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JJ-8

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Not doing a report this week as there was no weekend chart so just posting a quick few notes about this years boxing day releases.While not taking anything away from Tin Tin's opening which is strong. I've been doing some research on this weekend an i'm not so convinced that this week just gone was that good at all.Since 1997 only 2 other films have led the week that boxing day well and DID NOT open on boxing day. (there may be a third but that data is missing)- Titanic (1997)- Avatar (2009)- Meet the Parents (2000) ??? is a maybe..and now- Mission Impossible 4 (2011)now ok u say that boxing day has fallen on a monday making it hard for films that open boxing day to win the week BUT this data includes weeks where boxing day fell on a wednesday. FYI - meet the parents opened on the tuesday (boxing day was on a tuesday that year)...Another even sader point about this, is Mission Impossible 4 made 4m for the week. This is the lowest weekly total for a no.1 film for the week that boxing day fell since 2000. Once again this includes a boxing day falling on wednesday. We simply don't have a breakout this year for the boxing day films. while tin tin will do well i am sure, you would find in most other years prior to this, that it would be the no.2 film released on boxing day. NOT the top film. Last christmas in my opinion was also disappointing but this i feel is even slightly lower again. I know it has been mentioned we've done better than 2010's christmas. I'm not convinced looking at this data. Lets hope that sherlock holmes 2, alvin 3 and the muppets can save the box office or we might be heading into our own slump.At least next christmas will see us return to something better ... and then for the next 4 years running we should going great - at least one should break out each year... 2012 - hobbit 12013 - hobbit 22014 - avatar 22015 - avatar 3gotta love that line up for the next few boxing days :Das for this christmas.... is it that there were too many choices or were the choices simply not that good to start with. I really don't know. as i've noted before the only reason we probably have done better than last christmas is the sheer weight of films this christmas (as the saying goes if you don't have quality product, bombard the public and hope they turn up!In saying that, i saw tint tin and loved it. a very enjoyable film.- jajang

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On the prospects of the films in release .....Mission Impossible 4 - 10.2m to date - should be able to make a further 4m this following week. minimum from here should be 18m. 20m looks attainable, but considering sherlock 2 arrives on sunday, i think a final of 18m to 20m is where this will end. A much better result than the opening pointed to and is stronger than the first and third films. (will pass the third film thursday)Tin Tin - 3.9m for it's first 3 days isn't bad. I think a 3m to 4m OW is in order after this. A Total of 15m looks likely but i'm not willing to go much higher due to competition during january.HF2 - 2.5m in 3 days is also reasonable, but no where near the first film. i'd say a opening around 2m is on the cards and total around 10m.Puss in Boots - 2.3m for the week and is at 11.8m already. I am thinking this is still a good shot at 20m, but it's getting harder and looks to be winding in up in that elusive 19m to 20m area.Tower Heist - 2.2m is quite strong fro this film.... an opening around 2m looks likely and probably a 10m finish thanks to christmas.War Horse - 2m - also strong / possible breakout (i pegged this lower) - i'd say a finish 8m to 10m and even push to 15m or 16m if there is a push for oscars.NYE - 1.6m / 8.5m - will this get a boost from it's namesake day... we shall know in a few day... either way it will reach 10m and wind up with about 12m but if it get s a good boost this weekend then a final around 15m is possible which is actually quite close to valentines day final. given how low this opened, that result is very surprising.iron lady - 1.4m but a great average of 12k. possibly some expansion here ? i'm thinking a final of about 6m to 8m right now.we bought a zoo - i have to say this has disappointed with 1.4m and i think it got lost in the shuffle with too many releases this week. a Total under 5m could happen given the competition.Don 2 - 511k but a 20k average (on only 25 screens). nice average and easily the best in the top 20 (thats usually reserved for the top film of the week at this time of the year) ... not sure where this film came from really but i would expect some expansion on this one in the coming weeks if it can find screens.---------------------------this weekend is a tough one to call..only film opening is alvin 3 which doesn't open until sunday (making it a 2012 release here). i'd say tin tin should take the weekend at this stage with MI4 in second. i really have no idea what alvin 3 will do on sunday given it's performance stateside i'm hoping aussies trash this one too... it looks crap .... I have kids and i have no intention of taking them... the muppets will be getting my money ;) still it will make money no doubt...TW (LW) Movie - Prediction / Total (WIR)1 (2) The Adventures of Tin Tin - 3.6m / 7.5m2 (1) Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol - 2.2m / 12.5m3 (3) Happy Feet 2 - 2.2m / 4.6m4 (6) War Horse - 2.0m / 4.0m5 (5) Tower Heist - 1.9m / 4.1m* Alvin 3 - 1.1m / 1.1m (opens on sunday)

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Nice, could respond proper to above about Boxing day but don't have time atm,just with 2000 - MTP was Boxing day opening and that week Vertical limit (which opened on the thursday 21/12) was #1 & MTP boxing day #2(not too far under VL ), Chicken run wk3 was #3

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Nice, could respond proper to above about Boxing day but don't have time atm,just with 2000 - MTP was Boxing day opening and that week Vertical limit (which opened on the thursday 21/12) was #1 & MTP boxing day #2(not too far under VL ), Chicken run wk3 was #3

still i think my point is valid - i wasn't sure whether VL was #1 - the data appears to missing from that weekend I guess we can all extrapolate from the surrounding weekends. either way VL was only no.1 by default there since MTP only had 1 day of play. take this out and the only other times it's happened is when our all time 2 top films ever ($) are in their 2nd weekends. hmmmmmm... while this seems to be good company to be in for MI4, it's in this for all the wrong reasons. none of the films have really stood out this year.... (for bd releases.)oh and BD1 will not make it to 30m now... it's shot it's chances as of this weekened dipping > 50%
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Don 2 - 511k but a 20k average (on only 25 screens). nice average and easily the best in the top 20 (thats usually reserved for the top film of the week at this time of the year) ... not sure where this film came from really but i would expect some expansion on this one in the coming weeks if it can find screens.

I don't think it will be expanding. If it follows the usual trend for Bollywood movies, it will have big drops next weekend onwards.
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still i think my point is valid - i wasn't sure whether VL was #1 - the data appears to missing from that weekend I guess we can all extrapolate from the surrounding weekends. either way VL was only no.1 by default there since MTP only had 1 day of play. take this out and the only other times it's happened is when our all time 2 top films ever ($) are in their 2nd weekends. hmmmmmm... while this seems to be good company to be in for MI4, it's in this for all the wrong reasons. none of the films have really stood out this year.... (for bd releases.)oh and BD1 will not make it to 30m now... it's shot it's chances as of this weekened dipping > 50%

Yeah agree no stand out but there were never going to be from early on nothing was seen to be a standout, also with 2000 MTP had 2 days(Boxday was tues(no pub hol wed) and mtp didn't have screening on xmas day) but get your point.Actually have to go see what thr day after Boxing day is like when its a week day and not a pub hol(even though a lot people arent working anyway)
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Based on recent times, I have a feeling we are going to be in for a very healthy holiday period.Last year seemed to disappoint, with maybe Tangled being the standout, but I really dont think we are going to experience the sequel drop-off many other places currently have. Just my thoughts..What do you guys think?

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Alvin 3:1.4M....."It ranked top after the Jan 1 opening day in Australia generated $1.4m from 366"(Screen Daily).

I would say that is quite a strong opening day for Alvin 3! Alvin 2 had a 2.5 day opening (only some cinemas are open Christmas) and made AU$3.3m.
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