Hei25 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 (edited) Thursday 18th January Estimates: 1. Coco 54.817 (-22%) Total = 703.579 Adm. 2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 21.680 Adm. (-22%) Total = 742.905 3. Insidious: The Last Key 20.410 Adm. *New 4. The Commuter 7.770 Adm. *New ... 6. Las Grietas de Jara 3.760 Adm. *New 7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 3.581 Adm. *New Huge hold for Coco on it's second thursday (Higher than Sing and Wreck it Ralph OD also almost on par with Moana's OD and above Tangled and Frozen 2nd Thursday). Last weekend weather was rainy and this looks preaty sunny and warm so it may affect it's weekend hold, but I imagine it falling a mere 28-33%, something great based on it's OW. Coco wlll reach 1M on it's 12 or 13 day of realease. Jumanji once again with another impressive hold, even that, Coco will outsell it on saturday. But everytime it's final estimatation is looking higher. Nice OD for Insidious TLK, it may top 100k admissions.- And local movie "Las Grietas de Jara" flopped, but Disney didn't expect to much from it based on it's low screen count. Edited January 19, 2018 by Hei25 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averagejoe Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 11 hours ago, Hei25 said: Thursday 18th January Estimates: 1. Coco 54.817 (-22%) Total = 703.579 Adm. 2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 21.680 Adm. (-22%) Total = 742.905 3. Insidious: The Last Key 20.410 Adm. *New 4. The Commuter 7.770 Adm. *New ... 6. Las Grietas de Jara 3.760 Adm. *New 7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 3.581 Adm. *New Huge hold for Coco on it's second thursday (Higher than Sing and Wreck it Ralph OD also almost on par with Moana's OD and above Tangled and Frozen 2nd Thursday). Last weekend weather was rainy and this looks preaty sunny and warm so it may affect it's weekend hold, but I imagine it falling a mere 28-33%, something great based on it's OW. Coco wlll reach 1M on it's 12 or 13 day of realease. Jumanji once again with another impressive hold, even that, Coco will outsell it on saturday. But everytime it's final estimatation is looking higher. Nice OD for Insidious TLK, it may top 100k admissions.- And local movie "Las Grietas de Jara" flopped, but Disney didn't expect to much from it based on it's low screen count. Does Coco have a chance to reach $15 million USD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 15 hours ago, averagejoe said: Does Coco have a chance to reach $15 million USD? $12 million USD seems to be locked, and it has a shot somewhere btw $13-13,5 (2.100.000-2.250.000) . But I don't ser it reaching 15 million USD (2.500.000-2.600.000 admissions). I really hope beeing wrong, and Coco get to that milestone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averagejoe Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Any numbers for Coco's second weekend and cumulative gross so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Weekend Estimates January 18th-21th # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Coco 2nd 260.020 403 -37% 909.226 2 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 2nd 107.828 283 -49% 829.121 3 Insidious: The Last Key New 87.055 190 - 87.055 4 The Commuter New 45.597 152 - 45.597 5 Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri New 24.493 94 - 24.493 6 Las Grietas de Jara New 23.398 92 - 23.398 7 Ferdinand 3rd 22.424 130 -59% 290.830 8 The Greatest Showman 4th 11.263 38 -54% 182.466 9 No Dormiras 2nd 10.736 109 -78% 80.999 10 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 6th 6.698 26 -63% 762.728 Strong second weekend for Coco despite a bigger drop than expected 'coz the diferent wheater from it's OW (Rainy before, and sunny and warm this weekend), weekdays forecast says that monday and thuesday may rain. Jumanji also was hit by the weater, and also was affected by the Soccer Derby btw the two most populars teams (Boca Juniors - River Plate). Coco's second weekend despite all the said factors was stronger than the OW from Wreck it Ralph, Sing and Moana; and was the strongest 2nd wknd from all the January animated hits. Coco is a big hit not doubt about it, right now is pacing 10% ahead of Frozen (1.943.000 adm total). