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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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Interstellar is far from 1. Nobody has seen it. 

Well, it does have the fact that five consecutive years have seen an acclaimed tentpole/SFX film become a BP contender (Avatar, Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi, Gravity) 

 

Plus, Nolan has been more or less snubbed his entire career by the Academy. If Interstellar is acclaimed enough, they might cease the opportunity to award Nolan as a whole. 

 

I do agree that Interstellar isn't #1 or even a lock, but top 5 seems pretty likely 

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I guess if Interstellar is received very well it has the potential of sweeping the Oscars - 10 nominations and more (with a lot of wins especially in the technical categories).

 

However, I certainly don't know enough to place any bets... wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be (or considered to be) a disappointment with the immense anticipation some have built up.

 

So far "Boyhood" is the clear frontrunner for me (also for Director), with "Gone Girl" being a movie I could see coming close or even winning over it (again, same for director).

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If 2001 didn't win in an era when the academy was more willing to take risks with films, interstellar has zero chance of winning.

Honestly, if this was the old 5 film nomination system, I doubt that it would've even been nommes for BP.

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If 2001 didn't win in an era when the academy was more willing to take risks with films, interstellar has zero chance of winning.

Honestly, if this was the old 5 film nomination system, I doubt that it would've even been nommes for BP.

 

If the early word is true, I'd bet it would be one of the 5 nods. Avatar was a serious contender and certainly would have made the 5 nominees, and I think Interstellar would probably fill that void here as well, but I don't think it has much of a chance at winning.

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If 2001 didn't win in an era when the academy was more willing to take risks with films, interstellar has zero chance of winning.

Honestly, if this was the old 5 film nomination system, I doubt that it would've even been nommes for BP.

Umm they didn't take risks? Nothing nominated that year was outside the Academy's wheelhouse. Musicals, historical dramas, "important" movies. 

 

Oliver! winning BP is one of the least risky picks ever. Plus, Rosemary's Baby, Planet of the Apes and Once Upon a Time in the West weren't nominated either.

 

Gravity was the runnerup (more or less) last year for BP... Life of Pi was probably 2nd or 3rd in 2012. More abstract, original genre type films can do well. Eventually, a sci-fi film will win BP since the Academy voters will get younger and younger. Soon, most voters will have grown up with Spielberg, Star Wars, the Disney Renaissance, superhero films, etc... and they might be willing to give the top prize to a tentpole or an animated feature. Never assume it's impossible. 

 

Plus Nolan's been snubbed by the Academy enough where I would assume any sort of acclaim for this (85%+ on RT; more likely 90%+) would garner a BP, BD, and Screenplay nod. Maybe acting if the performances are great (not likely). Either way, I don't see Boyhood making waves at the Oscar despite its high quality, Gone Girl seems a little dark for the Academy, Birdman is a wild card but the comedic aspect might hurt it, Imitation Game and Selma look like pure Oscar bait, Unbroken might become the frontrunner but that's in December, Eastwood's iffy lately so American Sniper's meh... Inherent Vice and Foxcatcher might do ok. Same for Fury. 

 

Unlike most years, there's no real frontrunner yet. We might not even know until December/January. By October last year, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave were the two to beat. This year? - nothing's truly dominant. 

 

He's overdue for Memento and The Dark Knight (his two masterpieces). Inception was good, but Social Network and Toy Story 3 deserved BP over it. The Prestige is great and is one of 2006's best. Batman Begins is solid and probably would have gotten a nod in 2005 if BP had 10 slots like there is now. Following and TDKR are decent, but not BP-caliber. 

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Umm they didn't take risks? Nothing nominated that year was outside the Academy's wheelhouse. Musicals, historical dramas, "important" movies. 

 

Oliver! winning BP is one of the least risky picks ever. Plus, Rosemary's Baby, Planet of the Apes and Once Upon a Time in the West weren't nominated either.

 

Gravity was the runnerup (more or less) last year for BP... Life of Pi was probably 2nd or 3rd in 2012. More abstract, original genre type films can do well. Eventually, a sci-fi film will win BP since the Academy voters will get younger and younger. Soon, most voters will have grown up with Spielberg, Star Wars, the Disney Renaissance, superhero films, etc... and they might be willing to give the top prize to a tentpole or an animated feature. Never assume it's impossible. 

 

Plus Nolan's been snubbed by the Academy enough where I would assume any sort of acclaim for this (85%+ on RT; more likely 90%+) would garner a BP, BD, and Screenplay nod. Maybe acting if the performances are great (not likely). Either way, I don't see Boyhood making waves at the Oscar despite its high quality, Gone Girl seems a little dark for the Academy, Birdman is a wild card but the comedic aspect might hurt it, Imitation Game and Selma look like pure Oscar bait, Unbroken might become the frontrunner but that's in December, Eastwood's iffy lately so American Sniper's meh... Inherent Vice and Foxcatcher might do ok. Same for Fury. 

 

Unlike most years, there's no real frontrunner yet. We might not even know until December/January. By October last year, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave were the two to beat. This year? - nothing's truly dominant. 

 

He's overdue for Memento and The Dark Knight (his two masterpieces). Inception was good, but Social Network and Toy Story 3 deserved BP over it. The Prestige is great and is one of 2006's best. Batman Begins is solid and probably would have gotten a nod in 2005 if BP had 10 slots like there is now. Following and TDKR are decent, but not BP-caliber. 

 

 

Let's be honest here. Academy doesn't give two shits about Nolan (or your reasoning about him.) The point still remains that they don't particularly care for him and that he isn't overdue in their eyes. 

 

And my point is that there was an era during which the Academy awarded edgy movies. You forgot (obviously) to mention that the academy awarded midnight cowboy the year after. That was also the year that Butch Cassidy almost won BP. That is not the present academy by a long mile. Even if the critics make Interstellar undeniable, the Academy will find another movie to award it over. If you think about it, it isn't like 2007 when there wasn't a lot of Academy friendly fare so TWBB and NCFOM became the big hitters. This year there's Unbroken, Imitation Game and etc. all films that are completely awards friendly and of high quality. Interstellar doesn't really stand a chance. 

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Let's wait until interstellar is out before even thinking it will be nominated. Sci-fi blockbusters are rare nomination. They need to be very well received.

Or be directed by James Cameron  ;) Avatar has a terrible story and acting... plenty of sci-fi films are more BP-worthy than it. But I do agree that sci-fi has it rough at the Oscars. 

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You have to consider the competition, though. This year already has one of the most critically acclaimed films of the past 20 years.

As much as id love to see Boyhood win, it'll be lucky enough to get a nomination by the way the academy snubs Linklater.

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