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CAYOM Year 8 Part 2: BO Predictions (4th Quarter)

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    I'm actually quite glad Resonance is getting good reviews, because I was worried it would be a hit or a miss.

    Well so far there have only been two reviews (mine and Numbers), so there's every possibility that some will find it a miss and its reputation (and OW) will plummet. But both reviews have been more positive than our usual fare (although it's a bit hard to tell with Numbers) so that's what I'm going on for now. 


    I couldn't let you get too optimistic now, could I...?

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    Romeo & Juliet - $29.7m/$143.8m


    The Who's Tommy - $15.2m/$23.7m/$58.6m

    Feed - $36.1m/$104.3m


    Catch That Pigeon - $48.2m/$175.9m


    Madel - $11.4m/$31.5m


    The Gold Rare Leaf - $13.9m/$48.5m

    Identity Crisis - $21.5m/$66.2m


    Killer Computer 2 - $3.3m/$5.8m


    Death Note: The Game Begins - $45.1m/$142.6m


    Cinema Studies - $17.8m/$70.4m


    The Valley - $14.6m/$32.6m

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    Ironically I've just finished up my October predictions. It wasn't a particularly interesting month to talk about though. November looks like it'll be a lot more fun.


    October 5-7


    While I doubt it’ll badly flop, I don’t think The Garden will do that well for itself. The first week of October has never been an outstanding weekend for blockbusters, CtP and GRL are still in theatres, the premise of the Garden isn’t anything all that special/interesting and the slightly low (for a CG animated film) 75mil budget isn’t going to do it any favours when it comes to advertising. It should still amass a decent total for the weekend, but I’d be very surprised if this really broke out.


    The Garden- $27.2mil


    October 12-14


    MLP will likely perform along the same level as the other films. I doubt The Garden is going to be big enough to dwarf it, but there’s nothing here that’ll particularly help it stand out from previous entries. However, it does avoid many of the pitfalls The Garden hits and, being a sequel with a loyal fanbase, it's unlikely to be hurt by the decent number of animated films currently out.


    MLP- $18.2mil


    October 19-21


    Like MLP, I don’t have any real reason to believe Behemoth will perform much worse/better than its predecessor. Leviathan didn’t have bad enough reviews to hurt its sequel, but it didn’t have outstanding enough reviews to help create more of an audience. It’s not particularly in a prime release spot, but it’s not a bad one either. There's a possibility it may get some extra audience from being the first blockbuster in a while, but it may equally be hurt by the release of Dragon Age in a few weeks, which many people will likely save their cash for.


    The Deadline may do well for itself, but it may also be hurt by the recent release (and decent box office performance) of Cinema Studies. At the moment, I’d probably say it performs at about the same level as CS.


    Not sure about Flappy Bird. Are people regularly play those sorts of games really going to be that interested in going to see a documentary? I’d probably say it does about whatever most others documentaries get.


    Behemoth- $26.3mil

    The Deadline- $11.1mil

    Flappy Bird- Around whatever most other docs get.


    October 26-28th


    The Mansion is not going to have a good opening weekend. Simple as. People are going to save their horror movie cash for Halloween. But that’s part of the plan and obviously where the real battle as to whether this movie will be a success lies.


    While I should technically save this stuff for next weekend’s predictions, I’ve already got enough to talk about there with that movie pileup, so I might as well discuss the competition for Halloween between The Mansion and Freddy vs Jason vs Ash here. And I’m pretty sure the latter is going to take it.


    Firstly, it stars two huge horror icons and one mid-level one (although marketing can push that up), each of whom could probably pull off a good BO performance, let alone together. Secondly, it actually releases on Halloween rather than lingering a few days and risking middling/bad WOM and/or using up potential audience (because anyone who goes to see The Mansion over the weekend is more likely to turn to the new release to watch on Halloween). Thirdly, The Mansion doesn’t really lend itself to great marketing. The title’s rather plain and the ‘creepy child does creepy things’ plot has been done to death. While the Conjuring did manage to perform well with similar problems, it was also helped by insanely positive WOM and being the only horror release in quite a while. The Mansion definitely doesn’t have the latter advantage and, while positive WOM could really help it, I’d be surprised if it reached Conjuring levels, or levels high enough to serious hurt FvJvA.


    The Mansion- $7.9mil

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    My predictionsThe garden- 31/97.5My little pony- 23/80Behemoth- 19/50The deadline- 16/58Flappy bird- 5/18The mansion- 6/15The innocent- 38m totalDonuts- 23m total

    Edited by FrozenFilms
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    Flappy bird- 5/18

    Assuming you're talking millions there, it's not going to reach that high. In real life, that would put it in the top 13 highest grossing documentaries of all time, a spot reserved only for documentaries about politics, famous popstars and adorable animals. 