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 On 6/1/2018 at 2:59 PM, Hei25 said: 2017 HIGHEST OPENING WEEKENDS (100.000+ ADMISSIONS~) 1 Fate of Furious 969.198 2 Despicable Me 3 742.377 3 Beuty and the Beast 654.827 4 It (2017) 648.708 5 Pirates of the Caribbean 5 419.925 6 Anabelle 2: Creation 415.700 7 Spiderman Homecoming 316.812 8 Cars 3 316.359 9 Justice League 303.684 10 Thor: Ragnarok 302.733 11 Transformers: The Last Knight 295.056 12 El Futbol o Yo (*) 289.513 13 Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi 282.235 14 Boss Baby 268.606 15 Fifty Shades Darker 265.872 16 Guardians of Galaxy Vol. 2 258.466 17 Logan 246.448 18 Sing 241.382 19 La Cordillera (*) 228.727 20 Moana 225.803 21 The Mummy 212.693 22 War of the Planet of The Apes 190.868 23 Mamá se fue de Viaje (*) 181.686 24 Wonder Woman 172.744 25 Nieve Negra (*) 171.619 26 Kong: Skull Island 170.318 27 Moises y los Diez Mandamientos 169.533 28 The Smurfs 3 167.988 29 Emoji The Movie 140.345 30 Los Padecientes (*) 133.786 31 Geostorm 129.332 32 Dunkirk 128.296 33 Assassin's Creed 127.772 34 Los que Aman Odian (*) 124.507 35 Rings 116.656 36 Lego Batman The Movie 108.950 (*) = Local Movies I'll continue with 2017's charts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hei25 said: I'll continue with 2017's charts Has there ever been a 1 million admissions OW? If not, do you think any 2018 film has a chance to eclipse that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 2017's Highest Multipliers in terms of admissions (Movies over 300.000 admissions total): Rank Movie Multi. OW Total 1 Mamá se fue de Viaje 9,21 181.686 1.673.525 2 Moana 6,53 225.803 1.474.056 3 Emoji The Movie 5,52 140.345 775.186 4 Boss Baby 5,22 268.606 1.401.539 5 Despicable Me 3 5,17 742.377 3.836.225 6 Munder on the Orient Express (**) 5,00 74.068 370.000 7 Split 4,86 98.749 479.903 8 La La Land 4,70 90.446 425.093 9 Sing 4,65 241.382 1.121.598 10 Cars 3 4,04 316.359 1.278.406 11 Nieve Negra (*) 4,02 171.619 690.393 12 El Futbol o Yo (*) 3,68 289.513 1.064.580 13 Lego Batman The Movie 3,61 108.950 393.511 14 Spiderman Homecoming 3,54 316.812 1.121.922 15 Kong: Skull Island 3,39 170.318 577.528 16 Logan 3,36 246.448 828.112 17 Wonder Woman 3,35 172.744 578.891 18 Rings 3,21 116.656 374.719 19 Justice League (**) 3,20 303.684 972.000 20 Thor: Ragnarok 3,19 302.733 966.306 21 The Mummy 3,18 212.693 676.901 22 Pirates of the Caribbean 5 3,18 419.925 1.336.159 23 Beuty and the Beast 3,13 654.827 2.048.409 24 Geostorm 3,05 129.332 394.119 25 Los Padecientes (*) 3,00 133.786 401.741 26 Assassin's Creed 2,97 127.772 380.020 27 Dunkirk 2,92 128.296 374.039 28 It (2017) 2,90 648.708 1.882.045 29 Anabelle 2: Creation 2,88 415.700 1.195.299 30 War of the Planet of The Apes 2,86 190.868 545.890 31 Fate of Furious 2,83 969.198 2.738.840 32 La Cordillera (*) 2,79 228.727 638.158 33 Los que Aman Odian (*) 2,78 124.507 345.936 34 Transformers: The Last Knight 2,76 295.056 815.266 35 Moises y los Diez Mandamientos 2,75 169.533 466.073 36 Fifty Shades Darker 2,74 265.872 729.789 37 Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi (**) 2,74 282.235 773.000 38 Guardians of Galaxy Vol. 2 2,70 258.466 698.080 39 The Smurfs 3 2,42 167.988 407.364 (*) = Local Movies (**) = Final Estimate Edited January 23, 2018 by Hei25 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2017's Top Ticket Selling Movies (300.000++): Rank MOVIE TOTAL 1 Despicable Me 3 3.836.225 2 Fate of Furious 2.738.840 3 Beuty and the Beast 2.048.409 4 It (2017) 1.882.045 5 Mamá se fue de Viaje (*) 1.673.525 6 Moana 1.474.056 7 Boss Baby 1.401.539 8 Pirates of the Caribbean 5 1.336.159 9 Cars 3 1.278.406 10 Anabelle 2: Creation 1.195.299 11 Spiderman Homecoming 1.121.922 12 Sing 1.121.598 13 El Futbol o Yo (*) 1.064.580 14 Justice League (**) 972.000 15 Thor: Ragnarok 966.306 16 Logan 828.112 17 Transformers: The Last Knight 815.266 18 Emoji The Movie 775.186 19 Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi (**) 773.000 20 Fifty Shades Darker 729.789 21 Guardians of Galaxy Vol. 2 698.080 22 Nieve Negra (*) 690.393 23 The Mummy 676.901 24 La Cordillera (*) 638.158 25 Wonder Woman 578.891 26 Kong: Skull Island 577.528 27 War of the Planet of The Apes 545.890 28 Split 479.903 29 Moises y los Diez Mandamientos 466.073 30 La La Land 425.093 31 The Smurfs 3 407.364 32 Los Padecientes (*) 401.741 33 Geostorm 394.119 34 Lego Batman The Movie 393.511 35 Assassin's Creed 380.020 36 Rings 374.719 37 Dunkirk 374.039 38 Munder on the Orient Express (**) 370.000 39 Los que Aman Odian (*) 345.936 (*) = Local Movies (**) = Final Estimate As a simple opinion, it calls my attention that the top 5 movies of the year are from very diferent one from each other.- 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, feasby007 said: Has there ever been a 1 million admissions OW? If not, do you think any 2018 film has a chance to eclipse that? Just Furious 7 was able to top the 1 million admissions OW (1.024.714 adm.) and just F7 and F8 were able to open above of 800.000 admissions. So answering your question, no there wont't be a movie this year that would open above 1 million, even above 800.000. I can't even see a movie able to achieve that in the next few years also, maybe Frozen 2 could brake the 800.000 OW barrier. Minions had itself a weekend over 800.000 but was it's 2nd weekend. Edited January 23, 2018 by Hei25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hei25 said: Just Furious 7 was able to top the 1 million admissions OW (1.024.714 adm.) and just F7 and F8 were able to open above of 800.000 admissions. So answering your question, no there wont't be a movie this year that would open above 1 million, even above 800.000. I can't even see a movie able to achieve that in the next few years also, maybe Frozen 2 could brake the 800.000 OW barrier. Minions had itself a weekend over 800.000 but was it's 2nd weekend. That's phenomenal! So just the furious serious has truly captured the eyes of Argentina on OW? My thought was whether Incredibles 2 could get any close to 800k maybe? How did Incredibles do there? Or was the market too underdeveloped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, feasby007 said: That's phenomenal! So just the furious serious has truly captured the eyes of Argentina on OW? My thought was whether Incredibles 2 could get any close to 800k maybe? How did Incredibles do there? Or was the market too underdeveloped? Furious franchise is huge here, but it's OW were on easter weekend so they had the help that thursday and friday were holidays. The Incredibles was a success with a total over 1.6 million admissions, but I have my doubts of how well The Incredibles 2 will do, at least it will best first movie total, but have un mind that in the same period Soccer World Cup will be the event that every Argentinian is waiting for. I expect an OW over 500k and a finish just above 2 million admissions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 (edited) Coco yesterday became the 1st Millionaire movie of the year (1.014.235 admissions). It needed just 13 days. The other january hits that needed less than 20 days were Frozen 15 and Tangled 19. On thursday or friday will outsell Wreck it Ralph and Sing total run.