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2011 Best Picture Predicts

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Is that % a fact? It's possible last year a few films nominated missed the 5% first votes. It was because many in the industry really loved two films: The Social Network and The King's Speech. Also, the auteur votes went totally to support Aranofski's Black Swan and Coen's True Grit. Inception also probably got many more than that 5%.

The massive support for this films probably did hurt the first votes % of 127 hours / TKAAR / Winter's bone. So we could had only seven nominees.

This year is very different. There are no big frontrunners (Social Network), not classic academy options (The King speech), not mainstream well loved films (Inception), not respected directors scoring amazing successes people don't stop talking about (True grit and Black Swan).

2011 is a very divisive year and we can easily get 9/10 noms. I can't see any film collecting more than 25% of the first votes.

I'm sorry, but is nearly 170m not a mainstream well loved movie anymore? The Help says hi.

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The Help will take that one away.

Not enough of the appeal. I know that The Help is shoo-in but you can`t compare.

However, worse than BP snub is going to be PGA one. DH2 should not only get this nomination but win for the whole series because that`s what PGA really stands for - awarding great production deals. And this is the biggest franchise in the world. It won`t egt even nominated because they`ll try to convince us that The Artist and such little-seen stuff is better business.

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Not enough of the appeal. I know that The Help is shoo-in but you can`t compare.

However, worse than BP snub is going to be PGA one. DH2 should not only get this nomination but win for the whole series because that`s what PGA really stands for - awarding great production deals. And this is the biggest franchise in the world. It won`t egt even nominated because they`ll try to convince us that The Artist and such little-seen stuff is better business.

The PGA votes for what they think is Best Picture, not Best Business Deal.

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This year is shaping up to be the Year of Nostalgia. THE ARTIST, HUGO, and WAR HORSE are all fond love-letters to older Hollywood (either directly or indirectly), and TREE OF LIFE and THE HELP look back (fondly, with some misgivings) on America's mid-century past. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is a vision of the past, almost literally. Of the front-runners, only THE DESCENDANTS and MONEYBALL are firmly in The Now, both thematically and creatively.

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Sasha Stone is bringing the crazy in full steam:

So move over The Artist because War Horse has just taken the lead. The Oscar race is a Baby Race that takes place right now, two weeks from today they turn in their nomination ballots. And if they all emerged from the Academy theater soggy, sobbing wrecks well, we can expect War Horse to take a huge chunk of nominations. It’s the Year of the Sappy Period Flick, and if you thought The King’s Speech was sappy, well honey, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/12/oscar-ballots-mailed-to-voters-today-as-war-horse-reclaims-the-lead-in-the-best-picture-race/

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