Blankments Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 But honestly, I'm more surprised that ALTDF, a fun little filler I sort of dumped in February, is actually #2. In fact, everyone but Numbers seemed to really like it. Maybe a dark horse campaign for JLaw in Best Supporting Actress is in store... I didn't review this year, but I read that one and loved it Curious to see where MLP would've fallen if I hadn't revealed it was a copy+paste. Thanks for the Army of Two mention though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 (edited) Okay, I said I was going to do an Oscar Special so I am. I'm going to go over each category and look at which films I think have the best chance of being nominated/winning. Because I like talking about things like I know what I'm doing. Naturally, since Numbers, Spaghetti and Hiccup haven't yet done their lists, nothing is set in stone and there's plenty of room for things to change. These are just my predictions from what I've already seen looking at top lists and review threads. I'd also note that my personal choices will probably end up differing from who I think will probably win. We'll start biggest with Best Picture. Pretty much locked for nomination The Giver Duh. It's currently the highest scoring film in the critical consensus and the only one to appear in the Top 5 for all three lists. The Giver is a pretty obvious frontrunner at this point. Whether the hype will it for last is not entirely certain (although I suspect it will), but its nomination is basically confirmed. Likely to be nominated The Legend of Redwall The Bronx is Burning Mushishi Resonance The highest scorers outside of The Giver, each of these seems pretty likely for nomination. CAYOM has been known to have animated films nominated in the past and the very positive reviews for Redwall puts it in a pretty prime spot. Despite being an animated fantasy story, I think it could pull through a nomination. The Bronx is Burning and Mushishi are both prime Oscar contenders and have been scoring pretty highly across the board. The only possible issue is the lack of Top 5's they've been in so far (1 for Mushishi and none for Bronx). But I'd be surprised if they didn't make it. Resonance is probably the one I'm most iffy about. While it seemed like a near lock in Q3, since then hype for it has died down a bit, especially now there's a lot of competition for it. I still suspect it'll get a nomination, but I'd be surprised if it ends up taking home the gold. Fighting over those last places Cinema Studies The Deadline Hand Drawn Heroes Starcraft: Brood War Flowers for Algernon Ironically, despite every #1 of the year so far being one of his, it's kinda questionable whether Spaghetti will even get a nomination. Each of his films seems to be absolutely adored by 1 or 2 people and either thought of as average, okay or bad by the rest. HDH seems to be the only exception to this, but it's also being overshadowed by Redwall. The one film I think of his that is most likely to get a nomination is below in the 'Dark Horse' category. Out of the live-action blockbuster category, Starcraft is the most likely to take a nom (although Uncharted isn't too close behind). However, with the higher number of straight, more Oscar appropriate films, I don't think it'll make it. Most likely to be a Dark Horse: The Academy I know what you're thinking. It's currently joint 5th on the Critical Consensus. How is it a Dark Horse? Well, I already know that Numbers and Riczhang (if he does a list) both heavily disliked it and it got mixed GA reviews. It's pretty much the Cloud Atlas of CAYOM, you either love it or hate it. And I think the love it side may be able to push it just far enough to get a nomination. It obviously has no chance of winning, but it may sneak a nomination. Most likely winner: The Giver While there's every possibility things will change, this film seems to be the very obvious front runner and a reasonable safe bet. Edited May 1, 2014 by Za Rukaio! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 When looking at films like The Academy, I always try to see both the pros and the cons. For one, the technical aspects, acting, and scope feel superb but the story is all over the place and does't really have any time for anyone to breate and think over. I agree it is like Cloud Atlas. I hust don't think it has the right material yo make it an a+ movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 Best Animated Film comes next. Also, in light of Spaghetti's list, I've added Flowers to Algernon to the 'Fighting over those last places' section in Best Picture. Pretty much locked for nomination The Legend of Redwall Hand Drawn Heroes Again, duh. Both of these have excellent reviews across the board Fighting over those last places Catch the Pigeon Thomas was Alone Chessmen The Creators I think these four are the only other animated movies (aside from Film's contributions) to be released this year. (If I've missed one, someone tell me). Ironically, there are only 3 remaining places available. Out of the 4, I'd say