Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | June 30 2023 | Very mixed reviews out of Cannes

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I wouldn’t count the LATAM market out just yet. And the Asian market other than Japan per the Japan thread was never big on Indiana Jones as far as I know. Key markets for Indiana Jones are imho domestic and Europe, and we will know soon how the film is going to go.

 

A lot of the people on the tracking thread are seasoned BOT people THAT  I follow and respect their efforts for a long time. While one could see the tracking of pre-sales so far is disappointing, I think anyone of those doing this for long enough would agree that looking at Dial of Destiny’s OW alone won’t tell the whole picture, especially with the film basically having the July 4th week for itself. Summer days make for strong weekdays, especially the next few weeks. It stands to reason to say that the nature of walk-ups for an Indiana Jones film is different than for yet another superhero film, aligning a lot more with Bond or M:I films for the sake of comparison.

 

I’m not trying to portray any narrative, I’m commenting on a series of vitriol posts that keep popping on this thread daily for a good while that would likely get people threadbanned if this was let’s say a DCEU property. We all know how ‘special’ and heated those threads can get - or could, rest the DCEU’s soul - and while I’m not advocating this sort of treatment for Indy’s thread, I think it’s only fair to point out that the vitriol for this one seems kinda unwarranted and weird to me.

The vitriol is because this series was kept going loooooong after its logical expiration date. People have very fond memories of the original trilogy and don't like seeing crappy looking products pushed out using the Indy name.

[Liiviig 1998]

16 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

No one is discussing that. No one is objecting that. What me and others are pointing out is that there is a lenience to let’s say the latest M:I or other BOT darlings that there isn’t really with this one. It’s not out yet, it has one of the best release dates of the summer and despite it’s OW, this isn’t Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3, let alone The Flash. Despite the budget, a film like Dial of Destiny will behave a lot more like M:I or Bond than one from the superhero genre. All I’m saying is, we don’t really know how it’s going to go this weekend, let alone how it will go throughout the 4th of July week, where we’ll be able to paint a better picture of its run domestically.

 

It’s fair to call a bomb well, a bomb. But no one called The Flash a bomb before opening, and no one is likely calling M:I a bomb before it opens either, despite its weak pre-sale’s sorry far.

 

 

That’s an excellent point. I do think that despite the absence of talk shows, Indy might still have some surprises under that hat when it comes to its box office. We’ll know soon enough.

I wouldn't call Indy a bomb yet too until ow and audience metrics,legs .

 

But the trend trajectory wise is looking like the flash and with that at least we still had hope it would get to 500m but for Indy it's needs close to 750m just to breakeven due to its hefty budget. 

 

Even don't think  an A- CS would cut it. This needs an A

 

Was just trying to adress @wildphantom statement at the end . 

In simple terms. Even though subjective ly for some of it may not  matter as long as we enjoy it  but  Ultimately in the general schemes of things box-office does matter alot . If it bombed ,"it would be still termed a financial failure" and that is just not good.

[MightyDargon]

It's also kinda obvious that (Maverick aside) there's been turnover in what the demo that goes to the movies is and its become increasingly difficult to get the people invested in 80s/90s hits to go back into the theatre.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

I wouldn't call Indy a bomb yet too until ow and audience metrics,legs .

 

But the trend trajectory wise is looking like the flash and with that at least we still had hope it would get to 500m but for Indy it's needs close to 750m just to breakeven due to its hefty budget. 

 

Even don't think  an A- CS would cut it. This needs an A

 

Was just trying to adress @wildphantom statement at the end . 

 

In simple terms. Even though subjective ly for some of it may not  matter as long as we enjoy it  but  Ultimately in the general schemes of things box-office does matter alot . If it bombed ,"it would be still termed a financial failure" and that is just not good.

Following box office for a long ass while. I have been spot on in the past, dead and epically wrong too. But I insist, I am confident saying that comparing Dial of Destiny to The Flash will be proven flat out wrong. You can’t expect an Indiana Jones to behave like a superhero film, the audiences for both are different. Could I be wrong? Sure. But we will know soon enough.

[John Marston]

I wonder if Shia actually helped Crystal Skull with younger audiences at the time. It was a year after his Disturbia/Transformers breakout 

[Issac Newton]

Indiana Jonas Franchise (Hong Kong)

1. Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom - HK$19,806,000
2. Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade - HK$24,275,000
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - HK$26,844,912

1 didn't get release. 2 &3 were No.1 Imported Film of the year.

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

 

[MightyDargon]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I wonder if Shia actually helped Crystal Skull with younger audiences at the time. It was a year after his Disturbia/Transformers breakout 

He was a terrible casting choice. He might have helped solely OW but that got cancelled out by how hated Mutt became.

[Issac Newton]

Indiana Jones Franchise (South Korea)

1. Raiders of the Lost Ark - 348,489 admits (Seoul)
2. Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom - 808,492 admits (Seoul)
3. Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade - 491,010 admits (Seoul)
4. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 1,245,028 admits (Seoul) / 4,136,101 admits (Nationwide)

[vale9001]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I wonder if Shia actually helped Crystal Skull with younger audiences at the time. It was a year after his Disturbia/Transformers breakout 

 

absolutely.

[FunkMiller]

34 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

It's also kinda obvious that (Maverick aside) there's been turnover in what the demo that goes to the movies is and its become increasingly difficult to get the people invested in 80s/90s hits to go back into the theatre.

