Weekend Estimates: The Hobbit - 73.6M | Frozen - 22.2M | Madea - 16M

[The Stingray]

Funny how this number is now good.  Because RTH posted a low end of 26 and it comes it at 31, it's good.  But it's still a significant drop from the first.  It's pretty much what many of predicted who said it would come in at about 275-280 mill.  So the number is in line what was predicted from people saying the gross would drop.  

I don't get it tho. I had it at 275m, but I thought the OW would be bigger (86m). Shouldn't a sequel be more frontloaded?

[RthDeadWov]

What about ILD?

 

And what happened to SMB numbers for Thursday night? Where did they go?

ILD about same as SMB, thu not sure

[druv10]

If RTH had said that the Friday number was close to 35 and then it came in at 31-32, people would be calling for the Apocalypse.  

 

You do have a good point. Had 31.5-32.5M been established first nobody would be clamoring it a success but 26M really brought down the expectation. This is BO forums where everything is so fickle. 

Edited December 14, 2013 by druv10

[baumer]

Have you seen it? Your thoughts.

 

You don't want to know what I thought of it.

[ecstasy]

ILD about same as SMB, thu not sure

 

Thanks Rth.

[AdamKendall]

Yes, 280 is definitely fine for a movie that is coming off a film that pleased many and angered many.

I still don't get the 'angered many' thing though ... every online metric shows it to be well received in general by the public. 

 

... and if we ignore those metrix, we should just never use any online talk 'public feelings' in general.

 

Basically 280 would be about 7-8% drop ...

Edited December 14, 2013 by Adam

[kayumanggi]

AUJ got an A cinemascore.

[baumer]

I don't get it tho. I had it at 275m, but I thought the OW would be bigger (86m). Shouldn't a sequel be more frontloaded?

 

The sequel, if the first is now overly well received,drops.  In this case, I don't think it will drop that much (I predicted 275) because the LOTR loonies are sizable.  But the opening is also where I predicted as well.

[kayumanggi]

You don't want to know what I thought of it.

 

lol Did you hate it?

[eXtacy]

The sequel, if the first is now overly well received,drops.  In this case, I don't think it will drop that much (I predicted 275) because the LOTR loonies are sizable.  But the opening is also where I predicted as well.

 

Whats your opinion on the LOTR films. Do you like them?

[baumer]

Here's my first post in the under 280 thread:

 

Why not, right?  This isn't even a 10% drop so I think this is being generous for DOS.  The Hobbit did fine but it didn't endear itself to everyone.  I know LOTR has some of the looniest fans out there but The Hobbit really was a divisive film.  So loved it and some hated it.  I think this is the film that pays the price for the average effort of the first.  If Smaug is good, then I'm sure the third one will come back much stronger, but make no mistake about it, the story never should have been divided into three movies.  

 

There is also some decent competition for it this year.  Anchorman 2 opens the week after and then Ronin on Christmas Day, along with Jack Ryan.  I think there will be a lot of people who sit this one out and wait for HV.

 

OW:  75 mill

Total:  270 mill

[Dementeleus]

Yes, it might be close but I personally think (and I could be wrong) that multipliers this time won't be as strong.  Call it a gut feeling.

 

My gut feeling leans just the opposite... which is maybe because my gut liked it and your gut didn't.

[kayumanggi]

[baumer]

lol Did you hate it?

 

 

Whats your opinion on the LOTR films. Do you like them?

 

 

Only because you guys asked:

 

Yes, I hated The Hobbit 2.  It bored me and none of the characters interested me in the least.

 

As for my feelings on the LOTR films, FOTR is in my top 10 films of all time.  I simply adore that film.  TTT was a bit of a let down even though Minas Tirith was insanely good and ROTK fell even further.  Both films rank about a 7/10 for me.  But the thing about the sequels is that for all their flaws, I can watch them anytime and never be bored.  And that's because I was much more invested in the characters.  With the Hobbit, I feel nothing towards the dwarves.  Nothing.  And both films have really bored me to the point where I fell asleep in the first one and wanted to walk out of the second.

[baumer]

My gut feeling leans just the opposite... which is maybe because my gut liked it and your gut didn't.

 

Sorry pal, but I disagree.  I don't say this based on my love or hate for it.  I just see no reason for the multiplier to be better this time around.

[kayumanggi]

Only because you guys asked:

 

Yes, I hated The Hobbit 2.  It bored me and none of the characters interested me in the least.

 

As for my feelings on the LOTR films, FOTR is in my top 10 films of all time.  I simply adore that film.  TTT was a bit of a let down even though Minas Tirith was insanely good and ROTK fell even further.  Both films rank about a 7/10 for me.  But the thing about the sequels is that for all their flaws, I can watch them anytime and never be bored.  And that's because I was much more invested in the characters.  With the Hobbit, I feel nothing towards the dwarves.  Nothing.  And both films have really bored me to the point where I fell asleep in the first one and wanted to walk out of the second.

 

TDOS is way more action-packed and exciting. Anyway, every ticket counts. lol

 

So you'll see the finale?

[Dementeleus]

Sorry pal, but I disagree.  I don't say this based on my love or hate for it.  I just see no reason for the multiplier to be better this time around.

 

There's a lot more action. And there's a big-ass dragon at the end. And Legolas. That sounds silly, I know, and I don't necessarily agree with them, but there's a whole lot of people who're eminently satisfied (even happy) with any or all of those things, none of which AUJ had. And even though the plot spins (and occasionally stalls) all over the place, it still doesn't take 45 minutes to get the adventure started. Much as my inner Tolkien purist loved the dinner scene, that was deadly for a lot of people.

[The Stingray]

The sequel, if the first is now overly well received,drops.  In this case, I don't think it will drop that much (I predicted 275) because the LOTR loonies are sizable.  But the opening is also where I predicted as well.

I get that the final total drops, but the OW should be more frontloaded, no?

[baumer]

There's a lot more action. And there's a big-ass dragon at the end. And Legolas. That sounds silly, I know, and I don't necessarily agree with them, but there's a whole lot of people who're eminently satisfied (even happy) with any or all of those things, none of which AUJ had. And even though the plot spins (and occasionally stalls) all over the place, it still doesn't take 45 minutes to get the adventure started. Much as my inner Tolkien purist loved the dinner scene, that was deadly for a lot of people.

 

Well, I'll just say that I predicted it to open to 75 (should be close) and finish with 270.  I'll stand by that prediction.

 

The problem with the big ass dragon is that part is so ludicrous that any awe it might bestow upon you at first (it did me) is quickly extinguished once the rest of Dopey and Sneezy and his crew arrive.

[baumer]

I get that the final total drops, but the OW should be more frontloaded, no?

 

No.