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No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | Delayed again | RIP Sean Connery

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34 minutes ago, Burgess said:

But the loss in gross wasn’t just from China. If it had, I’d think they would be releasing in April. But most, if not all, of South East Asia is shuttered. Also parts of Europe and the Middle East. They were looking at a $300m loss, at least.

No it's not about China alone. The market disturbed so far are basically Italy and SK for now. Rest are doing what is expected from holdovers. Anyways, leaving out China, the film will be losing $50-70mn, with delay, which will be recovered by an additional gross of $125-175mn internationally. Further the revenue from home video will be delayed by an year as well from now, which also bear a present value cost.

 

So I would have pick recent date, as picked by Disney for Mulan and Widow.

Edited by charlie Jatinder

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No it's not about China alone. The market disturbed so far are basically Italy and SK for now. Rest are doing what is expected from holdovers. Anyways, leaving out China, the film will be losing $50-70mn, with delay, which will be recovered by an additional gross of $125-175mn internationally. Further the revenue from home video will be delayed by an year as well from now, which also bear a present value cost.

 

So I would have pick recent date, as picked by Disney for Mulan and Widow.

 

That’s assuming exhibitors (theater chains) have the capacity to take on another Blockbuster in the the middle of the Spring/Summer schedule. Also, if the consensus is that things will get worse before they get better then MGM was smart to push NTTD out as far into 2020 as is financially viable. Disney may not be able to move Mulan due to theater contracts and BW could still be moved.

 

 

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Posted this on Twitter, some speculation to throw out there - could we see an autumn festival run happen? First off, the film - for once, for a major blockbuster - should actually be fully done to make that happen. Unlike previous Bonds with very very tight post production schedules. Secondly, the success of A Star is Born & Joker on the circuit - particularly the latter - surely has opened doors to other studio blockbusters to use that as a launchpad. While those were admittedly more awards-positioned in a way Bond may not be, we did have Knives Out... And with Bond being a more 'prestige' blockbuster franchise, festival ambitions - doesn't have to be competition - would fit right in. Can also take place of a more conventional press/premiere tour partly, is doing festivals more or less expensive than bespoke premieres? From a fan POV, of course the possibility of seeing the film as early as late August/early September is exciting after the gut punch of a delay. Bond isn't nearly on the Marvel/Star Wars level of spoiler paranoia and bad actor leak risks, not nearly as much a concern. Like, no one leaked out whodunnit in Knives Out after TIFF, right? Or at least hasn't spammed the film's hashtags with it. In any case such a move, while unprecedented (as this whole situation is) could be a smart way to build *fresh* word of mouth back up, I would argue. After months upon months of delays, word of mouth from people actually seeing the film leading into it finally coming out, would be quite a thing. But, will these autumn festivals even go ahead with the virus situation? And more importantly, this would require a ton of confidence in the film being positively received. Months of mixed or negative reviews leading to release would be hard to overcome image wise, though Joker has showed to a certain extent that it doesn't matter as much?

Possible timeline:

- Venice world premiere: Sept 2-12

- TIFF North America/IMAX premiere: Sept 10-20

- LFF - Surprise Film slot as to not cannibalise Royal Albert Hall premiere? Oct 7-18

And close off with the usual RAH premiere in early November.

