Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[iceroll]

Wait, is the Book Thief doing 7M for the weekend? That's a record, $1,750,000 PTA!!!

Oh I thought that was for About Time.  Haha why was that even included then?

 

Is there a ranking for who has the best prediction?

[GiantCALBears]

So much for all those crazy numbers, good but not spectacular given circumstances. There is a limit to growth in these franchises domestically...

[Magic]

Just as well Disney bought Star Wars to make up for these Marvel flops. 

[GiantCALBears]

CF is going to make this look like a joke but we all knew that already... How about 2x it's opening weekend???

[spizzer]

 

Based on my data for Friday openers:

 

Midnight/Preview Percentage of Opening Day for Marvel Films

 

XMen - 2.7M (13.0%)

X2 - 4.1M (13.0%) 

X3 - 5.9M (13.1%)

XO: Wolverine - 5.0M (14.5%)

FC - 3.4M (15.8%)

TW - 4.0M (19.4%)

 

SM1 - 7.0M (17.8%)

SM3 - 16.7%

 

TIH - 3.2M (15.0%)

Thor - 3.8M (14.9%)

CA - 4.0M (15.6%)

 

IM1 - 5.3M (15.0%)

IM2 - 7.5M (14.6%)

IM3 - 15.6M (22.7%)

 

TA - 18.7M (23.1%)

 

The rule for Marvel films used to be that midnight gross equals ~15% (+/-) of total OD gross.  The introduction of 3D AND Thursday previews has driven that share upwards.  The new target area has become 20-25%.

 

So, let's look at both ends, following Thor's weekend adjusted IM (IM without preview/midnights) of 2.86

 

Previews = 20%

 

7.1M Previews

28.4M Friday (35.5M Total)

 

81.2M Fri - Sun

88.3M OW

 

 

Previews = 25%

 

7.1M Previews

21.3M Friday (28.4M Total)

 

60.9M Fri - Sun

68.0M OW

 

So a range of 68-88M.  Not very helpful, but it puts the median at right around 78M, in line with what I said earlier.  Looks like I'm losing some money on HSX this weekend.

 

 

Following IM3's Preview to Weekend Ratio, its on pace for 79.2M.

 

Following IM3's Preview-Friday gross ratio (Previews = 22.7% of Friday total), its on pace for a 31.3M Friday (24.2M Friday without previews).

 

With a 24.2M Friday without previews, if it follows Thor's weekend (IM of 2.86 when previews are removed), it will hit 69.1M for the weekend.  Add back in the 7.1M from previews and we are at a weekend total of 76.2M.

 

 

Still early (and TBH I'm still hoping for a miracle and 100M), but again, the previews were a good indicator for a decent Friday range (28-35M).  

Edited November 9, 2013 by spizzer

[lab276]

Lol based how badly im3 was projected opening weekend by these guys they know nothing

I don't remember it getting this bad though.

[Fancyarcher]

Just as well Disney bought Star Wars to make up for these Marvel flops. 

 

 

 

Early numbers. Could be smaller or bigger.

[starkster]

Just as well Disney bought Star Wars to make up for these Marvel flops. 

They should just add iron man to the new star wars movie and be done with it

[Blankments]

Oh I thought that was for About Time.  Haha why was that even included then?

 

Is there a ranking for who has the best prediction?

 

Our teacher just shows anything that's big releasing regardless of release schedule. We predicted 14M for 12YaS back on October 18.

 

The worst prediction ever though that I'll always think back to is 20M for Gravity. What was my class thinking? UGH

[Dementeleus]

Matinees are probably nearly nonexistant since it's a Friday in November.  The Saturday number should be quite a bit better though, probably increase 20%+ from Friday without midnights.

 

$31m Friday (incl. midnights) and an estimated $83m weekend means they're predicting a 28% jump (w/o midnights) from Friday.

[Lordmandeep]

I don't remember it getting this bad though.

Yeah gitesh said 58 million Friday at one point...

[Dementeleus]

The worst prediction ever though that I'll always think back to is 20M for Gravity. What was my class thinking? UGH

 

To be fair to your class, that was everyone's guess until a couple weeks or so before release.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

To be fair to your class, that was everyone's guess until a couple weeks or so before release.

Not mine.

[Lordmandeep]

I don't remember it getting this bad though.

Yeah gitesh said 58 million Friday at one point...

[senmitsuji]

hope people are joking with the "flop" comments lol thor is a d-list superhero. I'm still surprised he has a film franchise

[Lordmandeep]

I going to come back later on when real numbers come in...

[Blankments]

To be fair to your class, that was everyone's guess until a couple weeks or so before release.

 

Eh, I argued with the class that if Prisoners did 20M two weeks before with just Jackman as a star and really dark subject matter, I didn't see how Bullock+Clooney+IMAX 3D with sci-fi thriller elements could just match it

[Chewy]

All updates today that don't come from Rth are basically farts in the wind

[Biggestgeekever]

CF is going to make this look like a joke but we all knew that already... How about 2x it's opening weekend???

Well, that was going to happen even if Thor 2 reached the high end of expectations.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Less than 200 mil, people?,