	-	5
-	23	Olympus Has Fallen	FD	$89,000	-44.8%	149	-60	$597	$97,865,700	$70	11
-	24	The Place Beyond the Pines	Focus	$78,000	-51.5%	103	-25	$757	$21,115,500	$15	10
-	N	The East	FoxS	$75,600	-	4	-	$18,900	$75,600	-	1
-	28	The Company You Keep	SPC	$66,300	-50.8%	73	-23	$908	$4,882,500	-	9

[baumer]

And according to THR, most of NYSM's 75 mill budget has already been made back because of deals they made with international distributors.  

[RyneOh1040]

I think Internship does close to 30.

I think it's one of the tougher films to call this Summer but I'm going with mid to high teens.  I feel like both Vaughn and Wilson have lost a lot of their relevance and the trailer hasn't gotten much of a reaction (except the for Professor X part) with any crowds I've seen.  I think the story next week is the Purge.  It has been trending on Twitter at times in the past 2 or 3 weeks and the under 25 walk up is going to be HUGE.  Rated R might hurt overall business but I think an opening day in the 10-15 range and a weekend in the low to mid 30's has a great chance of happening.

[Olive]

And according to THR, most of NYSM's 75 mill budget has already been made back because of deals they made with international distributors.  

Nikki said 2/3 of the budget has been made back.

[baumer]

I think it's one of the tougher films to call this Summer but I'm going with mid to high teens.  I feel like both Vaughn and Wilson have lost a lot of their relevance and the trailer hasn't gotten much of a reaction (except the for Professor X part) with any crowds I've seen.  I think the story next week is the Purge.  It has been trending on Twitter at times in the past 2 or 3 weeks and the under 25 walk up is going to be HUGE.  Rated R might hurt overall business but I think an opening day in the 10-15 range and a weekend in the low to mid 30's has a great chance of happening.

 

 

My gut is telling me this film is going to be much bigger than most think.  I've felt that all summer.

Edited June 2, 2013 by baumer

[kayumanggi]

 

Box Office Buzz ‏@Boxoffice_buzz12m

#NowYouSeeMe opens to $27.8M @SummitEnt http://tmblr.co/Z4lI6ymGTJyz 

 

Much

 

Much higher than almost any of us had it. A 3.6X will put it over 100 mill!

 

 

My first correct breakout prediction. Next for me is THIS IS THE END and THE HEAT.

[Deep Wang]

No, I've never ever heard of it.

You should definitely check it out.

[kayumanggi]

 

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice6m

STAR TREK: ID beamed up $37.6M overseas this weekend w/ $25M from China, $5M from Korea. Int'l total: $147.4M

 

Should finish around 225M, about 100M increase from the original. 

 

 

I think 250 M is possible.

 

25 M more from China.

 

07 M more from Korea (maybe more)

 

10 M more from the rest of the current markets.

 

That's 42 M plus the current total = 189 M.

 

Still has Brazil, France, Italy, Japan, and Spain and other smaller markets.

 

But then again 250 M is really not an impressive number. Still happy it doubled the first one's gross.

[Incarnadine]

The Croods passing 180 domestic, probably the last mini milestone for it here, but there's still 400 OS and a fair shot at 600 WW.

Such a fun run to watch while it lasted.

[kayumanggi]

WKND BO: Fast&Furious6 $34.5M/$170.4M, NowYouSeeMe $28.1M, #AfterEarth $27M, Epic $16.4M/$65.2M, StarTrek $16.4M/$181.2M.

https://twitter.com/giteshpandya/status/341225927667220480

[Jay Beezy]

Movies were way less frontloaded then.

Also, the Italian Job got an end of summer expansion to boost its final tally.

[kayumanggi]

'Fast & Furious 6' fell 65% -- a new low for the series -- but still held on to first place this weekend

https://twitter.com/boxofficemojo/status/341225400137052160

[baumer]

 