- Next week Jumanji may top that milestone too. Edited January 24, 2018 by Hei25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manny1234 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 It's amazing that Argentina ten years ago had an exchange rate of 1 USD = 3.19 to right now exchange rate of 1 USD = 19.64 and that has also had an effect on the box office using USD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 (edited) January 18th-24th January Estimates # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Coco 2nd 470.440 413 -28% 1.121.494 2 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 3rd 183.318 286 -43% 905.096 3 Insidious: The Last Key New 136.012 194 - 136.012 4 The Commuter New 69.501 160 - 69.501 5 Ferdinand 3rd 42.290 131 -51% 311.399 6 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri New 38.483 97 - 38.483 7 Las grietas de Jara New 33.531 95 - 33.531 8 The Greatest Showman 4th 18.405 39 -49% 189.608 9 No dormirás 2nd 16.720 110 -76% 87.178 10 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 6th 11.090 26 -61% 767.120 Coco once again led the week, having strong very strong weekdays (Wednesday with a massive 101.539 admissions) recovering from a steeper fall during the weekend. Now will face Tadeo Jones 2 (spanish animated movie), the true is that Coco will erase TJ2, the excelent WOM of Coco is spreading fast, so I expect a massive hold.- Jumanji as Coco recovered during the weekdays and had a nice hold, with a hold on the same % during this week, it will reach million admissions on wednesday.- Strong first week for Insidious TLK, with just one week it almost tied the gross from Insidious 3 total run (the highest grosser of the franchise, 'till next weekend). Today Wide Releases (Thursday 25th) -Maze Runner: The Death Cure (265 screens, including IMAX) -Tadeo Jones 2 -El Ultimo Traje (Local movie) -The Big Sick -Molly's Game Edited January 26, 2018 by Hei25 Estimates Update 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 (edited) January Animated Hits Comparisson (2010-2018) Wreck it Ralph Moana Sing* Tangled Frozen Coco OW 210.068 225.803 241.382 299.308 352.711 409.717 1st Wk Wkdays 148.555 164.584 138.907 209.265 229.537 241.057 1st Week Total 358.623 390.387 380.289 508.579 582.248 650.774 2nd WKND 126.838 (-40%) 154.422 (--32%) 178.021 (-26%) 190.477 (-36%) 243.617 (-31%) 260.020 (-37%) 2nd Wk Wkdays 101.335 (-32%) 124.422 (-24%) 108.809 (-22%) 161.700 (-23%) 164.642 (-28%) 210.420 (-13%) 2nd Week Total 228.173 (-36%) 278.844 (-29%) 286.830 (-25%) 352.177 (-31%) 408.259 (-30%) 470.440 (-28%) Total at this point 586.796 669.231 763.967 860.756 990.507 1.121.494 Coco's pacing 13% ahead of Frozen, every time 2 million admissions are looking very likely. On february 1st will face more famili movies competition.- Edited January 25, 2018 by Hei25 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 (edited) 18 hours ago, manny1234 said: It's amazing that Argentina ten years ago had an exchange rate of 1 USD = 3.19 to right now exchange rate of 1 USD = 19.64 and that has also had an effect on the box office using USD. At the same time that Argentinian Peso ER fell, the ticket price also increased in a avr. of 20% per year. On 2007 the avg. ticket price was 9.6 ARS, so a 3,1 USD (ER 2007 1 USD = 3,10 ARS) On 2017 the avb. ticket price was 101.5 ARS 2017 so 5.91 USD (ER 2017 1 USD = 15.8 to 18.55 ARS = Avg, 17.18 ARS) In 2017 ARS ER fell 17%, but avg. ticket price increased, while the ticket price increased 26% On 2018 the ARS ER is fluctuacting strong: 29/12/2017 - 1 USD = 18.55 ARS 23/01/2018 - 1 USD = 19.64 ARS 24/01/2018 - 1 USD = 19.93 ARS 25/01/2018 - 1 USD = 19.85 ARS A 7% change from the last bank day of last year and today.- The prices increase expectation is btw 15-18%, the less since 2005, so ticket prices may increase in this range.