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laguy's Winter Game - And the winner is...

By laguy03, in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

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Welcome to laguy’s 2013/14 Winter Game!

 

This is a (nearly) 4 month game that begins on Friday, October 4th, 2013 and ends on Monday, January 20th, 2014. That means everything that is asked of you in this game, from predicted grosses to SOTMs, only concern box office grosses earned during this period.

 

All preseason predictions and answers are due on Thursday, October 3rd at 12 PM PST. This thread will only be used for the discussion of the game. Your Top 15 films, Top 5 Opening Weekends, and preseason answers will be posted in a separate thread. Every scorable answer must be posted in the designated thread. I won’t be scoring anything that is posted in this thread. Also, I will not accept PM answers.

 

I will be strict with deadlines, so please be sure that you post your answers/responses before the given deadlines.

 

Game Components:

 

Predict Top 15 Films of Winter (750,000 points + 900,000 potential bonus points)

Predict the order and grosses of the top 15 films released between October 4th, 2013 and January 20th, 2014.

 

Point System for Predicting Grosses:

For every Top 15 film’s gross that you call within $10M, you get 30,000 points. If you call it between $10M-$20M, you get 20,000 points. If you call it between $20M-$30M, you get 10,000 points. If you call it within $30M-$40M, you don’t gain or lose points. If the final gross you predicted is off by between $40M-$60M, you will lose 5,000 points. For every $20M you are off by after that, you will lose an additional 5,000 points. So if, for example you are off by $101M, you will lose 20,000 points for that film.

 

Point System for Predicting Positions:

    [*]For every film you call correctly in the Top 15, you will get 20,000 points.

    [*]If you call a film in the correct spot, you will get 20,000 bonus points.

    [*]If you predict a film will make the Top 15 and it misses, you will lose 15,000 points for that prediction.

    [*]You will not gain or lose points for the predicted grosses of the films that miss the Top 15

The bonus point breakdowns are described below. You can score one of the first three bonuses in addition to a bonus from the rest of the list.

    [*]If you call the top 3 positions correctly, in order, you will get a 50,000 point bonus

    [*]If you call the top 4 positions correctly, in order, you will get a 75,000 point bonus

    [*]If you call the top 5 positions correctly, in order, you will get a 100,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 8 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 50,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 9 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 100,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 10 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 150,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 11 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 200,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 12 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 250,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 13 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 300,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 14 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 400,000 point bonus

    [*]If you can call 15 out of the 15 films correctly, regardless of order and gross, you will get a 500,000 point bonus

Predict Top 5 Opening Weekends (75,000 points + 200,000 potential bonus points)

Predict the 5 biggest opening weekend grosses (and the order of those openings). All films released between October 4th, 2013 and January 20th, 2014 will count. I consider a film’s opening weekend gross to be as all money earned starting with Thursday sneak peaks and leading up to Sunday night.

 

Point System for Predicting Top 5 OW:

For every film you call correctly in the top 5, regardless of order, you will receive 15,000 points. For every film you call in the exact spot, you will get 10,000 bonus points. If you are able to call 3 of the 5 correctly, regardless of order, you will receive a 50,000 point bonus. Call 4 out of 5 correctly, you will get a 75,000 point bonus. If you call 5 out of 5 correctly, you will get a 100,000 point bonus. For every film you call incorrectly in the top 5, you lose 10,000 points. As a bonus, for every Top 5 opening weekend gross that you guess within $10M, you will get 10,000 points. Since these are bonus points, predicting the OW grosses is not mandatory. The only thing I have to have are the film titles and their respective positions.

 

10 Preseason Questions (100,000 points)

 

Note: For every film that you don’t give an answer for, you will automatically lose 7,000 points.

1. Will at least 3 films gross more than $85M dollars opening weekend (domestically)?

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

2. Will at least three films gross more than $37.5M opening day?

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

3. Will at least 2 films make more than $800M WW by the end of the game?

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

4. Will at least 3 films, listed as a comedy by Box Office Mojo make more than $100M dollars this winter?

(The films that qualify for this question include: A.C.O.D., Bad Milo!, Zero Charisma, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Last Vegas, About Time, Best Man Down, A Case of You, The Best Man Holiday, Nebraska, Delivery Man, Inside Llewyn Davis, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Her, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, August: Osage County, and Ride Along)

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

5. Will the combined grosses of the top 2 films add up to more than the combined gross of films that land in spots #3 - #9?

