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Looks like perfectly in line with US domestic OW projections of 46m. 

 

Slightly steeper per drop than I expected for Dory. Will review with actuals to see what that means for 50m

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Most Popular Films For Period Weekend, July 14 - 17, 2016
WIR = Weeks In Release
No WIR Title $ %
Total $
1 1 GHOSTBUSTERS (PG), SONY PICTURES [493/ $9,539] 4,702,647 N/A
4,855,868
2 2 THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (M), ROADSHOW [271/ $9,012] 2,442,376 -43%
8,266,433
3 5 FINDING DORY (G), WALT DISNEY [262/ $9,297] 2,435,853 -52%
45,172,792
4 3 THE BFG (PG), WALT DISNEY [355/ $5,443] 1,932,250 -42%
12,327,829
5 3 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (M), UNIVERSAL [276/ $6,052] 1,670,418 -46%
13,223,335
6 2 MIKE AND DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES (MA15+), FOX [260/ $5,576] 1,449,696 -42%
4,897,720
7 3 ICE AGE: COLLISION COURSE (G), FOX [327/ $3,715] 1,214,683 -45%
10,617,110
8 8 HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE (PG), MADMAN [144/ $3,548] 510,948 -20%
9,302,609
9 5 ME BEFORE YOU (PG), WARNER BROS [180/ $2,168] 390,195 -53%
11,562,611
10 4 INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE (M), FOX [216/ $1,741] 376,085 -64%
11,329,886
11 1 OUR KIND OF TRAITOR (MA15+), STUDIOCANAL [53/ $5,201] 275,679 N/A
278,873
12 2 SULTAN (M), MINDBLOWING FILMS [25/ $8,141] 203,520 -68%
1,214,596
13 1 SING STREET (M), ROADSHOW [41/ $2,928] 120,039 N/A
170,146
14 2 COLD WAR 2 (MA15+), MAGNUM FILMS [14/ $8,322] 116,501 -31%
393,680
15 2 GOLDSTONE (M), TRANSMISSION [43/ $2,642] 113,608 -38%
533,744
16 7 NOW YOU SEE ME 2 (M), ENTERTAINMENT ONE [35/ $2,442] 85,466 -44%
9,522,906
17 6 THE CONJURING 2 (MA15+), WARNER BROS [44/ $1,912] 84,115 -65%
10,679,498
18 2 MAGGIE`S PLAN (M), SONY PICTURES [14/ $4,619] 64,669 -33%
234,911
19 6 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: OUT OF THE SHADOWS (PG), PARAMOUNT [62/ $950] 58,914 -68%
6,443,194
20 1 SO YOUNG 2: NEVER GONE (PG), CHINALION FILM [13/ $3,770] 49,007 N/A
49,007
 
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Reasonable start for GB ... 15m total possible ?

 

see below for the updated charts for FD.  Ice Age 5 is now trailing all of the 4 previous films at the same point.  (way less than half of the 3rd or 4th films which were massive here).  Given it's performance here and it doesn't even face Pets in Australia, I am not seeing a strong opening the US anymore.

 

 

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Animated Hits

 

Dory is on a will it or won't crusade for 50m in Australia (similar to the US will it or won't it get to 50m.)  Unlike the US, FD is still only the 2nd biggest animated film here.  It will need 50.4m to pass Shrek 2's monster result here before it's #1 and as noted i'm on the fence whether FD can reach the threshold.  Oh and over the weekend, Finding Dory finally passed Deadpool over the weekend and became the biggest film of 2016.