Thomas was Alone and Catch the Pigeon are the most likely to get a nom, the former due to having a fanatic fanbase to balance out the other more middling reviews and the latter because it seems to be getting solid (albeit not outstanding) reviews across the board. As for who will take the last place between Chessmen and the Creators, it could be either. I have no idea. Potential Dark Horses: Any of Film's films. It's possible, Films. Most likely winner: The Legend of Redwall Again, at the moment, it's the obvious frontrunner. There's every possibility things could change though. I think I'll go for Best Actor next. That should be interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 This is definitely my year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 And here comes Best Actor Pretty much locked for nomination Colin Ferrell- Mushishi Stanley Tucci- The Bronx is Burning Liam Neeson- Resonance Jared Leto- Flowers for Algernon Ferrell, Tucci and Neeson are all the leading men in the big Oscar contenders this year and all are given more than enough to shine and make them worthy of a nomination. As for Leto, Flowers is practically a platform for him to get this nomination and is quite competent enough film that I think it'll work. Fighting over those last places Preston Bailey- The Giver Nicholas Hoult- The Who's Tommy Orlando Bloom- Midnight in the Afghan Valley Ezra Miller- The Deadline Zac Efron- Death Note: The Game Begins Bailey's potential nomination comes from being in one of the biggest Oscar front runners, but there's not too much to his character and he's still a kid, so I'm sceptical as to whether he'll be able to get that nom. The other four, on the other hand, are in vehicles that really give them a full chance to shine and work for that nom, but that otherwise aren't as successful as they need to be to make their nominations definite. Who'll take that last spot? I have no idea. Potential Dark Horse: Robert Downey Jr- The Dresden Files: Stormfront It could happen. RDJ got quite a bit of praise, plenty of room to shine and it's not as if people haven't been nominated for blockbusters before. He's not going to win, but he could snatch a nom. Most Likely Winner: No idea Honestly, any of the four at the top could take it and I'd understand. While obviously they're all standouts from the pack, none of them standout from each other enough to make me think they're definitely going to win. It's going to make voting a pain, let me tell you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Films Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Your breakdowns are really interestingI am looking forward to reading the documentary breakdown as i could actually win something for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 And I suppose Best Actress must follow. Not that wide a selection to pick from this year, let me tell you. Pretty much locked for nomination Isla Fisher- Flowers for Algernon Anna Sophia Robb- Cinema Studies Sigourney Weaver- Mushishi Mia Wasikowska- Two Way Road I'm very confident these four will make it in, if only because there's barely anyone really eligible. Cinema Studies and Two Way Road are both reasonably successful vehicles for their stars, Fisher has plenty to do in Flowers to stretch her acting chops and, while Sigourney has the smallest part by far, it's also probably the most meaty role and gives her plenty to make her shine (metaphorically and literally). Fighting over those last places Rose Byrne- The Who's Tommy Natalie Portman- Dracula These two are here because there's not really anyone else.... (in an eligible-ish role) Potential Dark Horse(s): Jessica Chastain- The Dresden Files: Stormfront/Jennifer Lawrence- A Love to Die For Couldn't decide which of these two was the most likely and/or biggest dark horse, so I put them down. Like RDJ, they're from blockbuster movies, but they put in a good performance and, considering how small the field is, there's every opportunity for one of them to slip in and steal that final nom from Byrne/Portman. Most Likely Winner: Isla Fisher... maybe Like Best Actor, this one's very close, specifically between Fisher, Robb and Weaver. Robb has the biggest role but, on the other hand, her role as viewpoint character leaves her with a lot of scenes where she doesn't have much to do to shine. Weaver, on the other hand, is the opposite, having the smallest role, but plenty to do with it and a real chance to make an impression with her short screentime. Fisher is more of a compromise between the two, not having too little screentime, but also still having a good amount of meat the role, so I went for her. It's more than possible for either of the three to to take it though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Has an animated film been nominated for Best Picture in Cayom history? I have a good feeling legend will be nominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Yes Wings of Icarus (Year 1) To the Moon (Year 6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Also, I think Spark made it to the tiebreaker