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No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | Delayed again | RIP Sean Connery

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Should be interesting to see what Cineworld/Regal do now considering they were apparently holding out for Bond before reopening.

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1983 - 1962 = 21 years for Connery as Bond (including the unsanctioned Never Say Never Again)

2021 - 2006 = 15 years for Craig as Bond

1973 - 1985 = 12 years for Moore as Bond

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Cineworld now waiting on AQP/BW.     
 

This is one of the better fall dates, should prove final.  
 

Curious whether MI7 moves or stays.

Edited by WandaLegion
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Early Last year, there was a strong possibility that after the box office is "on hold", they could return to normal BO takings. But It's become clear that box office gross is going to be less than pre-covid, even once this is all over. It will take several years for the box office to fully recover. If it ever does. 

 

No point delaying it forever.

 

E.g. in 2019 this would have grossed 1 billion.

 

In 2020 it would have grossed 400 million.

In 2021 it would gross 500 million.

In 2022 it would gross 600 million.

 

In 2026 the box office is finally back to it's 2019 position and this will gross 1 billion.

 

Wouldn't be worth the wait. The difference between this year and next year won't be great enough to justify a years delay. Just take the hit, accept that it can't be worse than 2020, and get to work.

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Same date as Morbius so wonder where that's moving to now. That and Venom 2 are the only movies that weren't pushed back in the Sony delay onslaught just now I think.

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31 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Early Last year, there was a strong possibility that after the box office is "on hold", they could return to normal BO takings. But It's become clear that box office gross is going to be less than pre-covid, even once this is all over. It will take several years for the box office to fully recover. If it ever does. 

 

No point delaying it forever.

 

E.g. in 2019 this would have grossed 1 billion.

 

In 2020 it would have grossed 400 million.

In 2021 it would gross 500 million.

In 2022 it would gross 600 million.

 

In 2026 the box office is finally back to it's 2019 position and this will gross 1 billion.

 

Wouldn't be worth the wait. The difference between this year and next year won't be great enough to justify a years delay. Just take the hit, accept that it can't be worse than 2020, and get to work.

How in the world has this “become clear?” 
 

If anything, the opposite has become clear — business will bounce back very fast once the pandemic has calmed down.

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Unless it pivots to a simultaneous home release, Top Gun 2 will likely end up moving to Mission: Impossible's November 19 date (while that heads off 2022) so there likely won't be any spy franchise overlap.

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8 hours ago, Avatree said:

Early Last year, there was a strong possibility that after the box office is "on hold", they could return to normal BO takings. But It's become clear that box office gross is going to be less than pre-covid, even once this is all over. It will take several years for the box office to fully recover. If it ever does. 

 

No point delaying it forever.

 

E.g. in 2019 this would have grossed 1 billion.

 

In 2020 it would have grossed 400 million.

In 2021 it would gross 500 million.

In 2022 it would gross 600 million.

 

In 2026 the box office is finally back to it's 2019 position and this will gross 1 billion.

 

Wouldn't be worth the wait. The difference between this year and next year won't be great enough to justify a years delay. Just take the hit, accept that it can't be worse than 2020, and get to work.

A billion pre Covid? Doubtful after the poor WOM from Spectre. The only Billion dollar bond film happened because of a 50 year anniversary and the Olympics marketing. This doesn't have the same hype

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41 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why not just move this to June lol? MGM literally doesn't know what it's doing.

At this point everyone is taking the "better safe than sorry" approach and hoping that things will have greatly improved by the fall (and can move up if it happens sooner). After this and the Sony delays yesterday Universal will likely announce new dates for Fast 9 and Minions today. Expect Paramount to announce a new date for A Quiet Place as well.

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On 1/21/2021 at 5:52 PM, filmlover said:

Same date as Morbius so wonder where that's moving to now. That and Venom 2 are the only movies that weren't pushed back in the Sony delay onslaught just now I think.

If SOny had a streaming service it would be headed there....

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On 1/22/2021 at 6:52 AM, Eric Gardner said:

 

And he did die of Covid.

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On 1/21/2021 at 8:46 PM, Avatree said:

Early Last year, there was a strong possibility that after the box office is "on hold", they could return to normal BO takings. But It's become clear that box office gross is going to be less than pre-covid, even once this is all over. It will take several years for the box office to fully recover. If it ever does. 

 

No point delaying it forever.

 

E.g. in 2019 this would have grossed 1 billion.

 

In 2020 it would have grossed 400 million.

In 2021 it would gross 500 million.

In 2022 it would gross 600 million.

 

In 2026 the box office is finally back to it's 2019 position and this will gross 1 billion.

 

Wouldn't be worth the wait. The difference between this year and next year won't be great enough to justify a years delay. Just take the hit, accept that it can't be worse than 2020, and get to work.

 

They made a mistake moving it from the Fall 2020 date.  Sure they did not have the upside but it would have provided downside protection.  If TENET made 363 then Bond would have a floor of an absolute floor of 400 with 450-500 more likely the bottom end.  It would have kept Regal's open and they would have got the NY theaters while they where open.   This while they started the marketing push by releasing the Bond Song before moving the date the next day.  They could also be enjoying the post theatrical dollars right now.

 

Now this Nov there is probably more upside but also the same or more downside risk.  You are probably looking at 100-200 more in upside this year from a Fall 2020 release but you are also looking at a market that might very well shrink dramatically and you are holding out hope to match TENET numbers and it could end up at WW84 levels where only the hardest core fans of the IP show up and everyone else waits or people see this as past its sell by date or CA, NY and Chicago theaters are still closed.

 

If the numbers given about Apple and then the second round of streamer talks are true you have the streaming services already seeing the movie as a depreciating assist (600 to under 300).  MGM is less valuable to any buyer because they have this hanging around their neck not making money. 

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On 1/22/2021 at 2:19 AM, WandaLegion said:

How in the world has this “become clear?” 
 

If anything, the opposite has become clear — business will bounce back very fast once the pandemic has calmed down.

I don't see any evidence whatsoever that box office will be same as pre-covid. Why do you think this ?

 

Look at how few people cared about cinemas when they were open. Every streaming service has boomed. Studios are expecting business to go down, which is why many of them are continuing to put movies on streaming services instead.

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8 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I don't see any evidence whatsoever that box office will be same as pre-covid. Why do you think this ?

Because of the box office quickly returning to pre-covid levels in areas where the virus gets beaten.   
 

Admittedly that’s not a huge sample size, and it’s geographically/culturally skewed. But it’s more evidence than I see for the opposite proposition. 

10 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Look at how few people cared about cinemas when they were open.

Not a huge % of the population, sure, but enough to make theaters pretty lucrative for studios (on blockbusters with good reception). 

 

11 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Every streaming service has boomed. Studios are expecting business to go down, which is why many of them are continuing to put movies on streaming services instead.

Well, sure, per capita attendance has been trending down for over two decades at this point and I think that would continue and perhaps accelerate even without covid. I’m not at all convinced that theatrical attendance in, say, 2030 will be even close to 2019 — maybe things will have shifted to a primarily DTC model where movies release day and date in premium screens in a greatly contracted physical market+for a fee on the associated studio’s streaming service.  
 

But in 2021/2022 I think we’ll still be closer to a 2019 model of theatergoing. 

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I hope studios are using this time to fortify scripts and story arcs. I'm hoping the next crop of Bond movies have strong scripts ready to go and we get post-Craig films every 2 years like the old days. 

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3 hours ago, lilmac said:

I hope studios are using this time to fortify scripts and story arcs. 

You're overestimating the studios, I think.

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