Weekend Estimates: The Hobbit - 73.6M | Frozen - 22.2M | Madea - 16M

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Why not?  And why won't Avengers 2 drop by at least 10%? 

 

 

I'd be shocked if it didn't drop more. 500-550 sounds damn good for a sequel to a movie that hit the zeitgeist the way TA did.

[Kalel009Shel]

Good luck with that logic. Avatar 2 will perform nothing like a sequel.

I dont think you want to argue with me and Baumer trying to say why a comic book film will beat James Cameron whose film is a lock for beating Titanics adjusted 2billion gross WW.. Gotham

 

Avengers isnt even a lock to do 1billion yet.

[baumer]

I agree Avatar2 will drop significantly.  The 3D craze here at least, is over.  So it could drop to about 450-500 mill.  But even a 10% drop for Avengers gives it a gross of 530-540 mill.  So there is no real way right now to determine which film is going to gross  more at this point.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Yeah, Heman could be great if done on an epic scale with good people involved.

 

[Leyla]

I'm saving all this WW stuff  for win CF passes IM3. 

 

Yes CF won a regular season game but IM3 won the fucking Superbowl!!!!

oh

excuse to spam Tony!! the world is his so the main battle is won 

 

[Emirazza]

Lets see Juggernaut 2009 is the most loved film since Titanic, it outsolde TA1 on homevideo by over 30M copies..

The  Soundtrack of the Juggernaut also was a top seller. . The first film is a 10 billion+ windfall all by itself as a moneymaker. and is posted in most peoples greatest movie experiences of all time.

 

 

Lets put it this way James Camerons name on the title with Avatar is enough to outsell Avengers 2 at this point..lol

 

Though we can expect theaters to do the unimaginable again and have an Avatar 2 Day in 300+ special theaters domestically and Worldwide just to get a glipse of the sequel and the world will come running.

 

Did I mention in a far bigger OS market  Avengers was only able to make 800+mil lol and 600+M(Which could be its max)

 

Lets see Juggernaut 1 760+mil and 2B+ OS.. I believe Avengers 2 is not even in the same playing film as Juggernaut 2 my friend.

 

Logic over Disney Avengers fanboys everytime(though I too am a fanboy, Im not out of my mind to think disney has anything that competes with the name James Cameron) lol

 Most loved film?

[baumer]

Lol very simply put and completely rates a big amen.. We dont need to mention again how bad the ass whopping was in a smaller TC market domestically and OS..Or how much bigger merchandise and HV was for Avatar over anything the mouse has..lol

 

I'm sure Avatar2 will kick serious butt internationally but domestically imo, it might drop by 35%.

[Kalel009Shel]

Stop encouraging him. 

Hah hah Artichitect buddy.. You know and I know our SM may get an ass stomping from the world's true king of monsters this time. The trailer of Godzilla blows away the Spiders return trailer so far...

 

Im hearng everyone is talking about it... And just wow if they are using James Cameron cameras and can come up  with new ways to get us involved...Epic!

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I'm so happy that at least the old schoolers on here have embraced the theory of every franchise has one movie that reaches the saturation point.

[Mango]

This is a great post.  And it puts into perspective for me quite a bit.  There were films I saw when I was younger that have lived on in my subconscious.  I remember seeing Return of the Jedi in theaters when I was 11 and I sat there in complete awe of it.  And then another film that left me with my jaw agape(literally) was JFK.  I'd give anything to experience those kinds of emotions again at the movies.  Everything and anything that can be imagined now can be done on screen.  It wasn't like that 30 years ago, there were limitations.  So thank you for writing a terrific post that puts the love of this series into perspective.

 

Glad I could help.

I'd be shocked if it didn't drop more. 500-550 sounds damn good for a sequel to a movie that hit the zeitgeist the way TA did.

 

I think a SM1 to SM2 effect for AoU is likely assuming the film lives up to the original. That would put it at $500-550 million.

[baumer]

 Most loved film?

 

But how do you determine it's not?  Kal's right.  It destroyed box office records and sold a massive amount on HV.  Avatar is not my favourite film, but to say it is not loved is kind of silly.

[peludo]

I dont think you want to argue with me and Baumer trying to say why a comic book film will beat James Cameron whose film is a lock for beating Titanics adjusted 2billion gross WW.. Gotham

 

Avengers isnt even a lock to do 1billion yet.

Avengers 2 is locked to make 1 billion WW, for sure. Or are you talking about 1 billion OS?

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Avengers isnt even a lock to do 1billion yet.

 

Yes it is. It could drop 50% domestically and still make 1B.

[Mango]

It is very early to be talking about Avatar 2's prospects (it doesn't even have an official release date yet) but I'll just say I bet they thought The Lost World was a surefire increase over JP.

[RthDeadWov]

How would FOTR be bigger in attendance than ROTK? You're talking two years. According to Mojo, ROTK sold 6 million more tickets.

You know BOM admits are all est based on yrly avg as opposed to individual film which a number of factors can influence

[lilmac]

I'm so happy that at least the old schoolers on here have embraced the theory of every franchise has one movie that reaches the saturation point.

 

 

People might have said the same thing for Fast n Furious after Tokyo Drift.  Studios just need to make good movies.  I liked Hobbit 2 so I'm rooting for it but $270-$280 is more likely than $300+

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Avengers 2 is locked to make 1 billion WW, for sure. Or are you talking about 1 billion OS?

 

 

He means overall. Kal is prone to hyperbole, if you didn't know that already.

[Kalel009Shel]

I agree Avatar2 will drop significantly.  The 3D craze here at least, is over.  So it could drop to about 450-500 mill.  But even a 10% drop for Avengers gives it a gross of 530-540 mill.  So there is no real way right now to determine which film is going to gross  more at this point.

It could drop, but lets not forget this is James Cameron..The yoda(As the director of the mighty avengers always state)

 

If he blows everyone away using 3D and other technology to push the experience further...Baumer its very possible to increase.

 

Rem its posed to be the first Dec film with a 140-200+M OW and the multiplier of a james cameron film on this scale will certainly go beyond a 5.!! I think this film could reach my  850M domestic prediction and has the potential to beat it..

 

With the amount of people talking about JC and Juggernaut 2 and the increased theaters that can show it the way james wants it to be experienced...  I dont see a decrease domestically.

 

OS Avatar 2 should beat the entire WW BO of Avatar I... Going to an incredible milestone..... I feel it in my bones Baum.

 

NEver think Cameron is going to give us a film that performs like the norm Domestically or OS.

 

Oh did I mention the drop off of Avatar 2 2nd weekend even though its mega blockbuster was like 8%.. First weekend 80+

2nd weekend 75Mil lol. Cameron defies logic

[LexJoker]

You know BOM admits are all est based on yrly avg as opposed to individual film which a number of factors can influence

would like an explanation specifically in this case.....intriguing that RotK sold less tickets than FotR.

[baumer]

You know BOM admits are all est based on yrly avg as opposed to individual film which a number of factors can influence

 

That's fine but that's all we have to go on.  We don't have inside numbers like you do.  So at this point, if there are sources like Mojo and Guru and Numbers.com that all have the same gross for each film, that's what we have to go with.