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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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Currently my nom count is

Birdman - 10 (BP, Director, Actor, Sup Actor, Sup Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, and Score)

Interstellar - 9 (BP, Actor, Sup Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects)

Unbroken - 9 (BP, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Song, and Sound Mixing)

Gone Girl - 6 (BP, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing)

Boyhood - 6 (BP, Director, Sup Actor, Sup Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing)

Whiplash 6 - (BP, Sup Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing)

Into the Woods - 6 (BP, Sup Actress, Costume Design, Makeup, Production Design, and Sound Mixing)

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 6 (BP, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Score)

Selma - 5 (BP, Director, Actor, Sup Actor, and Original Screenplay)

The Imitation Game - 5 (BP, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume, and Score)

Guardians of the Galaxy - 4 (Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects)

Wild - 3 (Actress, Sup Actress, and Adapted Screenplay)

Foxcatcher - 3 (Actor, Sup Actor, and Makeup)

Big Eyes - 2 (Actress and Costume Design)

The LEGO Movie - 2 (Animated and Song)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 2 (Animated and Song)

The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies - 2 (Visual Effects and Song)

Fury - 2 (Sound Editing and Mixing)

Still Alice - 1 (Actress)

The Fault in Our Stars - 1 (Actress)

Inherent Vice - 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

Begin Again - 1 (Song)

Big Hero 6 - 1 (Animated)

The Tale of Princess Kaguya - 1 (Animated)

Song of the Sea - 1 (Animated)

Godzilla - 1 (Visual Effects)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 1 (Visual Effects)

Maleficent - 1 (Costume Design)

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interstellar wont get 9 nominations. its only 7.1 ave rating on RT. gravity was 9/10. academy wont give 9 nominations to a mixed reception movie critically, which isnt oscar friendly(sci blockbuster)

 

gravity got 10 noms, but was highly praised critically. interstellar isnt.

 

selma , unbroken and birdman will get around the 9 nominations mark.

Edited by Halba
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Currently my nom count is

Birdman - 10 (BP, Director, Actor, Sup Actor, Sup Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, and Score)

Interstellar - 9 (BP, Actor, Sup Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects)

Unbroken - 9 (BP, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Song, and Sound Mixing)

Gone Girl - 6 (BP, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing)

Boyhood - 6 (BP, Director, Sup Actor, Sup Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing)

Whiplash 6 - (BP, Sup Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing)

Into the Woods - 6 (BP, Sup Actress, Costume Design, Makeup, Production Design, and Sound Mixing)

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 6 (BP, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Score)

Selma - 5 (BP, Director, Actor, Sup Actor, and Original Screenplay)

The Imitation Game - 5 (BP, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume, and Score)

Guardians of the Galaxy - 4 (Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects)

Wild - 3 (Actress, Sup Actress, and Adapted Screenplay)

Foxcatcher - 3 (Actor, Sup Actor, and Makeup)

Big Eyes - 2 (Actress and Costume Design)

The LEGO Movie - 2 (Animated and Song)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 2 (Animated and Song)

The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies - 2 (Visual Effects and Song)

Fury - 2 (Sound Editing and Mixing)

Still Alice - 1 (Actress)

The Fault in Our Stars - 1 (Actress)

Inherent Vice - 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

Begin Again - 1 (Song)

Big Hero 6 - 1 (Animated)

The Tale of Princess Kaguya - 1 (Animated)

Song of the Sea - 1 (Animated)

Godzilla - 1 (Visual Effects)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 1 (Visual Effects)

Maleficent - 1 (Costume Design)

Replace IS and Into the Woods BP noms with Foxcatcher and Theory of Everything. No way Theory of Everything would be completely snubbed. BP, Actor, Actress, and A. Screenplay are pretty sure bets for it (hell, Redmayne is probably the only one who can upset Keaton). Score is a maybe. And IS has about 15% chance at a BP nom, no chance at McConaughey, and a very slim chance at Chastain. But no chance for her either really since they'll pick Meryl any day over her, and the other 4 seem pretty locked in (Arquette, Stone, Dern, Knightley). 