 

Wk

Finding Dory

Toy Story 3

Finding Nemo

Shrek 2

Shrek the Third

Release Date

16-Jun-2016

24-Jun-2010

28-Aug-2003

17-Jun-2004

7-Jun-2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekend 1:

10.238m/10.2m

7.408m/7.5m

8.039m/8.2m

13.160m/13.6m

10.338m/10.3m

Scns/Ave

524/19,539

480/15,534

399/20,148

437/30,114

477/21,674

Weekend 2:

7.547m/20.7m

6.422m/18.4m

5.985m/15.9m

8.503m/25.3m

5.241m/20.0m

%Drop

-27%

-13%

-26%

-35%

-49%

Weekend 3:

5.534m/30.5m

6.361m/30.3m

3.901m/21.1m

5.308m/34.6m

2.746m/23.8m

Weekend 4:

5.055m/40.4m

3.378m/36.7m

2.451m/24.9m

4.258m/42.3m

1.849m/27.0m

Weekend 5:

2.436m/45.2m

1.332m/38.9m

2.156m/28.7m

2.134m/46.2m

1.705m/30.3m

Weekend 6:

 

1.006m/40.2m

2.180m/33.1m

1.050m/47.9m

1.017m/32.5m

Weekend 7:

 

547.3k/41.1m

1.078m/35.3m

662.7k/48.9m

445.2k/33.3m

Weekend 8:

 

362.8k/41.7m

393.3k/35.9m

364.2k/49.5m

106.8k/33.5m

Weekend 9:

 

168.3k/42.0m

254.2k/36.4m

220.1k/49.8m

35.6k/33.6m

Weekend 10:

 

93.3k/42.2m

158.2k/36.6m

135.8k/50.0m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL:

45.173m

42.416m

37.395m

50.388m

33.727m

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Just now, DeeCee said:

I agree. This drop for Dory is going to make hitting Shrek 2 very close. 

 

It still trails Shrek 2 by 1m at the same point but it appears to have stronger legs to date than Shrek 2 did and is now earning / catching shrek week in week out.  I suspect Dory can do it but it's going to be near thing.  (I think Dory will land between 49.8m and 51m in the end)

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@RthHow was the Thursday for Star Trek Beyond?

 

Most Popular Films For Period Week, July 14 - 20, 2016
WIR = Weeks In Release
No WIR Title $ %
Total $
1 1 GHOSTBUSTERS (PG), SONY PICTURES [493/ $12,124] 5,977,276 N/A
6,130,497
2 2 THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (M), ROADSHOW [272/ $11,802] 3,210,061 -45%
9,038,367
3 5 FINDING DORY (G), WALT DISNEY [262/ $12,016] 3,148,077 -57%
45,913,616
4 3 THE BFG (PG), WALT DISNEY [355/ $6,997] 2,483,904 -49%
12,888,941
5 3 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (M), UNIVERSAL [276/ $7,719] 2,130,370 -49%
13,685,833
6 2 MIKE AND DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES (MA15+), FOX [260/ $7,209] 1,874,431 -44%
5,325,026
7 3 ICE AGE: COLLISION COURSE (G), FOX [323/ $4,929] 1,592,090 -53%
10,995,416
8 8 HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE (PG), MADMAN [150/ $4,705] 705,785 -25%
9,497,919
9 5 ME BEFORE YOU (PG), WARNER BROS [181/ $3,034] 549,223 -54%
11,734,953
10 4 INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE (M), FOX [218/ $2,309] 503,406 -64%
11,457,963
11 1 OUR KIND OF TRAITOR (MA15+), STUDIOCANAL [53/ $7,147] 378,814 N/A
382,008
12 2 SULTAN (M), MINDBLOWING FILMS [26/ $9,915] 257,796 -70%
1,268,872
13 1 SING STREET (M), ROADSHOW [41/ $4,052] 166,131 N/A
220,079
14 2 COLD WAR 2 (MA15+), MAGNUM FILMS [14/ $11,827] 165,576 -40%
442,755
15 2 GOLDSTONE (M), TRANSMISSION [43/ $3,697] 158,959 -40%
579,095
16 7 NOW YOU SEE ME 2 (M), ENTERTAINMENT ONE [35/ $3,391] 118,673 -46%
9,556,113
17 6 THE CONJURING 2 (MA15+), WARNER BROS [43/ $2,621] 112,701 -66%
10,710,978
18 2 MAGGIE`S PLAN (M), SONY PICTURES [14/ $6,258] 87,614 -34%
257,856
19 6 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: OUT OF THE SHADOWS (PG), PARAMOUNT [62/ $1,235] 76,582 -69%
6,457,780
20 1 SO YOUNG 2: NEVER GONE (PG), CHINALION FILM [13/ $5,227] 67,946 N/A
67,946
Edited by DeeCee
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57 minutes ago, Rth said:

WE looking like

STD 4m (ST09 4.6, STID 5.2), WYNGC 2.4 (-48), LOT 1.2, LO 1.1, FD 950k(-60)

 

Ok start for STB but I really hoped for more.  I must say paramount really dropped the balled and missed an opportunity especially with the 50th this year. Terribly marketed in my mind. 

 

Not a great hold hold for WYNGC :( thought it hold to about 40% here. Though I guess the end of the holidays might have impacted. 

 

Dorys drop all but kills of any chance for 50m. It will likely end around 49m without a major push now. 

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The new film opening between $4-5m continues for a 5th weekend. 

 

Most Popular Films For Period Weekend, July 21 -24, 2016
WIR = Weeks In Release
No WIR Title $ %
Total $
1 1 STAR TREK BEYOND (M), PARAMOUNT [539/ $7,425] 4,001,902 N/A
4,140,257
2 2 GHOSTBUSTERS (PG), SONY PICTURES [417/ $5,872] 2,448,729 -48%
8,579,412
3 3 THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (M), ROADSHOW [260/ $4,984] 1,295,802 -47%
10,338,074
4 1 LIGHTS OUT (M), WARNER BROS [170/ $6,552] 1,113,903 N/A
1,113,903
5 6 FINDING DORY (G), WALT DISNEY [271/ $3,545] 960,633 -61%
46,920,821
6 4 THE BFG (PG), WALT DISNEY [285/ $2,973] 847,167 -56%
13,745,321
7 4 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (M), UNIVERSAL [228/ $3,529] 804,545 -52%
14,485,892
8 3 MIKE AND DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES (MA15+), FOX [223/ $3,131] 698,252 -52%
6,023,298
9 1 LOVE & FRIENDSHIP (PG), TRANSMISSION [84/ $5,397] 453,359 N/A
481,434
10 1 BATMAN: THE KILLING JOKE (MA15+), WARNER BROS [145/ $3,051] 442,331 N/A
442,331
11 4 ICE AGE: COLLISION COURSE (G), FOX [259/ $1,570] 406,634 -67%
11,412,639
12 9 HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE (PG), MADMAN [139/ $2,659] 369,562 -28%
9,867,481
13 2 OUR KIND OF TRAITOR (MA15+), STUDIOCANAL [57/ $3,515] 200,370 -27%
582,378
14 6 ME BEFORE YOU (PG), WARNER BROS [133/ $1,367] 181,818 -54%
11,920,444
15 5 INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE (M), FOX [105/ $942] 98,861 -74%
11,556,385
16 2 SING STREET (M), ROADSHOW [32/ $2,562] 81,975 -32%
301,372
17 3 GOLDSTONE (M), TRANSMISSION [41/ $1,615] 66,196 -42%
645,291
18 3 SULTAN (M), MINDBLOWING FILMS [21/ $2,581] 54,203 -73%
1,323,075
19 3 COLD WAR 2 (MA15+), MAGNUM FILMS [11/ $4,846] 53,302 -54%
496,057
20 3 MAGGIE`S PLAN (M), SONY PICTURES [15/ $2,608] 39,120 -40%
296,976

 

Edited by DeeCee
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On 26 July 2016 at 9:43 AM, DeeCee said:

@JJ-8I think we can rule out $50m for Dory now.

Yeah, bar some kind of crazy holds which it hasn't shown to date, 5 is dead at this point.  I think it wind up close to 49m. 

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Top 5:

 

1. Jason Bourne 7.6m. Excellent opening. 80% stronger than legacy. Biggest of the franchise topping Ultimatums 6.2m ow in 2007. 