Edited by antovolk
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Posted this on Twitter, some speculation to throw out there - could we see an autumn festival run happen? First off, the film - for once, for a major blockbuster - should actually be fully done to make that happen. Unlike previous Bonds with very very tight post production schedules. Secondly, the success of A Star is Born & Joker on the circuit - particularly the latter - surely has opened doors to other studio blockbusters to use that as a launchpad. While those were admittedly more awards-positioned in a way Bond may not be, we did have Knives Out... And with Bond being a more 'prestige' blockbuster franchise, festival ambitions - doesn't have to be competition - would fit right in. Can also take place of a more conventional press/premiere tour partly, is doing festivals more or less expensive than bespoke premieres? From a fan POV, of course the possibility of seeing the film as early as late August/early September is exciting after the gut punch of a delay. Bond isn't nearly on the Marvel/Star Wars level of spoiler paranoia and bad actor leak risks, not nearly as much a concern. Like, no one leaked out whodunnit in Knives Out after TIFF, right? Or at least hasn't spammed the film's hashtags with it. In any case such a move, while unprecedented (as this whole situation is) could be a smart way to build *fresh* word of mouth back up, I would argue. After months upon months of delays, word of mouth from people actually seeing the film leading into it finally coming out, would be quite a thing. But, will these autumn festivals even go ahead with the virus situation? And more importantly, this would require a ton of confidence in the film being positively received. Months of mixed or negative reviews leading to release would be hard to overcome image wise, though Joker has showed to a certain extent that it doesn't matter as much?

Possible timeline:

- Venice world premiere: Sept 2-12

- TIFF North America/IMAX premiere: Sept 10-20

- LFF - Surprise Film slot as to not cannibalise Royal Albert Hall premiere? Oct 7-18

And close off with the usual RAH premiere in early November.

 

That’s a good idea! They really only need to make a splash with one of those festivals to get buzz going. Given Bond’s international appeal, Venice may be the most logical and conducive to a warm welcome. See the Joker’s reception at Venice compared to TIFF.

 

Could they even do a separate Bond film festival that dovetails into one of those other festivals with NTTD? Uni held a streaming concert just to premier the F9 trailer.

 

Things could get creative.

 

 

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I wonder if the extra 7 months will result in a tighter (or longer!) edit. What director wouldn't want to use the time to tinker just a bit more...

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1 hour ago, Burgess said:

Fukunaga just confirmed on his Instagram that the film is now done. Only things left to go are home media masters and the 3D version.

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NTTD wouldn't be the first time, a completed film has been delayed several months. Warner Bros delayed Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince by 8 months in order to have a guaranteed hit in the next year. 

 

I wonder if Universal had been distributing in the US as well as OS if they would have made the same decision to delay. 

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11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think they should have released the film in April. They will taking a hit of $30-50mn in marketing & $25-30mn Interest. That's roughly $55-80mn, which need additional gross of $125-180mn, which I don't think they were losing.

 

China is shut down but its not like film was going to earn significantly there which can be earned later as well as we have seen with many delayed release.

They were losing way more than 125-180 with the April date.

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11 hours ago, Burgess said:

 


But the loss in gross wasn’t just from China. If it had, I’d think they would be releasing in April. But most, if not all, of South East Asia is shuttered. Also parts of Europe and the Middle East. They were looking at a $300m loss, at least.


“...theaters across the world have been shuttered in recent weeks, stretching from Japan to Italy. That could have resulted in a minimum of 30 percent shaved off the final box office tallies — a possible $300 million out of a likely $1 billion global haul.”


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/mgm-take-30-million-hit-moving-bond-film-no-time-die-1282803


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I am sure that EON ran all the numbers very carefully before making this decision and decide that hit they would take by delaying would be smaller then that by sticking with the original release date. taking hit was inevitable, it was allabout deciding which course of action would result in the hit being as small as possible.

This is not to say they might be mistaken, but I am saying I would trust the judgement of professionals in the film industry over the speculation of some poster on a forum who probably could not run a street corner Lemonade stand successfully.

I enjoy second guessing and kibitzing the film industry as much as anybody, but I don't fool myself that I competent to run a studio.

Edited by dudalb
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3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

They were losing way more than 125-180 with the April date.

I repeat, they chose what they though was the lesser of two evils.

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I am sure that EON ran all the numbers very carefully before making this decision and decide that hit they would take by delaying would be smaller then that by sticking with the original release date. taking hit was inevitable, it was allabout deciding which course of action would result in the hit being as small as possible.
This is not to say they might be mistaken, but I am saying I would trust the judgement of professionals in the film industry over the speculation of some poster on a forum who probably could not run a street corner Lemonade stand successfully.
I enjoy second guessing and kibitzing the film industry as much as anybody, but I don't fool myself that I competent to run a studio.


