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By JJ-8, in International Box Office

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JJ-8 Blockbuster

JJ-8

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Showdown for OZ - i'll do this properly later on...

 

21 Jump Street vs Miss Congeniality vs Alice in Wonderland vs Oz

 

1: 4.1m vs 4.3m vs 10.4m vs 4.8m

2: 2.6m/8.1m vs 3.5m/9.0m vs 6.5m/20.5m vs 3.0m/9.3m

 

Totals: 15.2m vs 20.0m vs 37.8m vs 9.3m

 

Looking at this it does appear that a total around 20m is on the cards.  Miss C's hold in the first weekend was an aberration compared to the rest of her run which fell in the 30's to 40's)  Oz should at least match that and given it gets easter 1 week earlier we should see enough of a boost to see us past 20m.  25m is however looking to be a stretch right now and 30m is unlikely given the hold this weekend.  21JS shows we are targeting >> 15m which is a good sign for 20m also.  As expected we are well behind Alice here and falling further.  After looking at this more closely and comparing to the US... In the USA Alice compared to OZ was only a 31% drop off while in australia we saw a much steeper 54% drop.  Hence the dissappointment here in it's result.  I suspect having Depp in your film and an australian in the lead role (mia) helped alice a little here more than expected.

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JJ-8 Blockbuster

JJ-8

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Upcoming films....

 

this thursday :

 

Die Hard 5 ~ not expecting a huge opening 2m to 3m ?

Jack the giant slayer ~ not expecting much... 1m to 1.5m ?

 

28th March (Easter Weekend)

GI Joe 2 - 5m ? am i too optimistic for this one ?

Return to Nim's Island (Bindi Irwin cinematic debut :P ) ~ 1m to 1.5m 

The Croods ~ i'm just not seeing this being very big... 2m

 

4th April

Jurassic Park 3D ~ I think this might surprise ... 1m to 2m OW

Identify Theif - 2m

 

11th April 

Escape from planet earth - 1m

Oblivion ~ 6m (I've got a good feeling about this one - even though i don't like cruise)

Scary Movie 5 ~ please fail - 100k ... ok realistically, 1m 

 

not a lot on the 18th

 

and finally 24th april (wednesday before anzac day)

Iron Man 3 ~ i really have no idea what this could end up with...  but watch out!  

 

IM2 got 9.5m here.... The Avengers got 13m after a 6m OD before the weekend....   Given IM3 is opening the extra day early, could lightning strike twice here... I don't think IM3 can reach avenger levels but it should easily surpasse the 2nd films OW... so i'm going with a 11m OW after a 4m OD

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POLYLOVE Sleeper Hit

POLYLOVE

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Upcoming films....

 

this thursday :

 

Die Hard 5 ~ not expecting a huge opening 2m to 3m ?

Jack the giant slayer ~ not expecting much... 1m to 1.5m ?

 

28th March (Easter Weekend)

GI Joe 2 - 5m ? am i too optimistic for this one ?

Return to Nim's Island (Bindi Irwin cinematic debut :P ) ~ 1m to 1.5m 

The Croods ~ i'm just not seeing this being very big... 2m

 

4th April

Jurassic Park 3D ~ I think this might surprise ... 1m to 2m OW

Identify Theif - 2m

 

11th April 

Escape from planet earth - 1m

Oblivion ~ 6m (I've got a good feeling about this one - even though i don't like cruise)

Scary Movie 5 ~ please fail - 100k ... ok realistically, 1m 

 

not a lot on the 18th

 

and finally 24th april (wednesday before anzac day)

Iron Man 3 ~ i really have no idea what this could end up with...  but watch out!  

 

IM2 got 9.5m here.... The Avengers got 13m after a 6m OD before the weekend....   Given IM3 is opening the extra day early, could lightning strike twice here... I don't think IM3 can reach avenger levels but it should easily surpasse the 2nd films OW... so i'm going with a 11m OW after a 4m OD

DH5 and Jack will open on the same day? :o

 

That's not good idea...

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Robertron Summer Tentpole

Robertron

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Die Hard around $3 ish. Jack around $1.Escape from planet earth and Adventures in Zambizia open on the easter weekend here..GI Joe I think can hit $5..

Yep - they're marketing the crap out of Joe.It has tie ins with EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE!
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JJ-8 Blockbuster

JJ-8

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just to temper our enthusiastic predictions for gi joe 2 but the first gi opened in 2nd place in 2009 behind the ugly truth for 2.8m.  it would up just past 8m in total... 

 

a 5m opening here would be an amazing result for this film... but for some reason this film just seems better positioned, better marketed and just well frankly better overall...   the unusual part of this is the fact the original film didn't get the outstanding WOM that happens when u see a large bump in the 2nd film... 

 

i'm sticking by my prediction of a 5m opening but the first film points to a very different picture....

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Robertron Summer Tentpole

Robertron

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just to temper our enthusiastic predictions for gi joe 2 but the first gi opened in 2nd place in 2009 behind the ugly truth for 2.8m.  it would up just past 8m in total... a 5m opening here would be an amazing result for this film... but for some reason this film just seems better positioned, better marketed and just well frankly better overall...   the unusual part of this is the fact the original film didn't get the outstanding WOM that happens when u see a large bump in the 2nd film... i'm sticking by my prediction of a 5m opening but the first film points to a very different picture....

I know exactly what you mean, this just seems to have a much bigger marketing campaign and its everywhere.Although I'm not going $5m high.. 3.7m - 10.3m
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