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    Assuming you're talking millions there, it's not going to reach that high. In real life, that would put it in the top 13 highest grossing documentaries of all time, a spot reserved only for documentaries about politics, famous popstars and adorable animals. 


    But then it also has the 4th widest Documentary opening of all time

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    But then it also has the 4th widest Documentary opening of all time

    It's still really not going to make that much. The audience of iphone games and the audience of documentaries don't have much overlap. Politics films (specifically those biased towards a particular side (because how often do you see a genuinely balanced politic doc making money?)) make money because people like hearing that they're right on a particular issue. Popstar documentaries make money because a lot of popstars have a very obsessive fanbase who will seek out anything to do with said star. (Same reason my DW doc did well). Animal docs do well because people like watching cute animals.


    Flappy Bird, while having a sizable userbase, does not have nearly as many obsessed fans and very few people are going to be all that interested in seeing a doc about it, no matter how many theatres you release it in.

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    Here are November's predicts.


    November 2-4


    This weekend is Dragon Age's. No fraction of a doubt about that. Whether it will have any increase on the previous films is probably up to the reviews, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't hit $75+ OW. My only concern is the lengthy running time which may cut back on the number of possibly showings, but the other Dragon Ages were long as well so I'm sure it's just unwarranted worry.


    The Bronx is Burning should do pretty for itself I think. Certainly being paired with Dragon Age means it won't break out, but the two have little in common, TBiB is a Scorsese Oscar movie and a sports movie in a year pretty short on them, so I'm sure it can stand on its own.


    Already talked in detail about how I think Halloween is going to go, so I won't talk about that. I doubt FvJvA is going to have a very strong weekend thanks to a) Halloween and b ) the natural frontloadedness of Horrors, but, being a horror, there's enough different to it that it won't really be in competition with Dragon Age and, with good reviews, it could bring forward a respectable total. Still probably going to be last though.


    The only film that's really in direct competition with Dragon Age as a blockbuster is The Creators and it is going to be crushed. Neither Ryan Reynolds nor Chris Pine have shown themselves to be reliable box office draws (both in real life and in this game (remember Stranger in a Strange Land) and I'd be surprised if most people don't realise the premise is pretty much stolen from the Simpsons. 


    Dragon Age: Awakening- $84.6mil

    The Creators- $23.6mil

    The Bronx is Burning- $20.9mil

    Freddy vs Jason vs Ash- $8.2mil/$44.9mil for the week



    November 9-11th


    The Concert's End's success will likely depend on how much Oscar buzz it can garner up. As it is though, it's likely to be swallowed up by Dragon Age and the Bronx is Burning.


    The Concert's End- $17.3mil



    November 16-18


    Origin feasibly could do well, but I doubt it. This year has been pretty good for Sci-Fi and there hasn't been a new one for a while. On the other hand, there's every possibility people could see this as another Pompeii (the real life version, not the CAYOM one), with a poor director in charge obviously trying to rip off the success of similar films (Titanic-esque disaster films for Pompeii, Avatar for Origin) and go and see Dragon Age again instead. Considering the not particularly great-for-marketing budget/title/base premise (which shouldn't include the twist), I'm leaning towards the latter.


    If the Giver receives many positive reviews like mine, however, it could really break out. The premise is original, it's based on a well-acclaimed book and the success of the Hunger Games and Divergent has shown that there's definitely an audience for those sorts of kinda-sorta-dystopian future films and they're pretty rare this year.


    The Giver- $32.1mil

    Origin- $25.3mil 


    November 21-25


    I'm loath to say it, but Simpsons is taking this weekend by a long way. As much as we on the internet bitch and moan about the newer series, the brand is still a very strong one and I don't think there's been enough competition in the animation department to seriously dent it. Unfortunate Events and poor reviews might damage it slightly and legs are questionable, but it's going to have a huge weekend.


    Unfortunate Events is going to take much more of a hit though. This was a bad time to release it. Any family movie going up against the Simpsons is going to be slaughtered. I don't think it'll flop, it's built up too much of a fanbase with the previous films, and the legs are likely to be much better than The Simpsons, but it's not going to have a good weekend. 


    Two-Way Road is also unlikely to make much of a splash. The Oscar-Baity competition is very very big and it doesn't have all that much that makes it stand out from the crowd. 


    The Simpsons- $62.6mil(21-23)/$88.9mil(20-23)/$103.1mil(20-25)

    Unfortunate Events- $29.6mil/$48.3mil

    Two-Way Road- $6.5mil/$8.7mil

    Edited by Za Rukaio!
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    $15.8M is so low for The Creators, which is a major animated tent pole release. 

