A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 400m OS is locked IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 9.8 million $ opening in UK. I think it is quite solid considering it has not been a superb opener in any country. It will have good legs. I am on the other side in China: I would not be too optimistic with CF in China because it opens against Gravity. Still CF will mean fewer screens and HG will have a fan base. If Gravity had released a week earlier then it would have been much better. This is more TDKR and TASM situation. Probably both of them would gross around 50-60M. Situation should be slightly better as we have more screens than last year. On UK I am hoping its legs are as good as domestic and gross around 50m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 400m OS is locked IMO. yah. it barely opened in a leggy market like UK and has 2 big markets to open. Plus few smaller markets. Its playing really strong in several markets as well. More I think 700M WW should happen with oscar boost. Something like 280/420 split can happen for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think GRAVITY already crossed $30M in france I meant 30M after previous weekend. It has dropped slightly harder than what I expected but it should stabilize hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 yah. it barely opened in a leggy market like UK and has 2 big markets to open. Plus few smaller markets. Its playing really strong in several markets as well. More I think 700M WW should happen with oscar boost. Something like 280/420 split can happen for sure. I think it performed well in Europe but not as great as I hope it would. Oz, Brazil, Germany, Spain & Italy results are good but not excellent. Russia is great, Mexico is fantastic, but the nice surprise is France with $32M so far. UK will do great too. But the real watch is on China. Many are hoping it would top Warner's own MoS ($63M) with the slight outside chance of nearing Warner's other smash, PACRIM ($112M). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 PS: Warner got got by China with PACRIM.... $112M, how much of that gets into Warner's hands...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmonaut Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 PS: Warner got got by China with PACRIM.... $112M, how much of that gets into Warner's hands...? 25%...? 28m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) yah. it barely opened in a leggy market like UK and has 2 big markets to open. Plus few smaller markets. Its playing really strong in several markets as well. More I think 700M WW should happen with oscar boost. Something like 280/420 split can happen for sure. Sure the UK is leggy but CF first and then The Hobbit2 will cut its legs and progression. I can see $30 - $35M though if it can stand the test with CF. But Germany and The UK are the two main massive markets for The Hobbit and that's another story. They both made respectively $78M and $80+M with the last Hobbit. Once the sequel is out, every movie that is released in those markets recently will be wiped out and stop producing significant amount of cash suddenly. The Hobbit2 will make between $150 -$200M between those two european markets ! In China, the test will be between it and CF. Edited November 12, 2013 by Ent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 25%...? 28m. Yeah that's what I think too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Sure the UK is leggy but CF first and then The Hobbit2 will cut its legs and progression. I can see $30 - $35M though if it can stand the test with CF. But Germany and The UK are the two main massive markets for The Hobbit and that's another story. They both made respectively $78M and $80+M with the last Hobbit. Once the sequel is out, every movie that is released in those markets recently will be wiped out and stop producing significant amount of cash suddenly. The Hobbit2 will make between $150 -$200M between those two european markets ! In China, the test will be between it and CF. It doesn't work that way, films don't just disappear when another big film opens. You mention The Hobbit, but look at what happened when the last Hobbit opened, the other films didn't go anywhere and had some average drops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) When i say wipe out im not saying they will disappear totally but the amout of cash they were suppose to generate at this stage will be massively reduced because Hobbit take huge amount of market shares from the competition (especially when the target and the size is more or less the same), 3D, IMAX and therefore money in its early stage in those two markets. So if you are a blockbuster released recently around their release date and in direct competition, you'll be hit harder since you make the bulk of your cash in the early stages too. Edited November 12, 2013 by Ent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't see a massive drop, maybe a 5% higher drop when The Hobbit opens and less than that for CF, and Hobbit only opens in a month anyway, so the difference in the total gross will be minimal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) I don't see a massive drop, maybe a 5% higher drop when The Hobbit opens and less than that for CF, and Hobbit only opens in a month anyway, so the difference in the total gross will be minimal. We will see but Hobbit2 is released three weeks after CF and two weeks after Frozen, so legs are still vulnerable for blockbusters that are released in 'leggy' markets around that time. Gravity won't be as impacted as CF by The Hobbit2 surely. But it will be impacted by both CF and Frozen in terms of market shares. Edited November 12, 2013 by Ent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) We will see but Hobbit2 is released three weeks after CF and two weeks after Frozen, so legs are still vulnerable for blockbusters that are released in 'leggy' markets around that time. Gravity won't be as impacted as CF by The Hobbit2 surely. But it will be impacted by both CF and Frozen in terms of market shares. CF, HOBBITS 2 are screen-devouring monsters. Audience will still be discovering GRAVITY but the loss of IMAX screens is the biggest blow to box office longevity for the movie. If Warner could not release this in the summer, they should have released it in September, a month where there is little competition. Imagine what it could do during Sept & October before THOR 2 & CF Edited November 12, 2013 by zackzack 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 If Warner could not release this in the summer, they should have released it in September, a month where there is little competition. Imagine what it could do during Sept & October before THOR 2 & CF Probably less, there is a reason why studios don't open big films in September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) CF, HOBBITS 2 are screen-devouring monsters. Audience will still be discovering GRAVITY but the loss of IMAX screens is the biggest blow to box office longevity for the movie. If Warner could not release this in the summer, they should have released it in September, a month where there is little competition. Imagine what it could do during Sept & October before THOR 2 & CF In terms of scale though, CF has nothing from Hobbit2 and should still show that it coud do better than the likes of the Twilight, Transformers or even the HP's type of gross abroad. One is starting from a predecessor that did $270M, the other from $714M. When you look closely at OS markets for example, Hobbit1 made $80M in both Germany and the UK, it did $40M in France, Australia, Russia and China. Even in small markets like Belgium, it did $8M. It nearly tripled HG os gross and will impact CF progression. It has the potential to finish somowhere between $800 - $900 million OS with massive grosses all around in each single of the european market without counting on an asian expansion. Edited November 12, 2013 by Ent 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Sure the UK is leggy but CF first and then The Hobbit2 will cut its legs and progression. I can see $30 - $35M though if it can stand the test with CF. But Germany and The UK are the two main massive markets for The Hobbit and that's another story. They both made respectively $78M and $80+M with the last Hobbit. Once the sequel is out, every movie that is released in those markets recently will be wiped out and stop producing significant amount of cash suddenly. The Hobbit2 will make between $150 -$200M between those two european markets ! In China, the test will be between it and CF. Regardless of CF, Gravity should do quite a lot more in the UK. It opened to $10m, I don't see it having only a 3x multiplier. $40-50m is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htall90 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Gravity has a different audience older and more male surely then CF so will CF effect it really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyla Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 (edited) Gravity's audience is quite wide (at least as I observed here) I saw a father & a little son & lots of teens & they seem to enjoy it Edited November 14, 2013 by Leyla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Gravity's audience is quite wide (at least as I observed here) I saw a father & a little son & lots of teens & they seem to enjoy it Good to hear that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