- The revenue from argentinta compared to other countries in the region is not because the ER, it's because the size of the market. For example last year Despicable Me 3 made 22 million USD with 3.850.000 admissions, in Mexico to reach that amount of groos it may need arround 9 million admissions, in Brazil also will need arround 4.5-5 Million to reach the same amount. Yet in Latinamerica Argentina is the 3rd Market, being the 4th most populated country (40.117.000 ppl.), Far behind Brazil and Mexico. And even for Colombia (46.500.000 ppl) is very dificult for movies to reach 10 million USD. So, the USD gross doesn't depend too much on the ER, is more related to the success of the movie. If a movie can gross over 3 million admissions there will be more movies over 20 million USD making the market a top 10 OS market for many movies. But that's yet dificult for the size of the market (from 1997 till nowadays just 9 movies sold over 3 million admissions). 2018 will be a funny year to follow, because many blockbuster movies are realeased but many of them will face Soccer World Cup. 2017 had 4 movies over 10 milion USD, let's see how many this year reaches.- Edited January 25, 2018 by Hei25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) Thursday 25th January Estimates: 1. Coco 50.555 adm. (-10%) Total = 1.173.059 adm. 2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24.709 *New 3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 14.676 adm. (-34%) Total = 919.923 adm. 4. Insidious TLK 11.328 (-46% Total = 147.653 adm. 5. The Commuter4.524 (-43%) Total = 74.149 adm. 6. Tadeo Jones 2 3.860 adm. *New 7. Molly's Game 3.296 adm. *New Coco as expected, had an amazing hold it's 3rd Thursday is higher than Wreck it Ralph and Sing OD. Weekend weather is so/so (when I talk about weather, I mean Greater Buenos Aires weather where 60% of the business is located) that's why I expect a strong weekend over 200.000 adm. Maze Runner 3 looks in good shape, and may achieve a OW over 100.000 adm. (Maze Runner 1 Total = 294.000 / Maze Runner 2 Total = 323.000). Jumanji experienced also a great hold and is looking in good shape to exceed the 1.000.000 milestone during this week.- Edited January 26, 2018 by Hei25 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hei25 said: Thursday 25th January Estimates: 1. Coco 50.555 adm. (-10%) Total = 1.173.059 adm. 2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24.709 *New 3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 14.676 adm. (-34%) Total = 919.923 adm. 4. Insidious TLK 11.328 (-46% Total = 147.653 adm. 5. The Commuter4.524 (-43%) Total = 74.149 adm. 6. Tadeo Jones 2 3.860 adm. *New 7. Molly's Game 3.296 adm. *New Coco as expected, had an amazing hold it's 3rd Thursday is higher than Wreck it Ralph and Sing OD. Weekend weather is so/so (when I talk about weather, I mean Greater Buenos Aires weather where 6% of the business is located) that's why I expect a strong weekend over 200.000 adm. Maze Runner 3 looks in good shape, and may achieve a OW over 100.000 adm. (Maze Runner 1 Total = 294.000 / Maze Runner 2 Total = 323.000). Jumanji experienced also a great hold and is looking in good shape to exceed the 1.000.000 milestone during this week.- Maze Runner 3 outgross or stay flat from the first or second? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, John Marston said: Maze Runner 3 outgross or stay flat from the first or second? Maze Runner Franchise Opening Day Comparisson: The Maze Runner = 11.130 adm. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials = 15.451 adm. Maze Runner: The Death Cure = 24.709 adm. MR3 beat both ODs but It may be more fronloaded than the previous entries, so let's wait if it can beat them in totals.- Edited January 26, 2018 by Hei25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...