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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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There'd be a lot of people ticked off here if a stuffy biopic with a similar reception got in.

 

And rightfully so. Those stuffy biopics are safe and very conventional. Interstellar is not, which is at least partially the reason for its mixed reception. That being said, the movie is sci-fi and has pretty much zero chance at major nominations.

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And rightfully so. Those stuffy biopics are safe and very conventional. Interstellar is not, which is at least partially the reason for its mixed reception. That being said, the movie is sci-fi and has pretty much zero chance at major nominations.

 

I'm sure a lot of people who hated the film would take exception to that assumption. I loved it too, but I also recognize that there are legitimate reasons it may not work for everyone.

Edited by tribefan695
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there are still 3-4 contender films not released. selma, unbroken, american sniper, and into the woods. it would be prudent to wait for the full reviews.

None of those movies look as ambitious as Boyhood, Birdman, or Interstellar. That was my point

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I'm sure a lot of people who hated the film would take exception to that assumption. I loved it too, but I also recognize that there are legitimate reasons it may not work for everyone.

 

What assumption? I said it was partially the reason for its mixed reception, not entirely the reason. There are plenty of other examples in history that received a polarized reaction and later had a different reputation. We'll see what happens with Interstellar over time. I could see it going either way (forgettable or classic).

 

One thing is certain: it is not some fun popcorn movie that is easily digestible and that is precisely why I expected it to flop after seeing it on opening night. I'm surprised at how well it's doing at the box office. At nearly 3 hours, the convoluted plot seems like a recipe for box office disaster. People prefer linear storytelling, especially in really long movies.

 

 

All Interstellar really needs is a vocal 5% that will put it at number 1.

 

I strongly doubt this will happen. If anything, I would think Selma is going to steal a lot of Interstellar's thunder. Both are from Paramount and I would expect Paramount will put all their resources behind Selma since it has a much, much better chance during awards season.

Edited by redfirebird2008
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It really isn't; There's at least 2 locks already, Birdman and TIG. Possibly Boyhood as well. 

 

That's not exactly true. Birdman is a strong candidate but now is benefiting from the lack of strong heavy contenders. It will have to fight for awareness for three months. There are a lot of great Autumn films that finally get lost in the time despite early strong contenders (i.e. Gone Baby Gone, Changeling, The Town, The ides of march, American Gangster, Flight, The Master, Into the Wild...).

 

It's less common in recent years with the 10 nominees list, but it could happen. Anyways, I would be shocked if Birdman, TIG or Boyhood aren't nominated.

 

If any of the October/November films miss the cut, it will be Gone girl, Interstellar, Foxcatcher or Whiplash.

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Nom count:

 

Birdman - 10 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design)

Unbroken - 9 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Interstellar - 8 (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)

Boyhood - 7 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song)

The Imitation Game - 7 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Original Score, Production Design)

Selma - 6 (Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score)

Foxcatcher - 5 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling)

Into the Woods - 5 (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

The Theory of Everything - 5 (Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score)

Gone Girl - 4 (Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay)

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 4 (Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design)

Wild - 3 (Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

Whiplash - 3 (Supporting Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Fury - 2 (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Guardians of the Galaxy - 2 (Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 2 (Animated Feature, Original Song)

The LEGO Movie - 2 (Animated Feature, Original Song)

Mr. Turner - 2 (Cinematography, Costume Design)

Still Alice - 2 (Actress, Supporting Actress)

Begin Again - 1 (Original Song)

Big Eyes - 1 (Actress)

Big Hero 6 - 1 (Animated Feature)

The Book of Life - 1 (Animated Feature)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 1 (Visual Effects)

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 1 (Visual Effects)

Maleficent - 1 (Costume Design)

The Tale of Princess Kayuga - 1 (Animated Feature)

 

Win count:

Boyhood - 5 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing)

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 2 (Costume Design, Production Design)

Interstellar - 2 (Original Score, Visual Effects)

Unbroken - 2 (Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography)

Whiplash - 2 (Supporting Actor, Sound Editing)

Begin Again - 1 (Original Song)

Birdman - 1 (Actor)

Foxcatcher - 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)

Into the Woods - 1 (Sound Mixing)

The LEGO Movie - 1 (Animated Feature)

Still Alice - 1 (Actress)

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Each studios FYC

Disney

Into the Woods

Big Hero 6

Sony Classics

Foxcatcher

Jodorowsky's Dune

Leviathan

Love is Strange

Magic in the Moonlight

Merchants of Doubt

Mr. Turner

Saint Laurent

The Salt of the Earth

Still Alice

Whiplash

Wild Tales

Warner Bros

The LEGO Movie

The Judge

Inherent Vice

The Hobbit: Battle of Five Armies

American Sniper

Weinstein

Begin Again

Big Eyes

CitizenFour

The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

The Imitation Game

St Vincent

Dreamworks Animation

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Fox Searchlight

Belle

Birdman

Calvary

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wild

20th Century Fox

The Fault in Our Stars

Rio 2

Gone Girl

The Book of Life

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Exodus: Gods and Kings

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Focus Features

The Theory of Everything

Paramount

Noah

Transformers: Age of Extinction

Men Women and Children

Interstellar

Top Five

The Gambler

Selma

Sony Pictures

Fury

Universal

A Million Ways to Die in the West

Get on Up

Unbroken

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Each studios FYC

Weinstein

Begin Again

Big Eyes

CitizenFour

The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

The Imitation Game

St Vincent

 

 

He must really hate James Gray for refusing to tinker with The Immigrant. That film was praised all around, much more so than Begin Again, St. Vincent and Eleanor Rigby, and it's not even up for consideration?

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He must really hate James Gray for refusing to tinker with The Immigrant. That film was praised all around, much more so than Begin Again, St. Vincent and Eleanor Rigby, and it's not even up for consideration?

 

That's why he dumped it and why it showed up on Netflix about a month or two later.   He did the same with Snowpiercer, and for the same spiteful reasons,  Harvey is nothing if not consistent in his grudges even if it means burying his most critically acclaimed movies.  Snowpiercer at least gets promoted, if nominally by the underfunded TWC-Radius.

 

Also looks like Ike Perlmutter at Marvel turned down Disney's offer again to promote (and pay for it) the Marvel movies. :wacko:

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