1 1 Fast & Furious 6 Uni. $34,538,000 -64.5% 3,686 +28 $9,370 $170,377,000 $160 2 2 N Now You See Me LG/S $28,050,000 - 2,925 - $9,590 $28,050,000 $75 1 3 N After Earth Sony $27,000,000 - 3,401 - $7,939 $27,000,000 $130 1 4 4 Epic Fox $16,400,000 -51.1% 3,894 +12 $4,212 $65,161,000 $100 2 5 3 Star Trek Into Darkness Par. $16,400,000 -56.0% 3,585 -322 $4,575 $181,156,000 $190 3 6 2 The Hangover Part III WB $15,930,000 -61.8% 3,565 +10 $4,468 $88,086,000 $103 2 7 5 Iron Man 3 BV $8,006,000 -58.6% 2,895 -529 $2,765 $384,751,000 $200 5 8 6 The Great Gatsby (2013) WB $6,265,000 -53.7% 2,635 -455 $2,378 $128,256,000 $105 4 - 9 The Croods Fox $615,000 -49.6% 506 -502 $1,215 $180,538,000 $135 11 - 13 Frances Ha IFC $552,000 +0.4% 133 +73 $4,150 $1,578,000 - 3 - 8 42 WB $515,000 -59.1% 501 -414 $1,028 $92,334,000 $40 8 - 18 Before Midnight SPC $431,000 +74.6% 31 +26 $13,903 $800,000 - 2 - 11 Oz The Great and Powerful BV $393,000 -39.7% 330 -71 $1,191 $233,007,000 $215 13 - 10 Oblivion Uni. $389,000 -55.3% 357 -215 $1,090 $88,062,000 $120 7 - 14 G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par. $267,000 -39.3% 286 -60 $934 $121,578,000 $130 10 - 27 What Maisie Knew MNE $206,000 +45.3% 101 +74 $2,040 $543,000 - 5 - 17 Escape From Planet Earth Wein. $191,000 -24.9% 268 -78 $713 $56,318,000 $40 16 - 20 Love is All You Need SPC $169,000 -22.2% 71 +8 $2,380 $707,000 - 5 - 12 Pain and Gain Par. $144,000 -77.6% 207 -796 $696 $49,039,000 $26 6 - 21 Identity Thief Uni. $141,000 -32.1% 150 -37 $940 $134,467,000 $35 17 - 22 Kon-Tiki Wein. $132,000 -19.3% 74 +10 $1,784 $888,600 - 6 - 15 The Iceman (2013) MNE $123,000 -66.5% 123 -135 $1,000 $1,716,000 - 5 - 23 Olympus Has Fallen FD $89,000 -44.8% 149 -60 $597 $97,865,700 $70 11 - 24 The Place Beyond the Pines Focus $78,000 -51.5% 103 -25 $757 $21,115,500 $15 10 - N The East FoxS $75,600 - 4 - $18,900 $75,600 - 1 - 28 The Company You Keep SPC $66,300 -50.8% 73 -23 $908 $4,882,500 - 9

 

[The Futurist]

John Carter OW  : $30,180,188

 

After Earth OW : $27,000,000

 

Battleship OW : $25,534,825

 

When you are doing Taylor Kitsch OW numbers, it is time to ask yourself tough questions Mr Smith.

[John Marston]

that's pretty good for Now You See Me. Would have made over 30m in a less competitive market place. Makes me wonder why the moved it from the original March date to the crowded summer

[4815162342]

I think 250 M is possible.

 

25 M more from China.

 

07 M more from Korea (maybe more)

 

10 M more from the rest of the current markets.

 

That's 42 M plus the current total = 189 M.

 

Still has Brazil, France, Italy, Japan, and Spain and other smaller markets.

 

But then again 250 M is really not an impressive number. Still happy it doubled the first one's gross.

 

Don't know about 250m yet. ST09 made 21.8m from those 5 main markets combined. Considering STID's increases in Asian markets I expect it to double the 5.8m ST09 got from Japan. Brazil's a total unknown, but for the Euro markets STID's increases have been less stellar, even if substantial bumps.

 

But if does make 250m it is an impressive number considering how non-OS a franchise Trek has been and it bodes well for a third film's greenlight and continued OS increases.

Edited June 2, 2013 by 4815162342

[lab276]

'Fast & Furious 6' fell 65% -- a new low for the series -- but still held on to first place this weekend

https://twitter.com/boxofficemojo/status/341225400137052160

Considering there was an inflated Sunday, it's not terrible for the franchise.

[wileECoyote]

My first correct breakout prediction. Next for me is THIS IS THE END and THE HEAT.

What would you consider to be a breakout for Heat considering IT success? 60/180?Not too interested in it myself but I'm probably not the target demo may reconsider if WOM is like Bridesmaids or dragged into it.