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

6. Of the following movies currently listed as being released in a limited amount of theaters, which will be the highest grossing?

Twelve Years A Slave, American Hustle, or Saving Mr. Banks

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

7. Of the following movies currently listed as being released in a limited amount of theaters, which will be the lowest grossing?

Her, Nebraska, or Dallas Buyers Club

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

8. Will the November opening weekend record be broken by more than $25M? (The current record holder is The Twilight Saga: New Moon with $142,839,137.)

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

9. Will the December opening weekend record be broken by more than $10M? (The current record holder is The Hobbit with $84,617,303.)

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

10. Which combination of movies will gross the most amount of money during the game?

A. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Twelve Years A Slave, All Is Lost, & Old Boy

B. The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Last Vegas, & The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

C. Thor: The Dark World, Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, & Frozen

Answer it correctly: 10,000 points

Answer it incorrectly: lose 5,000 points

Abstain: 2,500 points

Weekly Questions (160,000 + potential bonus points)

Every week, there will be 10 questions that must be answered by Thursday night at 11:59 PM PST. The deadline will always be the same, regardless of when movies are released and whatever else is going on that week (including Holidays). Anywhere from 2-3 bonus questions will be included every week. The points on those will vary.

 

SOTM Questions (50,000 points)

There will be 5 Spur Of The Moment questions. Each will be worth 10,000 points.

So that pretty much covers everything. You have less than 2 weeks to get all of your preseason answers in. If you have any suggestions or questions, please post them here.

 

Good luck everyone!

 

1) Yes... by a smidge. Hobbit 2 - $86 million, Thor 2 - $93.5 million, Catching Fire - $183 million 

2) No, only 2 will (Catching Fire and possibly Thor 2) 

3) Honestly, I would guess... yes (Thor 2, Catching Fire, and Hobbit 2 all have a nice shot) 

4) Yes, possibly even 4 

5) No, more like 3-6  :)

6) Saving Mr. Banks

7) Dallas Buyers Club (Her has WB's marketing power)

8) Yes I'm going to predict at least $165 million for CF

9) No, but there's a good chance it will be broken (Avatar 2 and Star Wars 7 would dominate thou) 

10) I have C as the winner with a cumulative prediction of $845 million for all 5 releases 

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laguy03 Box Office Gold

laguy03

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Wait! Both American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks are supposed to go wide at the end of december (and maybe the others will expand too)

 

Am I simply supposed to predict highest/lowest grossing of this film wheter they will go wide or not? 

 

Yes. I feel very confident that 12 Years a Slave will also go wide at some point. There is a really good chance that the 3 films listed in #7 will go wide as well.

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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Predict the order and grosses of the top 15 films released between October 4th, 2013 and January 20th, 2014.

 

 

 I just want to double check, CWACOM2 isn't going to count right?

 

Obviously the opening week wouldn't count becauses it's pre October 4th, but there is a pretty good chance of its post 4th gross still being good enough for the top 15.

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The Stingray Global Phenomenon

The Stingray

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Sucks to say, but I don't have time to play. Moving to La, working, school, internship, its just bad timing.

 

Hope everyone has fun, Ill see you in the top 10 in next years summer game though ;)

That's some shitty priorities you got there man. You gotta boil it down to the essentials. Its like Cube says, Life ain't nothing but bitches and money!

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laguy03 Box Office Gold

laguy03

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Awww, damnit. If Gravity opens to more than $50M, it has a good shot at Top 5 OW. I had it at #5 up until the last minute, when I switched it out for Frozen. I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens. This is going to be an interesting Fall/Winter movie season.

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

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If Gravity crosses 50 mln IMO it will be for sure in the top 5 OW.

 

Let's assume TH2, Thor 2 and CF are safe, we've still two position free.

 

Besides Gravity, all of you put one or two of these: Anchorman, Frozen, WOWS, Grandpa,  Walter Mitty, Carrie, PA5. 

Remember that Gravity has an incredible 3D share, which these movies won't have ( even if they're in 3D).

 

There's no chance that two of those films will outgross Gravity during their OW.

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laguy03 Box Office Gold

laguy03

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Because Frozen opens on a Wed I put Gravity in as my number 5 OW.  If it tops 50 mill, it might make it in as the 4th highest opening weekend.

 

I didn't even know that Frozen is opening on a Wednesday. That's what I get for doing my Top 18 at the last minute! :

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