round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 (edited) I think I'll do Best Leading Voice Actor/Actress next. Pretty much locked for nomination Jessie Eisenberg- The Legend of Redwall Neil Patrick Harris- Hand Drawn Heroes Do I really need to say why? Fighting for the remaining spots Demi Lovato- Hard to Find Andy Serkis- Catch the Pigeon Nicholas Hoult- Chessmen Jay Baruchel- The Creators These guys are here because they're pretty much the only ones left, outside of Film's films. HtF and CtP were well received enough that I'd be surprised is Lovato and Serkis don't make it in. (Ironically, both films are currently drawing on the Critical Consensus) As for which one won't make it in, I'd probably say Jay Baruchel over Hoult since the latter has a much meatier role. It's not entirely sure though. Potential Dark Horse (for the Winner): Andy Serkis There's little point in talking about potential nomination Dark Horses since there are so few other entries, so instead I'm going to to talk about the Dark Horses to take the Oscar itself. One thing I noticed going through the nominations is that many of the entries seem to be the awkward, insecure character like Eisenberg, NPH, Hoult and Baruchel and I think Serkis could end up bypassing them all by offering something completely new and enjoyably fun. In addition, playing multiple parts in the same movie may give him an extra subtle edge to leapfrog his opponents to the gold. He's still a dark horse though, especially since he might not even get a nomination... Most Likely to Win: No idea It's probably going to be either Eisenberg or NPH (unless Serkis Dark Horses them), but the two roles are so similar I honestly can't separate them. I think I'm going to take a brief break from actors and take a look at Best Director next. Edited May 1, 2014 by Za Rukaio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Films Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I think I'll do Best Leading Voice Actor/Actress next. Pretty much locked for nomination Jessie Eisenberg- The Legend of RedwallNeil Patrick Harris- Hand Drawn Heroes Do I really need to say why? Fighting for the remaining spots Demi Lovato- Hard to FindAndy Serkis- Catch the PigeonNicholas Hoult- ChessmenJay Baruchel- The Creators These guys are here because they're pretty much the only ones left, outside of Film's films. HtF and CtP were well received enough that I'd be surprised is Lovato and Serkis don't make it in. (Ironically, both films are currently drawing on the Critical Consensus) As for which one won't make it in, I'd probably say Jay Baruchel over Hoult since the latter has a much meatier role. It's not entirely sure though. Potential Dark Horse (for the Winner): Andy Serkis There's little point in talking about potential nomination Dark Horses since there are so few other entries, so instead I'm going to to talk about the Dark Horses to take the Oscar itself. One thing I noticed going through the nominations is that many of the entries seem to be the awkward, insecure character like Eisenberg, NPH, Hoult and Baruchel and I think Serkis could end up bypassing them all by offering something completely new and enjoyably fun. In addition, playing multiple parts in the same movie may give him an extra subtle edge to leapfrog his opponents to the gold. He's still a dark horse though, especially since he might not even get a nomination... Most Likely to Win: No idea It's probably going to be either Eisenberg or NPH (unless Serkis Dark Horses them), but the two roles are so similar I honestly can't separate them. I think I'm going to take a brief break from actors and take a look at Best Director next.I also wouldn't rule out George clooney for the Normans which was a voice only role. The film is getting some buzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I don't think documentary narrations are eligible, Films. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I also wouldn't rule out George clooney for the Normans which was a voice only role. The film is getting some buzz Ineligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I also wouldn't rule out George clooney for the Normans which was a voice only role. The film is getting some buzz Don't think so. Generally the voice actor has to play an actual character, not just a narrator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 Like I promised, here's Best Director Pretty much locked for nomination David Lynch- The Giver Martin Scorsese- The Bronx is Burning Guillermo del Toro- Mushishi Darren Aronofsky- Resonance These are pretty much the big four live action films for this year's Oscars. So it goes without saying that they'll probably be nominated. Especially Lynch, Del Toro and Aronofsky, since the effectiveness of their films lies very much on their direction. Fighting over the remaining spots Soren Ville- The Legend of Redwall Tim Burton- Flowers for Algernon Richard Linklater- The Deadline Danny Boyle- The Who's Tommy Rash & Fixon- Cinema Studies The remaining nomination is pretty much going to be a free-for-all