    It's animated?! Holy crap, I genuinely did not notice that....


    Okay, I'm pushing up my prediction to $23.6mil. It's still going to take a huge hit from being in competition with Dragon Age though, and the animation market is pretty damn crowded at the moment, so I'd still doubt it does very good business. And the Simpsons comparisons will only increase.

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    Okay, since I'm going to be out all day, I'll finish up my predictions now.


    November 30- December 2


    No new releases this week and Simpsons is pretty likely to take it. However, the two limited releases, Donut and The Innocent have expanded enough that I might as well talk about them.


    Donut... I have no idea how it's going to perform. Will people like it, will they hate it, I couldn't tell you. I'm hoping the latter, but last time I said that Killer Computer 2 ended up outgrossing its predecessor...


    The Innocent, meanwhile, has had its limited release work against it with the very poor WOM it's been getting. And the generic title/premise is unlikely to do much for the general audience. 


    Donut- $fuck if I know

    The Innocent- $13.4m


    December 7-9


    I think Dracula will do pretty well for itself. It's been over a month since Halloween and a big budget horror could make a nice change from all the family blockbusters/Oscar dramas. The last Dracula movie performed pretty well and I think the curiosity factor of Tom Cruise as Van Helsing may get to a lot of people (I know it would for me). It will be pretty frontloaded though, especially as Christmas rolls by, so don't expect much in the way of legs.


    Hairspray didn't perform particularly well when it was released in March. This will be no different. 


    Dracula- $56.2m

    Hairspray: Shimmer More- $5.2m


    December 12-14


    I suspect The Little Mermaid will be the family movie to see this Christmas. It's based off a well-known brand, Emma Watson is popular, Liam Neeson even more so considering Resonance and being a live action family movie will stop it from getting bogged down by all the animation released this quarter. The only issue is that making it a direct sequel could alienate fans who haven't seen the Disney classic or turn off people who don't like the shift from animated to live action.


    Avatar, on the other hand, has a small but loyal fanbase, so I doubt it'll be hurt too much by The Little Mermaid's success, or the abundance of animation this quarter. It certainly won't break out either and the close relation to the series may make it difficult for new fans to get in, but it should still make a respectable total.


    The Little Mermaid- $84.3m

    Avatar: The Last Airbender: The Search- $20.4m


    December 21-25


    I honestly think Mushishi has the makings of a real breakout hit here. It's an adult focused blockbuster (meaning it won't clash with The Little Mermaid much) in a year with few of them, yet still has enough to appeal to young teens turned off by TLM. It has an interesting premise which works well for marketing. It has the possibility of creating quite a lot of Oscar buzz and the impressive and unique visuals are potentially a major selling point, like with Avatar or Gravity. Also, like DN, I'm confident enough in it to think that WOM will be good. If things go well, the Dec 19th release date should allow it to build up good WOM for when Christmas eventually strikes.


    Wallace and Gromit, on the other hand, is not going to do well. W&G is not that popular in America (as shown by Wererabbit only taking a $16m opening weekend) and the close ties to A Matter of Loaf and Death will only alienate audiences more. And between The Little Mermaid taking the family audience and Mushishi taking the adults, W&G is going to be completely shut out. Expect it to be a distant third behind Mushishi and The Little Mermaid.


    As for the Normans, I said it in the review thread and I'll say it again here. Who the fuck goes to see a history documentary at Christmas?


    Mushishi- $59.6m (21-23)/$90.2m (19-23)/$112.8m (19-25)

    Wallace and Gromit: Christmas- $12.3m/$21.8m/$29.1m

    The Normans- $350k/$500k/$650k


    December 28- January 1


    Only release worth talking about is Flowers for Algernon. It might do okay. Depends on how much hype it builds through it's limited release. 


    Flowers for Algernon- $13.2m/$19.3m

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    The Normans- 5/27

    You're still ridiculously overpredicting your documentaries, I see.


    Also, what happened to November?

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    Please More people do predictions as me and rukaio are the only ones to do so this quarter

    I will when my reviews are all posted which shouldn't take too long. I'm close to,done. Expect them this afternoon. I still need to figure out the stories of some the newer films.
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     Also, what happened to November?

    I thought I did themAnywayThe creators- 26/75Dragon age: awakening- 95/224The Bronx is burning- 16/83Freddie vs Jason vs ash- 44.6M first week (31/13) and 67m totalThe concerts end- 14.7/67.1The giver- 48/146 (predicting big breakout for this)Origin- 17/56Two way road- 10/36Simpsons 2: the ride- 113/275Lemony snicket- 53/140
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