How to Train Your Dragon 2 OS (418 mil OS!!!)

[Heretic]

Because the World cup is watched by hundreds of millions of people worldwide, and is amazing. In Latin America, and Europe, where the world cup is literally worshiped, the BO will be quieter than usual.

Edited March 30, 2014 by Heretic

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

I expect at least: 

 

$60m in China

$60m in South Korea

$25m in Japan

$25m in Mexico

$10m in Argentina

$25m in Australia

$50m in UK

$40m in France

$30m in Germany

$35m in Russia

 

Why only $25m in Japan?

And because 2014 is so far a huge year for animated films in China it may earn more becuase it also has Dragons.

I also hope to gross $44m in France or 5m admissions!

[tupek]

Because the World cup is watched by hundreds of millions of people worldwide, and is amazing. In Latin America, and Europe, where the world cup is literally worshiped, the BO will be quieter than usual.

Sure, but the only case where I can see seriously affecting the box office is if every World Cup fan watches all of the matches, but I suppose most of them will only watch the ones of their countries, some of the most powerful countries' matches and the Final Match.

 

And time to go at least a few times to the movies in that month, enough they will have, I guess.

[tupek]

Why only $25m in Japan?

 

Because the first one only made like $7-8m there, and DWA movies usually flop.

 

Based on that, $25m is a lot. But.... who knows, maybe this could be the first DWA movie to "breakout" decently.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Sure, but the only case where I can see seriously affecting the box office is if every World Cup fan watches all of the matches, but I suppose most of them will only watch the ones of their countries, some of the most powerful countries' matches and the Final Match.

 

And time to go at least a few times to the movies in that month, enough they will have, I guess.

In 2010, the last World Cup, the box office was down 35% globally during the first two weeks of the tournament. Even with Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3 on the theaters everywhere. 

[tupek]

In 2010, the last World Cup, the box office was down 35% globally during the first two weeks of the tournament. Even with Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3 on the theaters everywhere. 

Well, I see. I wonder now how it will affect given that the World Cup is in Brazil. I suppose that will hurt European markets more than the Latin American.

[FrozenFan626]

my guess at this point would be $290m dom + $485m int. = $775m WW

[Ash Skywalker]

my guess at this point would be $290m dom + $485m int. = $775m WW

increase it by $10m in dom and $15m in int. that will be good

[zackzack]

DRAGON 2 can earn between $700MM WW to $800M. No doubt.

But I think fans of this movie wants it to do $1B WW. The original is really, uhhh, original. Very fresh, exciting kind of animation that H'wood should invest in more. Fox, with APES sequel, XMEN & MUSEUM plus EXODUS, and MAZE RUNNER & SECRET SERVICE could score good mid-range numbers, should do quite well this year.

[Quigley]

Predicting $700M to $800M for HTTYD 2 would be a very realistic expectation last summer. In light of recent animated moster hits, Frozen and Despicable Me 2, though, such a worlwide total looks like a foregone conclusion.

 

Frozen did benefit greatly from lack of competition. It's astronomical performance was of course due to the US, South Korea and Japan. However, it could have earned $80M less in the US, $70M less in Japan and $40M less in South Korea and it would still have earned $1billion worldwide - not a record-breaking total but a respectable total nonetheless.

 

Asia

How to Train Your Dragon 2 will have virtually no competition (Planes 2 is like a drop in the ocean, similarly to Walking with Dinosaurs). And although it may not be as popular in Japan as Frozen, it can definitely challenge Frozen's gross in South Korea, it will surpass Frozen by far in China and it will probably out-gross it in most other Asian markets and challenge Kung Fu Panda 2's records (dragons are arguably even more popular than pandas in Asia). Total in Asia: $220M

 

North America

Having seen Despicable Me 2's performance last summer, a total above $300M seems very likely in North America (DM2 earned $370M in North America although 6 animated films were released within 7 weeks of each other, so HtTYD2 can definitely earn more than $300M given the minimal competition around). Total in NA: $350M

 

The rest of the planet

That gives us $570M. The first film earned about $230M from the rest of the world (minus NA and Asia). To reach $1B, the second one doesn't even have to double its grosses in the rest of the countries ($430M). With the lack of competition, that is doable. The FIFA World Cup will be a problem, though. But even if it doesn't reach $1B, I believe a total above $900M is realistically possible.

[Rsyu]

HTTYD2 will not challenge frozen's gross in South Korea. It'll do well to even pass KFP2. China's performance depends on release date, how long it's going to run and the sort of competition it will face (local films in particular).  