 

Especially if those movies don't trade specifically in what made those 80s/90s films hits in the first place.

 

The Indiana Jones trilogy was a modernisation of the old 30s and 40s serials. It was 'adventure man vs the evil monsters' writ large across a movie screen, using practical effects and expert stuntwork. It wasn't 'very old man vs the cgi set piece'. There was a visceral thrill to the Indy movies. That is clearly completely gone.

 

This is why I'm not going to see the film, despite the fact that Raiders is still in my top five movies of all time. 

 

Yes, I do sound like an old man shouting at a cloud, but if Disney are going to try to make more money off the characters us old farts grew up with, then they need to actually recreate what made those movies so great.

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

29 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Following box office for a long ass while. I have been spot on in the past, dead and epically wrong too. But I insist, I am confident saying that comparing Dial of Destiny to The Flash will be proven flat out wrong. You can’t expect an Indiana Jones to behave like a superhero film, the audiences for both are different. Could I be wrong? Sure. But we will know soon enough.

OW yes. IM will be higher . But flash had higher previews.

 

It's looking 7-8m previews but walk-ups could get it to 9m.

 

55-72m OW. range . Opening in 60s most likely so opening could end up close to flash if walk-ups don't pan out.

[Issac Newton]

Check all traditional Asian Markets, Indiana Jones have some yearly records. 

[ZattMurdock]

13 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

OW yes. IM will be higher . But flash had higher previews.

 

It's looking 7-8m previews but walk-ups could get it to 9m.

 

55-72m OW. range . Opening in 60s most likely so opening could end up close to flash if walk-ups don't pan out.

Superhero films having higher previews because of the ‘must see’ factor of hardcore fans is literally one of the things that set Indiana apart. And even with similar OW numbers, it could and likely will have a radically different trajectory. Different dates, way more known character, comparing with The Flash - or any other superhero film - doesn’t really makes sense to me.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[scytheavatar]

2 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Following box office for a long ass while. I have been spot on in the past, dead and epically wrong too. But I insist, I am confident saying that comparing Dial of Destiny to The Flash will be proven flat out wrong. You can’t expect an Indiana Jones to behave like a superhero film, the audiences for both are different. Could I be wrong? Sure. But we will know soon enough.

 

The fact that people are comparing Indy V to The Flash already makes Indy V a bomb. Cause The Flash is a bomb of such unprecedented levels that earning twice the amount still makes Indy V a flop. Is being less a bomb than The Flash really something Disney should be bragging about for Indy V?

[sabrecmc]

Tom Cruise and his Scientology connection makes me want to dislike him, but his love of movies, theaters and movie-making in general makes me inclined to like him. I'm so conflicted.

 

Anyway, I've got my ticket for tomorrow's Indy showing. It's decently full, but not sold out, though most everyone around here has a 4 day weekend thanks to the 4th falling on a Tuesday. Seems like a lot of people I know plan to go see it sometime, but there's no rush, except for me, just because I love Indy and Harrison Ford.

[vale9001]

7 minutes ago, sabrecmc said:

Tom Cruise and his Scientology connection makes me want to dislike him, but his love of movies, theaters and movie-making in general makes me inclined to like him. I'm so conflicted.

 

Anyway, I've got my ticket for tomorrow's Indy showing. It's decently full, but not sold out, though most everyone around here has a 4 day weekend thanks to the 4th falling on a Tuesday. Seems like a lot of people I know plan to go see it sometime, but there's no rush, except for me, just because I love Indy and Harrison Ford.

Only loves his movies apparently since he tried to damege the others two. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by vale9001

[screambaby]

6 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

Have just seen this and was pleasantly surprised.

 

This is RT's consensus:

 

It isn't as thrilling as earlier adventures, but the nostalgic rush of seeing Harrison Ford back in action helps Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny find a few final bits of cinematic treasure.

 

I disagree. I really didn't enjoy the earlier entries, but this one I did. The earlier ones were cringey. 😂 Am I offending fans here? 😅

The only one  I'm openly bored by is temple of doom.

Glad you liked this one!

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

Superhero films having higher previews because of the ‘must see’ factor of hardcore fans is literally one of the things that set Indiana apart. And even with similar OW numbers, it could and likely will have a radically different trajectory. Different dates, way more known character, comparing with The Flash - or any other superhero film - doesn’t really makes sense to me.

Ofcorse Indy is gonna be much more leggier . Trajectory I'm talking is specifically about the 3 day OW alone.

 

Flash had 9.7x 5.68 - 55M

Pessimistic Indy -7x8= 56M.

 

Even with flash like opening due to its target audience it would be way more leggier.

 

John wick 3 open 56m and finished around 171m. That's my lowest I have it at . If CS falls below A-

 

Realistic 65m/87m 5 day  legging to low 200s . A- CS 

 

Nice  72/100M+ 5 day legging to high 200s -300m+.  A

 

OS expect this to do well in Europe which should be enough for 300-400m+ depending on WOM. 

Asia was never big on Indy . Japan only interesting one.

Don't know about LATAM

 

Overall vibe I'm getting this seems to be better than crystal skull.

 

Don't see this below 500m. 

 

It's definitely not the flash and don't expect to be anywhere as low as that range.