between every other Oscar eligible film. Who wins? Hell if I know. Potential Dark Horse: Andrew Niccols- The Academy/Shane Black- Dresden Files: Storm Front Dresden Files seems to be appearing in this section a lot. But it's a popular film and there was a lot of talk in reviews about how perfectly suited Black was to this film, so it's possible he could get a nom. (I doubt it though. The competition in this specific category is very strong. But hey, that's why it's called a Dark Horse.) Niccols is here for the same reason The Academy is the dark horse of the Best Picture nom. Most Likely Winner: Lynch or Del Toro (although I wouldn't rule out Aronofsky) Again, a pretty close one to decide. Like I mentioned before, the effectiveness of The Giver, Mushishi and Resonance lies much heavier on their direction than Bronx so that'll probably shut Scorsese out of the win. And, of the three, Resonance is (currently) the least favourite by a small margin. So it comes down to Lynch vs Del Toro. Despite Bronx rising in the rankings, I still think The Giver is going to win Best Picture, thanks to appearing in 4 Top 5's. On the other hand, I suspect Mushishi may be able to sweep the technical categories and possibly pull a Gravity for the Best Director award. So it's pretty uncertain which'll take it. But, like I said, I'm not ruling out Aronofsky to come from behind and take it. I'm going to take a short break now. When I come back, I'm either going to do Supporting Actor, Screenplay or something like Ensemble or Action. Although I might end up going to bed. It's getting pretty late. If I do then the first topic I'll probably do is Best Original Score so if you're planning on adding a small description of your score to the FYC page, like some people have, I'd do it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Best Animated Film comes next. Also, in light of Spaghetti's list, I've added Flowers to Algernon to the 'Fighting over those last places' section in Best Picture. Pretty much locked for nomination The Legend of Redwall Hand Drawn Heroes Again, duh. Both of these have excellent reviews across the board Fighting over those last places Catch the Pigeon Thomas was Alone Chessmen The Creators I think these four are the only other animated movies (aside from Film's contributions) to be released this year. (If I've missed one, someone tell me). Ironically, there are only 3 remaining places available. Out of the 4, I'd say Thomas was Alone and Catch the Pigeon are the most likely to get a nom, the former due to having a fanatic fanbase to balance out the other more middling reviews and the latter because it seems to be getting solid (albeit not outstanding) reviews across the board. As for who will take the last place between Chessmen and the Creators, it could be either. I have no idea. Potential Dark Horses: Any of Film's films. It's possible, Films. Most likely winner: The Legend of Redwall Again, at the moment, it's the obvious frontrunner. There's every possibility things could change though. I think I'll go for Best Actor next. That should be interesting. don't count out my animated adaptations. Gonna to sneak in a nod for Avatar (Which was actually adapted..., not just a plain old copy-and-paste like I'd usually do.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) don't count out my animated adaptations. Gonna to sneak in a nod for Avatar (Which was actually adapted..., not just a plain old copy-and-paste like I'd usually do.) Knew I'd forgotten something. I think Avatar has every chance of getting a nom. MLP, on the other hand, is more unlikely. Anyway, I know I said I was going to Best Original Score when I woke up, but I feel like doing Best Original Screenplay instead. Because it'll be easier. Pretty much locked for nomination Resonance Cinema Studies These two are the biggest Oscar contenders up for this category and I'm relatively sure they'll make the nomination. The only thing holding Resonance back is the fact that a large part of its effectiveness comes from its mindfuckery nature rather than its screenwriting. But it should still make the nom Fighting over the remaining places The Deadline Midnight in the Afghan Valley Life The Concert's End Two Way Road Because they're pretty much the only other Oscary contending nominees left with at least decentish reviews. At the moment I'm leaning towards Deadline, Two Way Road and either Concert or Afghan. Potential Dark Horse: The Academy At least I assume this is an original screenplay. (You really need to add it to your FYC page, Spaghetti). Anyway, same reasons it's the Dark Horse for Best Picture apply here. Most Likely Winner: Cinema Studies Like I said, Resonance is more about the mindfuck while CS is about the writing. So I wouldn't be surprised if it took it. It's popular enough. Edited May 2, 2014 by Za Rukaio! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 If both my movies get into screenplay, I'm more than happy. Nothing in this game rewards the player more than the screenplay Oscar, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