[BadAtGender]

Also, Planes 2 could very well be competition in some markets. The first grossed nearly twice as much as HTTYD did in Japan.

 

Plus there's that world cup thing that's happening right around the same time.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

In Latin America according to BOM Planes did $29.7m and HTTYD $36.1m

[keysersoze123]

This has zero % chance of hitting 1B WW. And one can never predict a frozen kind of run. That just happens. I doubt any sequel will come close to frozen. 

[Rsyu]

This has zero % chance of hitting 1B WW. And one can never predict a frozen kind of run. That just happens. I doubt any sequel will come close to frozen.

I wouldn't say zero. As you just said yourself it could "just happen" Extremely unlikely would be right though.

[Ash Skywalker]

comparing how well Frozen did in Japan. i hope this too has a chance to breakout 

[Rsyu]

comparing how well Frozen did in Japan. i hope this too has a chance to breakout

Not likely, Dreamworks and just about any other foreign animation films outside of WDAS and PIXAR is extremely unpopular in Japan. Just observe this listHighest-Grossing Non-Disney/Pixar Imported-Animated Films (2000-)¥2.50 billion - Despicable Me 2 (2013)¥2.50 billion - Shrek 2 (2004)¥2.27 billion - Shrek (2001)¥2.05 billion - Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (2012)¥2.00 billion - Kung Fu Panda (2008)¥1.95 billion - Ice Age (2002)¥1.88 billion - Shark Tale (2005)¥1.55 billion - Shrek the Third (2007)¥1.45 billion - Happy Feet (2007)¥1.40 billion - Robots (2005)¥1.20 billion - Despicable Me (2010)¥1.17 billion - Puss in Boots (2012)¥1.10 billion - Over the Hedge (2006)¥1.08 billion - Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011)¥1.05 billion - The Polar Express (2004)¥1.02 billion - Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (2009)¥1.00 billion - Corpse Bride (2005)¥1.00 billion - Shrek Forever After (2011)Shrek 2 and Despicable Me 2 are the only two on the list to even make the Yearly Top 20 in their respective years, ranking 18th and 19th. I doubt frozen's popularity will magically transfer to HTTYD2

[Ash Skywalker]

Not likely, Dreamworks and just about any other foreign animation films outside of WDAS and PIXAR is extremely unpopular in Japan. Just observe this listHighest-Grossing Non-Disney/Pixar Imported-Animated Films (2000-)¥2.50 billion - Despicable Me 2 (2013)¥2.50 billion - Shrek 2 (2004)¥2.27 billion - Shrek (2001)¥2.05 billion - Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (2012)¥2.00 billion - Kung Fu Panda (2008)¥1.95 billion - Ice Age (2002)¥1.88 billion - Shark Tale (2005)¥1.55 billion - Shrek the Third (2007)¥1.45 billion - Happy Feet (2007)¥1.40 billion - Robots (2005)¥1.20 billion - Despicable Me (2010)¥1.17 billion - Puss in Boots (2012)¥1.10 billion - Over the Hedge (2006)¥1.08 billion - Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011)¥1.05 billion - The Polar Express (2004)¥1.02 billion - Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (2009)¥1.00 billion - Corpse Bride (2005)¥1.00 billion - Shrek Forever After (2011)Shrek 2 and Despicable Me 2 are the only two on the list to even make the Yearly Top 20 in their respective years, ranking 18th and 19th. I doubt frozen's popularity will magically transfer to HTTYD2

well nice points i'm not referring about the studios popularity or anything. look if the quality is good and marketing push is fair enough for Dragon 2 it can get good numbers for sure and by the way animated movies are doing well in japan right.. so it has a chance not as frozen but pretty good numbers i suppose

[Rsyu]

well nice points i'm not referring about the studios popularity or anything. look if the quality is good and marketing push is fair enough for Dragon 2 it can get good numbers for sure and by the way animated movies are doing well in japan right.. so it has a chance not as frozen but pretty good numbers i suppose

What conatitutes a succrss though? HTTYD only did $8m so I'm not sure how much you're expecting it to increase by. Also animated films have always done well in Japan, just not for foreign releases outside of WDAS and Pixar.

[Moviedweeb]

This has zero % chance of hitting 1B WW. And one can never predict a frozen kind of run. That just happens. I doubt any sequel will come close to frozen. 

 

I think a Frozen sequel would be a massive box office success and a gross above $900m would not be unreasonable.