We’re on the same page. They did the smart thing.


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9 hours ago, antovolk said:

Posted this on Twitter, some speculation to throw out there - could we see an autumn festival run happen? First off, the film - for once, for a major blockbuster - should actually be fully done to make that happen. Unlike previous Bonds with very very tight post production schedules. Secondly, the success of A Star is Born & Joker on the circuit - particularly the latter - surely has opened doors to other studio blockbusters to use that as a launchpad. While those were admittedly more awards-positioned in a way Bond may not be, we did have Knives Out... And with Bond being a more 'prestige' blockbuster franchise, festival ambitions - doesn't have to be competition - would fit right in. Can also take place of a more conventional press/premiere tour partly, is doing festivals more or less expensive than bespoke premieres? From a fan POV, of course the possibility of seeing the film as early as late August/early September is exciting after the gut punch of a delay. Bond isn't nearly on the Marvel/Star Wars level of spoiler paranoia and bad actor leak risks, not nearly as much a concern. Like, no one leaked out whodunnit in Knives Out after TIFF, right? Or at least hasn't spammed the film's hashtags with it. In any case such a move, while unprecedented (as this whole situation is) could be a smart way to build *fresh* word of mouth back up, I would argue. After months upon months of delays, word of mouth from people actually seeing the film leading into it finally coming out, would be quite a thing. But, will these autumn festivals even go ahead with the virus situation? And more importantly, this would require a ton of confidence in the film being positively received. Months of mixed or negative reviews leading to release would be hard to overcome image wise, though Joker has showed to a certain extent that it doesn't matter as much?

Possible timeline:

- Venice world premiere: Sept 2-12

- TIFF North America/IMAX premiere: Sept 10-20

- LFF - Surprise Film slot as to not cannibalise Royal Albert Hall premiere? Oct 7-18

And close off with the usual RAH premiere in early November.

Bond going for the Golden Lion.

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15 minutes ago, Burgess said:

 


We’re on the same page. They did the smart thing.


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And I suspect other major studios are running the numbers on their major releases in the next couple of months as we speak.

The real point of decision will be when it comes time to sign the contracts with the theaters;once you do that you are legally obligated to open the film on the date in the contracts or suffer some stiff finiancial penalties and a world of legal problem which studios want to avoid.

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Though I suspect that November has been, ever since "Goldeneye" the traditional month for a Bond film to open made the decision to delay a bit easier.

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Though I suspect that November has been, ever since "Goldeneye" the traditional month for a Bond film to open made the decision to delay a bit easier.


Oh, I’m sure. Having it open over the Thanksgiving Holiday also helps. Now an $88-90m opening looks more like a possible $100m


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1 hour ago, Burgess said:

 


Oh, I’m sure. Having it open over the Thanksgiving Holiday also helps. Now an $88-90m opening looks more like a possible $100m


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The Thanksgiving opening is a bit later then usual, normally the Bond films open earlier in November . I think the last few films they have chosen the weekend nearest Veteran's Day in the US (Nov.11).

Edited by dudalb

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The Thanksgiving opening is a bit later then usual, normally the Bond films open earlier in November . I think the last few films they have chosen the weekend nearest Veteran's Day in the US (Nov.11).


Die Another Day is the exception with a release date of November 22nd, 2002.




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11 hours ago, antovolk said:

Fukunaga just confirmed on his Instagram that the film is now done. Only things left to go are home media masters and the 3D version.

It's done...until it's not.  Most certainly there will be some more tinkering, now.  I just wish the original cut that exists at this moment could be preserved...

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2 hours ago, Burgess said:

 


Die Another Day is the exception with a release date of November 22nd, 2002.




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You are right.

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