 

2. Star Trek Beyond 1.7m/6.9m after a slow opening a 56% crash in the 2nd weekend isn't good news for 2nd sequel of the reboot franchise. Paramount have their work cut out to save this franchise. 

 

3. Andre Rieus 2016 Maastricht Concert Movie 1.4m. A little surprise here nice ow.  Prob a 1 wk wonder but yeah. 

 

4. Ghostbusters 1.3m/10.4m another 46% dip. Not great holds but still it's made 10m. Something I think STB might struggle to reach now.

 

5. Lights out 890k. / 2.2m. 2nd week hold of -27%. Excellent hold. Seems to happen with well reviewed horror films. Low opening but good holds. (See paranormal activity as an example)

 

 

 

 

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After 5 weekends of ID4 2, Central Intelligence, Tarzan, Ghostbusters and Star Trek Beyond all opening to the Domestic equivalent of USD40-50m Jason Bourne opens to the equivalent of USD70-80m.

 

Most Popular Films For Period Weekend, July 28 - 31, 2016
WIR = Weeks In Release
No WIR Title $ %
Total $
1 1 JASON BOURNE (M), UNIVERSAL [554/ $13,891] 7,695,403 N/A
7,696,843
2 2 STAR TREK BEYOND (M), PARAMOUNT [403/ $4,383] 1,766,483 -56%
7,010,273
3 1 ANDRE RIEU`S 2016 MAASTRICHT CONCERT (EX), CINEMA LIVE [130/ $11,165] 1,451,451 N/A
1,451,451
4 3 GHOSTBUSTERS (PG), SONY PICTURES [330/ $4,086] 1,348,345 -45%
10,421,155
5 2 LIGHTS OUT (M), WARNER BROS [175/ $4,645] 812,822 -27%
2,265,997
6 4 THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (M), ROADSHOW [232/ $2,820] 654,323 -50%
11,378,850
7 7 FINDING DORY (G), WALT DISNEY [229/ $2,082] 476,753 -50%
47,621,711
8 5 THE BFG (PG), WALT DISNEY [219/ $2,042] 447,121 -47%
14,354,367
9 4 MIKE AND DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES (MA15+), FOX [176/ $2,138] 376,360 -46%
6,591,405
10 5 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (M), UNIVERSAL [183/ $2,011] 368,063 -54%
15,063,421
11 2 LOVE & FRIENDSHIP (PG), TRANSMISSION [87/ $3,882] 337,743 -26%
1,091,057
12 10 HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE (PG), MADMAN [132/ $2,007] 264,981 -28%
10,264,487
13 1 BAMBUKAT (PG), MINDBLOWING FILMS [17/ $14,111] 239,887 N/A
239,887
14 5 ICE AGE: COLLISION COURSE (G), FOX [155/ $999] 154,861 -62%
11,621,010
15 3 OUR KIND OF TRAITOR (MA15+), STUDIOCANAL [72/ $1,445] 104,029 -48%
751,937
16 1 DISHOOM (M), EROS AUSTRALIA [20/ $4,802] 96,048 N/A
96,048
17 7 ME BEFORE YOU (PG), WARNER BROS [94/ $974] 91,513 -50%
12,101,864
18 1 EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT (M), PALACE [14/ $6,099] 85,390 N/A
202,281
19 1 LEAGUE OF GODS (M), SONY PICTURES [16/ $4,291] 68,662 N/A
68,662
20 4 GOLDSTONE (M), TRANSMISSION [62/ $870] 53,949 -19%
726,748
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From Rth in the SS overseas thread:

 

9 minutes ago, Rth said:

AUS/NZ opening

 

NZ

-2nd biggest OD 2016 (Behind BvS), 

-4th biggest  SH OD (Behind TA,IM3,BvS)

 

AUS

-2nd biggest OD 2016 (Behind BvS)

-5th biggest SH OD (Behind TA, TDKR,BvS, IM3), 3rd biggest Non-Hol(School and or public) SH OD 

 

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