Edited by MovieMan89
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Currently my nom count is

Birdman - 10 (BP, Director, Actor, Sup Actor, Sup Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, and Score)

Interstellar - 9 (BP, Actor, Sup Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects)

Unbroken - 9 (BP, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Song, and Sound Mixing)

Gone Girl - 6 (BP, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing)

Boyhood - 6 (BP, Director, Sup Actor, Sup Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing)

Whiplash 6 - (BP, Sup Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing)

Into the Woods - 6 (BP, Sup Actress, Costume Design, Makeup, Production Design, and Sound Mixing)

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 6 (BP, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Score)

Selma - 5 (BP, Director, Actor, Sup Actor, and Original Screenplay)

The Imitation Game - 5 (BP, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume, and Score)

Guardians of the Galaxy - 4 (Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects)

Wild - 3 (Actress, Sup Actress, and Adapted Screenplay)

Foxcatcher - 3 (Actor, Sup Actor, and Makeup)

Big Eyes - 2 (Actress and Costume Design)

The LEGO Movie - 2 (Animated and Song)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 2 (Animated and Song)

The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies - 2 (Visual Effects and Song)

Fury - 2 (Sound Editing and Mixing)

Still Alice - 1 (Actress)

The Fault in Our Stars - 1 (Actress)

Inherent Vice - 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

Begin Again - 1 (Song)

Big Hero 6 - 1 (Animated)

The Tale of Princess Kaguya - 1 (Animated)

Song of the Sea - 1 (Animated)

Godzilla - 1 (Visual Effects)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 1 (Visual Effects)

Maleficent - 1 (Costume Design)

Dude, you are really overpredicting Interstellar lol. It's not getting any acting nods, period, end of story (or any above-the-technical-line nominations at all at this point, most likely).

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Dude, you are really overpredicting Interstellar lol. It's not getting any acting nods, period, end of story (or any above-the-technical-line nominations at all at this point, most likely).

Wouldn't discount Interstellar at Best Director or Screenplay, but I agree that BP and Actor and Supporting Actress seem like long shots now. 

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I would very quickly discount a screenplay nomination.

Well there's 10 nominations across Adapted and Original, while BP has 8-9. Interstellar has a 5%... not likely, but until mid to late December, I wouldn't quickly discount it. 

 

Plenty of horrible films have gotten Oscar nods galore (August: Osage County, The Reader, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Nine, etc) 

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Well there's 10 nominations across Adapted and Original, while BP has 8-9. Interstellar has a 5%... not likely, but until mid to late December, I wouldn't quickly discount it. 

 

Plenty of horrible films have gotten Oscar nods galore (August: Osage County, The Reader, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Nine, etc) 

That's Meryl/Weinsteins, holocaust/weinsteins, 911/Daldry, musical/weinsteins.

 

All things they clearly love more than science fiction. For sci-fi to get in it either needs absolutely amazing reviews OR to absolutely smash it at the box office.

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Wouldn't discount Interstellar at Best Director or Screenplay, but I agree that BP and Actor and Supporting Actress seem like long shots now.

If it gets a BD nod it's locked for a BP nod.

Honestly, I'm not to positive on anything just yet. For example, the Butler was completely shut out last year after a lot of predicted noms, and even Inside Llewyn Davis managed to miss heavily.

We have an academy that is starting to be more accepting toward artistic blockbusters. We won't see a franchise nominated anytime soon but don't discount Interstellar.

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I think reviews would've needed to be unanimously positive for Interstellar to have any kind of prayer. It was a long shot as it was, and now with the polarizing reception it's pretty much done. There's too many more agreeable, academy-friendly films ahead of it.

 

There'd be a lot of people ticked off here if a stuffy biopic with a similar reception got in.

Edited by tribefan695
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Personally, I think Interstellar will be nominated here; response from the industry seems much more positive than critics.

 

That said, right now I see Boyhood winning, why? Birdman is too weird for the Academy to give the top prize and Interstellar is too divisive. Every other movie besides that looks very same-old, same-old. Certainly they could give it to Unbroken if it ends up being good, but I'm incredibly suspicious of it being a miss because it looks very eh. Imitation Game is much too similar to King's Speech to win. Boyhood is the only movie that's unique, has a relatable hook, and is good enough to win IMO

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Yah, at this point, I am also getting the vibe Boyhood is going to win. It's November and nothing has earned groundbreaking Academy voter WOM yet. But, we shall see.

there are still 3-4 contender films not released. selma, unbroken, american sniper, and into the woods. it would be prudent to wait for the full reviews.

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